Rice Production: 2013/2014 rice production is estimated at 8.3 mmt, a 3 percent increase from the previous year. 2014/2015 production is forecast up 2 percent to 8.5 mmt on increased area. While the rice price is up slightly, growers are concerned that the increasing costs of production will shrink any profit margin seen from increased prices. Another concern for the industry is that the minimum price set by the government is unrealistically low.

Rice Trade: MY 2013/2014 imports are estimated at 700,000 mt and exports at 900,000 mt, in line with yearly trends. Brazil is concerned with the United States' recent policy changes to ease trade restrictions with Cuba. The industry is worried that the United States will be more competitive than Brazil due its proximity and lower shipping costs. Cuba constituted 11 percent of Brazil's rice exports in 2014 and was its third largest export market behind Venezuela and Senegal. Brazil recently won a highly contested Iraqi tender of 40,000 metric tons, even though the price was higher than U.S. rice.

Rice Consumption: 2014/2015 consumption is forecast at 7.95 mmt, a less than one percent increase from the previous year. With a growing middle class, Brazilians are consuming more meals outside the home, which allows for more options outside of rice. However, population growth is keeping consumption steady with a slight upward trend and offsetting any reductions cause by the growing middle class

Rice, Milled

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Apr 2012

Apr 2013

Apr 2014

Brazil

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

2,390

2,390

2,400

2,420

2,400

2,450

Beginning Stocks

540

540

528

528

728

728

Milled Production

8,037

8,037

8,300

8,300

8,300

8,500

Rough Production

11,819

11,819

12,206

12,206

12,206

12,500

Milling Rate (.9999)

6,800

6,800

6,800

6,800

6,800

6,800

MY Imports

641

641

700

700

700

700

TY Imports

712

712

700

700

700

700

TY Imp. from U.S.

1

1

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

9,218

9,218

9,528

9,528

9,728

9,928

MY Exports

840

840

900

900

900

900

TY Exports

830

830

840

800

800

800

Consumption and Residual

7,850

7,850

7,900

7,900

7,900

7,950

Ending Stocks

528

528

728

728

928

1,078

Total Distribution

9,218

9,218

9,528

9,528

9,728

9,928

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA