Japan. Corn Update. Jan 2015 March 10, 2015
Recovering from the decline in Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY; April-March) 2012 and JFY2013, corn utilization in compound feed gradually increased in the first half of JFY2014 (April-September), reaching the JFY 2011 level of just over 45 percent, and displacing the use of sorghum and wheat. The United States has recovered the import market share lost after the 2012 drought, maintaining over 90 percent of the share since May 2014 for feed corn and since March 2014 for food corn. PS&Ds for corn, rice wheat and barley have been revised to reflect final 2014 production data and MY2013/14 import statistics.
Overall Market Situation
Updated feed production statistics and a detailed breakdown of feed ingredient utilization ratios follow. Recovering from a decline in Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY; April-March) 2012 and JFY2013, corn utilization gradually increased in the first half of JFY2014 (April-September), reaching the JFY 2011 level of just over 45 percent, and displacing the use of sorghum and wheat. Rice utilization gradually increased to 3.84 percent in the first half of JFY2014, higher than barley for the first time in at least 10 years.
Feed Utilization by Ingredients
Japan Fiscal Year | Corn | Sorghum | Wheat | Wheat Flour | Barley | Rice | Rye | Other Grains | DDGS | Non-grain Ingredients | TOTAL |
49.50% | 5.80% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 3.20% | 1.20% | 1.10% | 0.50% | 37.80% | 100.00% | ||
2005 | 11,894,303 | 1,335,574 | 101,539 | 122,738 | 792,159 | 325,605 | 233,518 | 119,150 | NA | 9,228,722 | 24,153,308 |
49.20% | 5.50% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 3.30% | 1.30% | 1.00% | 0.50% | 38.20% | 100.00% | ||
2006 | 12,017,330 | 1,280,438 | 103,640 | 129,212 | 826,682 | 425,942 | 219,254 | 126,810 | NA | 9,291,274 | 24,420,582 |
49.20% | 5.20% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 3.40% | 1.70% | 0.90% | 0.50% | 38.00% | 100.00% | ||
2007 | 12,005,863 | 1,137,809 | 95,075 | 131,695 | 859,952 | 557,571 | 152,506 | 143,979 | NA | 9,434,064 | 24,518,514 |
49.00% | 4.60% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 3.50% | 2.30% | 0.60% | 0.60% | 38.50% | 100.00% | ||
2008 | 12,059,732 | 1,240,344 | 111,597 | 145,387 | 859,024 | 468,000 | 60,739 | 153,138 | NA | 9,449,421 | 24,547,382 |
49.10% | 5.10% | 0.50% | 0.60% | 3.50% | 1.90% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 38.50% | 100.00% | ||
2009 | 11,908,859 | 1,722,923 | 164,014 | 136,567 | 911,019 | 256,020 | 53,924 | 145,614 | NA | 9,554,496 | 24,853,436 |
47.90% | 6.90% | 0.70% | 0.50% | 3.70% | 1.00% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 38.40% | 100.00% | ||
2010 | 11,614,834 | 1,464,181 | 223,429 | 135,379 | 901,680 | 401,463 | 103,389 | 152,545 | 219,189 | 9,321,592 | 24,537,681 |
47.30% | 6.00% | 0.90% | 0.60% | 3.70% | 1.60% | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.90% | 38.00% | 100.00% | |
2011 | 10,935,808 | 1,413,787 | 402,609 | 151,537 | 878,047 | 652,573 | 74,028 | 149,393 | 362,970 | 9,218,996 | 24,239,748 |
45.10% | 5.80% | 1.70% | 0.60% | 3.60% | 2.70% | 0.30% | 0.60% | 1.50% | 38.00% | 100.00% | |
2012 | 10,317,271 | 1,653,366 | 965,993 | 159,886 | 900,739 | 472,131 | 16,739 | 150,236 | 426,965 | 9,053,078 | 24,116,404 |
42.80% | 6.90% | 4.00% | 0.70% | 3.70% | 2.00% | 0.10% | 0.60% | 1.80% | 37.50% | 100.00% | |
2013 | 10,445,875 | 1,511,073 | 853,214 | 158,600 | 896,174 | 512,132 | 16,870 | 146,597 | 472,613 | 8,925,813 | 23,938,963 |
43.64% | 6.31% | 3.56% | 0.66% | 3.74% | 2.14% | 0.07% | 0.61% | 1.97% | 37.30% | 100.00% | |
2014/April | 917,235 | 62,998 | 42,945 | 13,596 | 72,117 | 65,161 | 1,378 | 10,734 | 42,831 | 732,800 | 1,961,795 |
46.80% | 3.20% | 2.20% | 0.70% | 3.70% | 3.30% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 2.20% | 37.40% | 100.00% | |
May | 928,828 | 63,901 | 40,263 | 13,585 | 72,312 | 68,367 | 1,200 | 10,857 | 43,972 | 740,113 | 1,983,398 |
46.80% | 3.20% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 3.60% | 3.40% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 2.20% | 37.30% | 100.00% | |
June | 868,846 | 59,963 | 37,763 | 13,175 | 68,119 | 65,765 | 1,115 | 10,282 | 41,607 | 697,202 | 1,863,837 |
46.60% | 3.20% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 3.70% | 3.50% | 0.10% | 0.60% | 2.20% | 37.40% | 100.00% | |
July | 873,013 | 71,437 | 38,848 | 14,084 | 71,905 | 74,907 | 1,361 | 10,899 | 43,127 | 724,780 | 1,924,361 |
45.40% | 3.70% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 3.70% | 3.90% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 2.20% | 37.80% | 100.00% | |
Aug | 817,140 | 71,253 | 36,232 | 13,451 | 66,793 | 72,785 | 1,263 | 10,663 | 41,220 | 685,182 | 1,815,982 |
45.00% | 3.90% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 3.70% | 4.00% | 0.10% | 0.60% | 2.30% | 37.70% | 100.00% | |
Sept | 860,661 | 77,402 | 38,126 | 13,271 | 69,337 | 79,819 | 1,354 | 11,218 | 43,351 | 718,213 | 1,912,752 |
45.00% | 4.00% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 3.60% | 4.20% | 0.10% | 0.60% | 2.30% | 37.50% | 100.00% | |
Oct | 938,718 | 89,533 | 38,062 | 14,406 | 75,441 | 93,757 | 1,574 | 2,211 | 50,451 | 789,494 | 2,093,647 |
44.80% | 4.30% | 1.80% | 0.70% | 3.60% | 4.50% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 2.40% | 37.71% | 100.00% | |
April-Oct | 6,204,441 | 496,487 | 272,239 | 95,568 | 496,024 | 520,561 | 9,245 | 66,864 | 306,559 | 5,087,784 | 13,555,772 |
45.77% | 3.66% | 2.01% | 0.70% | 3.66% | 3.84% | 0.07% | 0.49% | 2.26% | 37.53% | 100.00% |
Japan maintains a feed price stabilization program, whereby the combination of a subsidy by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) and an industry fund helps absorb sudden surges in compound feed prices. The feed price stabilization program was revised in April 2014, allowing for the activation of supplemental compensation during times of rising prices. Reflecting the rise in freight costs and the depreciation of the yen, imported feed grain prices rose in the 1st and 2nd quarters of JFY2014, but compensation has not been activated since the 4th quarter of JFY2013 (January-March 2014). The compensation was not activated for the 1st quarter of JFY2014 (April-June), as the imported feed grain price (32,571 yen/MT) was below the standard import price (34,747 yen/MT, the average price of the previous12 months (April 2013-March 2014)). For the 2nd quarter of JFY2014 (July-September), the average import price of 33,968 yen/MT was higher by 180 yen/MT than the standard import price of 33,788 yen/MT, but the compensation was not activated because the difference was below the minimum compensation price of 250 yen/MT.
Corn Price, Yen/USD and Freight Costs
April 2014 | September 2014 | September/ April | November 2014 | November/ September | |
Corn price (CBOT) | 502.20 cents/bushel | 335.39 cents/bushel | -33.2% | 373.17 cents/bushel | 11.3% |
Yen/USD | 102.56 | 107.09 | 4.4% | 116.22 | 8.5% |
Freight costs Gulf - Japan | 43.7 USD/MT | 46.5 USD/MT | 6.4% | 44.1 USD/MT | -5.2% |
The following tables show monthly imports of corn in the most recent six months for which data is available. The United States has recovered the import market share lost after the 2012 drought, maintaining over 90 percent of the share since May 2014 for feed corn and since March 2014 for food corn. In the winter months, Japan typically diversifies supply sources as the new U.S. crop becomes available and Southern Hemisphere corn shipments are strong; thus in November, the U.S. share of Japanese feed corn imports dropped to 80.7 percent, while Brazil and South Africa increased to 11.7 percent and 6.5 percent respectively. The U.S. share is expected to recover in the spring. Post has updated the PS&D based on final import data for MY2013/14 and MY2014/15 pace-to-date.
Japan's Monthly Imports of Corn
Japan Import Statistics | |||||||
Commodity: Grain: Corn for Feed | |||||||
Monthly Series: 06/2014 - 11/2014 | |||||||
Partner Country | Unit | Quantity | |||||
06/2014 | 07/2014 | 08/2014 | 09/2914 | 10/2014 | 11/2014 | ||
World | MT | 840,038 | 732,452 | 706,605 | 735,044 | 807,133 | 731,662 |
United States | MT | 838,866 | 712,653 | 685,505 | 718,994 | 750,571 | 590,191 |
Brazil | MT | 999 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39,317 | 85,773 |
South Africa | MT | 0 | 0 | 21,100 | 16,050 | 12,927 | 47,434 |
Romania | MT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,038 |
Argentina | MT | 0 | 19,799 | 0 | 0 | 4,318 | 3,226 |
India | MT | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ukraine | MT | 110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
U.S. share | % | 99.9 | 97.3 | 97.0 | 97.8 | 93.0 | 80.7 |
Brazil's share | % | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 11.7 |
South Africa's share | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 6.5 |
Japan Import Statistics | |||||||
Commodity: Grain: Corn for Food | |||||||
Monthly Series: 06/2014 - 11/2014 | |||||||
Partner Country | Unit | Quantity | |||||
06/2014 | 07/2014 | 08/2014 | 09/2914 | 10/2014 | 11/2014 | ||
World | MT | 420,363 | 458,790 | 494,022 | 460,198 | 416,547 | 484,884 |
United States | MT | 419,704 | 453,631 | 483,958 | 452,980 | 372,785 | 463,851 |
South Africa | MT | 0 | 4,514 | 9,521 | 5,000 | 16,171 | 12,354 |
Argentina | MT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7,000 | 7,953 |
Indonesia | MT | 233 | 213 | 297 | 513 | 213 | 340 |
Peru | MT | 0 | 1 | 73 | 269 | 4 | 201 |
India | MT | 394 | 422 | 131 | 506 | 336 | 154 |
Brazil | MT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20,003 | 0 |
Other | MT | 32 | 9 | 41 | 930 | 35 | 31 |
U.S. share | % | 99.8 | 98.9 | 98.0 | 98.4 | 89.5 | 95.7 |
Brazil's share | % | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 |
South Africa's share | % | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 |
Japan Import Statistics | |||||||
Commodity: Grain: Corn Total | |||||||
Monthly Series: 06/2014 - 11/2014 | |||||||
Partner Country | Unit | Quantity | |||||
06/2014 | 07/2014 | 08/2014 | 09/2014 | 10/2014 | 11/2014 | ||
World | MT | 1,260,401 | 1,191,242 | 1,200,627 | 119,5242 | 1,223,680 | 1,216,546 |
United States | MT | 1,258,570 | 1,166,284 | 1,169,463 | 117,1974 | 1,123,356 | 1,054,042 |
Brazil | MT | 999 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 59,320 | 85,773 |
South Africa | MT | 0 | 4514 | 30,621 | 21,050 | 29,098 | 59,788 |
Argentina | MT | 0 | 19,799 | 0 | 0 | 11,318 | 11,179 |
Romania | MT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5038 |
Indonesia | MT | 233 | 213 | 297 | 513 | 213 | 340 |
Peru | MT | 0 | 1 | 73 | 269 | 4 | 201 |
India | MT | 457 | 422 | 131 | 506 | 336 | 154 |
Australia | MT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 869 | 0 | 0 |
Other | MT | 142 | 9 | 41 | 61 | 35 | 31 |
U.S. share | % | 99.9 | 97.9 | 97.4 | 98.1 | 91.8 | 86.6 |
Brazil's share | % | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 7.1 |
South Africa's share | % | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 4.9 |
PS&D
Corn | 2012/2013 | 2013/2014 | 2014/2015 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2012 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2014 | |||
Japan | USDA Official | New post | USDA Official | New post | USDA Official | New post |
Area Harvested | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Beginning Stocks | 610 | 610 | 523 | 521 | 545 | 540 |
Production | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
MY Imports | 14,412 | 14,410 | 15,121 | 15,118 | 15,400 | 15,500 |
TY Imports | 14,412 | 14,410 | 15,121 | 15,118 | 15,400 | 15,500 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 6,511 | 6,932 | 12,337 | 11,016 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 15,023 | 15,021 | 15,645 | 15,640 | 15,946 | 16,041 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed and Residual | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,600 | 10,600 | 10,900 | 11,000 |
FSI Consumption | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 |
Total Consumption | 14,500 | 14,500 | 15,100 | 15,100 | 15,400 | 15,500 |
Ending Stocks | 523 | 521 | 545 | 540 | 546 | 541 |
Total Distribution | 15,023 | 15,021 | 15,645 | 15,640 | 15,946 | 16,041 |
1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA | ||||||
