Recovering from the decline in Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY; April-March) 2012 and JFY2013, corn utilization in compound feed gradually increased in the first half of JFY2014 (April-September), reaching the JFY 2011 level of just over 45 percent, and displacing the use of sorghum and wheat. The United States has recovered the import market share lost after the 2012 drought, maintaining over 90 percent of the share since May 2014 for feed corn and since March 2014 for food corn. PS&Ds for corn, rice wheat and barley have been revised to reflect final 2014 production data and MY2013/14 import statistics.

Overall Market Situation

Updated feed production statistics and a detailed breakdown of feed ingredient utilization ratios follow. Recovering from a decline in Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY; April-March) 2012 and JFY2013, corn utilization gradually increased in the first half of JFY2014 (April-September), reaching the JFY 2011 level of just over 45 percent, and displacing the use of sorghum and wheat. Rice utilization gradually increased to 3.84 percent in the first half of JFY2014, higher than barley for the first time in at least 10 years.

Feed Utilization by Ingredients

Japan Fiscal Year

Corn

Sorghum

Wheat

Wheat Flour

Barley

Rice

Rye

Other Grains

DDGS

Non-grain Ingredients

TOTAL

49.50%

5.80%

0.40%

0.50%

3.20%

1.20%

1.10%

0.50%

37.80%

100.00%

2005

11,894,303

1,335,574

101,539

122,738

792,159

325,605

233,518

119,150

NA

9,228,722

24,153,308

49.20%

5.50%

0.40%

0.50%

3.30%

1.30%

1.00%

0.50%

38.20%

100.00%

2006

12,017,330

1,280,438

103,640

129,212

826,682

425,942

219,254

126,810

NA

9,291,274

24,420,582

49.20%

5.20%

0.40%

0.50%

3.40%

1.70%

0.90%

0.50%

38.00%

100.00%

2007

12,005,863

1,137,809

95,075

131,695

859,952

557,571

152,506

143,979

NA

9,434,064

24,518,514

49.00%

4.60%

0.40%

0.50%

3.50%

2.30%

0.60%

0.60%

38.50%

100.00%

2008

12,059,732

1,240,344

111,597

145,387

859,024

468,000

60,739

153,138

NA

9,449,421

24,547,382

49.10%

5.10%

0.50%

0.60%

3.50%

1.90%

0.20%

0.60%

38.50%

100.00%

2009

11,908,859

1,722,923

164,014

136,567

911,019

256,020

53,924

145,614

NA

9,554,496

24,853,436

47.90%

6.90%

0.70%

0.50%

3.70%

1.00%

0.20%

0.60%

38.40%

100.00%

2010

11,614,834

1,464,181

223,429

135,379

901,680

401,463

103,389

152,545

219,189

9,321,592

24,537,681

47.30%

6.00%

0.90%

0.60%

3.70%

1.60%

0.40%

0.60%

0.90%

38.00%

100.00%

2011

10,935,808

1,413,787

402,609

151,537

878,047

652,573

74,028

149,393

362,970

9,218,996

24,239,748

45.10%

5.80%

1.70%

0.60%

3.60%

2.70%

0.30%

0.60%

1.50%

38.00%

100.00%

2012

10,317,271

1,653,366

965,993

159,886

900,739

472,131

16,739

150,236

426,965

9,053,078

24,116,404

42.80%

6.90%

4.00%

0.70%

3.70%

2.00%

0.10%

0.60%

1.80%

37.50%

100.00%

2013

10,445,875

1,511,073

853,214

158,600

896,174

512,132

16,870

146,597

472,613

8,925,813

23,938,963

43.64%

6.31%

3.56%

0.66%

3.74%

2.14%

0.07%

0.61%

1.97%

37.30%

100.00%

2014/April

917,235

62,998

42,945

13,596

72,117

65,161

1,378

10,734

42,831

732,800

1,961,795

46.80%

3.20%

2.20%

0.70%

3.70%

3.30%

0.10%

0.50%

2.20%

37.40%

100.00%

May

928,828

63,901

40,263

13,585

72,312

68,367

1,200

10,857

43,972

740,113

1,983,398

46.80%

3.20%

2.00%

0.70%

3.60%

3.40%

0.10%

0.50%

2.20%

37.30%

100.00%

June

868,846

59,963

37,763

13,175

68,119

65,765

1,115

10,282

41,607

697,202

1,863,837

46.60%

3.20%

2.00%

0.70%

3.70%

3.50%

0.10%

0.60%

2.20%

37.40%

100.00%

July

873,013

71,437

38,848

14,084

71,905

74,907

1,361

10,899

43,127

724,780

1,924,361

45.40%

3.70%

2.00%

0.70%

3.70%

3.90%

0.10%

0.50%

2.20%

37.80%

100.00%

Aug

817,140

71,253

36,232

13,451

66,793

72,785

1,263

10,663

41,220

685,182

1,815,982

45.00%

3.90%

2.00%

0.70%

3.70%

4.00%

0.10%

0.60%

2.30%

37.70%

100.00%

Sept

860,661

77,402

38,126

13,271

69,337

79,819

1,354

11,218

43,351

718,213

1,912,752

45.00%

4.00%

2.00%

0.70%

3.60%

4.20%

0.10%

0.60%

2.30%

37.50%

100.00%

Oct

938,718

89,533

38,062

14,406

75,441

93,757

1,574

2,211

50,451

789,494

2,093,647

44.80%

4.30%

1.80%

0.70%

3.60%

4.50%

0.10%

0.11%

2.40%

37.71%

100.00%

April-Oct

6,204,441

496,487

272,239

95,568

496,024

520,561

9,245

66,864

306,559

5,087,784

13,555,772

45.77%

3.66%

2.01%

0.70%

3.66%

3.84%

0.07%

0.49%

2.26%

37.53%

100.00%

Japan maintains a feed price stabilization program, whereby the combination of a subsidy by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) and an industry fund helps absorb sudden surges in compound feed prices. The feed price stabilization program was revised in April 2014, allowing for the activation of supplemental compensation during times of rising prices. Reflecting the rise in freight costs and the depreciation of the yen, imported feed grain prices rose in the 1st and 2nd quarters of JFY2014, but compensation has not been activated since the 4th quarter of JFY2013 (January-March 2014). The compensation was not activated for the 1st quarter of JFY2014 (April-June), as the imported feed grain price (32,571 yen/MT) was below the standard import price (34,747 yen/MT, the average price of the previous12 months (April 2013-March 2014)). For the 2nd quarter of JFY2014 (July-September), the average import price of 33,968 yen/MT was higher by 180 yen/MT than the standard import price of 33,788 yen/MT, but the compensation was not activated because the difference was below the minimum compensation price of 250 yen/MT.

Corn Price, Yen/USD and Freight Costs

April 2014

September 2014

September/

April

November 2014

November/

September

Corn price

(CBOT)

502.20 cents/bushel

335.39

cents/bushel

-33.2%

373.17 cents/bushel

11.3%

Yen/USD

102.56

107.09

4.4%

116.22

8.5%

Freight costs Gulf - Japan

43.7 USD/MT

46.5

USD/MT

6.4%

44.1 USD/MT

-5.2%

The following tables show monthly imports of corn in the most recent six months for which data is available. The United States has recovered the import market share lost after the 2012 drought, maintaining over 90 percent of the share since May 2014 for feed corn and since March 2014 for food corn. In the winter months, Japan typically diversifies supply sources as the new U.S. crop becomes available and Southern Hemisphere corn shipments are strong; thus in November, the U.S. share of Japanese feed corn imports dropped to 80.7 percent, while Brazil and South Africa increased to 11.7 percent and 6.5 percent respectively. The U.S. share is expected to recover in the spring. Post has updated the PS&D based on final import data for MY2013/14 and MY2014/15 pace-to-date.

Japan's Monthly Imports of Corn

Japan Import Statistics

Commodity: Grain: Corn for Feed

Monthly Series: 06/2014 - 11/2014

Partner Country

Unit

Quantity

06/2014

07/2014

08/2014

09/2914

10/2014

11/2014

World

MT

840,038

732,452

706,605

735,044

807,133

731,662

United States

MT

838,866

712,653

685,505

718,994

750,571

590,191

Brazil

MT

999

0

0

0

39,317

85,773

South Africa

MT

0

0

21,100

16,050

12,927

47,434

Romania

MT

0

0

0

0

0

5,038

Argentina

MT

0

19,799

0

0

4,318

3,226

India

MT

63

0

0

0

0

0

Ukraine

MT

110

0

0

0

0

0

U.S. share

%

99.9

97.3

97.0

97.8

93.0

80.7

Brazil's share

%

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.9

11.7

South Africa's share

%

0.0

0.0

3.0

2.2

1.6

6.5

Japan Import Statistics

Commodity: Grain: Corn for Food

Monthly Series: 06/2014 - 11/2014

Partner Country

Unit

Quantity

06/2014

07/2014

08/2014

09/2914

10/2014

11/2014

World

MT

420,363

458,790

494,022

460,198

416,547

484,884

United States

MT

419,704

453,631

483,958

452,980

372,785

463,851

South Africa

MT

0

4,514

9,521

5,000

16,171

12,354

Argentina

MT

0

0

0

0

7,000

7,953

Indonesia

MT

233

213

297

513

213

340

Peru

MT

0

1

73

269

4

201

India

MT

394

422

131

506

336

154

Brazil

MT

0

0

1

0

20,003

0

Other

MT

32

9

41

930

35

31

U.S. share

%

99.8

98.9

98.0

98.4

89.5

95.7

Brazil's share

%

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.8

0.0

South Africa's share

%

0.0

1.0

1.9

1.1

3.9

2.5

Japan Import Statistics

Commodity: Grain: Corn Total

Monthly Series: 06/2014 - 11/2014

Partner Country

Unit

Quantity

06/2014

07/2014

08/2014

09/2014

10/2014

11/2014

World

MT

1,260,401

1,191,242

1,200,627

119,5242

1,223,680

1,216,546

United States

MT

1,258,570

1,166,284

1,169,463

117,1974

1,123,356

1,054,042

Brazil

MT

999

0

1

0

59,320

85,773

South Africa

MT

0

4514

30,621

21,050

29,098

59,788

Argentina

MT

0

19,799

0

0

11,318

11,179

Romania

MT

0

0

0

0

0

5038

Indonesia

MT

233

213

297

513

213

340

Peru

MT

0

1

73

269

4

201

India

MT

457

422

131

506

336

154

Australia

MT

0

0

0

869

0

0

Other

MT

142

9

41

61

35

31

U.S. share

%

99.9

97.9

97.4

98.1

91.8

86.6

Brazil's share

%

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.8

7.1

South Africa's share

%

0.0

0.4

2.6

1.8

2.4

4.9

PS&D

Corn

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Oct 2012

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Japan

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

1

1

1

1

1

1

Beginning Stocks

610

610

523

521

545

540

Production

1

1

1

1

1

1

MY Imports

14,412

14,410

15,121

15,118

15,400

15,500

TY Imports

14,412

14,410

15,121

15,118

15,400

15,500

TY Imp. from U.S.

6,511

6,932

12,337

11,016

0

0

Total Supply

15,023

15,021

15,645

15,640

15,946

16,041

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

10,000

10,000

10,600

10,600

10,900

11,000

FSI Consumption

4,500

4,500

4,500

4,500

4,500

4,500

Total Consumption

14,500

14,500

15,100

15,100

15,400

15,500

Ending Stocks

523

521

545

540

546

541

Total Distribution

15,023

15,021

15,645

15,640

15,946

16,041

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA