Post increases Argentina's 2014/15 estimated peanut production area up six percent to 385,000 hectares, based on farmers' planting decisions to put additional land into production. Production is estimated at 1.05 mmt, based on estimated area planted to peanuts and historic yield trends. Historic yield trends should be a decent production indicator as precipitation has been average, plantings were slightly late in comparison with past years, and the current crop enjoys strong vegetative health indices, with Córdoba province (responsible for approximately 90 percent of national production) reporting 80 percent of the crop between "excellent" and "very good."

The Russia Factor: The Russian Federation accounted for 12 percent of Argentina's peanut exports and three percent of Argentina's total exports. Analysts believe that the estimated 70 percent devaluation of the Russian ruble over 2014 will reduce Argentina's ability to export to Russia in 2015.

Exports are being reduced to 600,000 mt. Local FOB prices for blanched peanuts ranged between US$154 and US$158 in April-November, 2014, in contrast to the same period in 2013 when FOB prices ranged between US$160 and US$168. These prices were calculated at the official exchange rate of US$1=ARS8.6. The market's parallel rate from 2013 to 2014, however, has also increased its divergence from the official rate, leading to even slimmer margins for peanut exporters. Export volumes, but especially values, are likely to experience the impact of prices and the Russian devaluation.

Oilseed, Peanut

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Mar 2012

Mar 2013

May 2014

Argentina

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Planted

380

380

380

380

360

385

Area Harvested

380

380

378

378

360

382

Beginning Stocks

523

523

713

713

875

875

Production

1,016

1,016

997

997

1,000

1,050

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,539

1,539

1,710

1,710

1,875

1,925

MY Exports

585

585

585

585

700

600

MY Exp. to EU

450

450

420

420

465

450

Crush

211

211

220

220

250

220

Food Use Dom. Cons.

20

20

20

20

22

20

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

15

10

Total Dom. Cons.

241

241

250

250

287

250

Ending Stocks

713

713

875

875

888

1,075

Total Distribution

1,539

1,539

1,710

1,710

1,875

1,925

1000 HA, 1000 MT