​Canada. Wheat Update. Feb 2015 March 10, 2015

2015/2016

Early estimates are for area seeded to spring wheat to increase between two and five percent, while area seeded to durum is expected to increase to between 12 percent and 15 percent. There are concerns on the availability and cost of durum seed which may be a limiting factor.

2014/2015

Year to date data has wheat exports well above average (Aug – Nov), however there has been a slow down since Christmas. While quality issues have overshadowed total supplies, quality issues have been a factor for world supplies. Many of the factors that are causing Canadian wheat to be graded lower are not factors that affect the functionality of the wheat for the end user. For example, wheat is being downgraded for mildew but the mildew does not go deep enough to affect the color when milled. Other quality issues are able to be addressed through blending. This fact, combined with a weaker Canadian dollar and high supplies, will keep exports strong through 2014/2015. Stocks will be drawn down to more manageable levels. Durum supplies for quality and quantity will be tight after a disastrous year. Wheat into feed is higher than average due to low barley supplies and the availability of abundant supplies of feed wheat.

Policy:

Bills Moving Through Parliament

There are a number of grains-related bills moving through Parliament at this time. Bill C-18, the Agricultural Growth Act is a bill designed to amend certain Acts relating to agriculture and agri-food, including the Plant Breeder's Rights Act, the Feeds Act, the Fertilizer Act, the Seed Act, the Health of Animals Act and the Plant Protection Act. Perhaps one of the most controversial elements of Bill C-18 is the amendments to the Seed Act and the Plant Breeder's Rights Act which will bring Canada into compliance with the UPOV 91 convention which offers more protection for plant breeders' intellectual property. Canadian government officials are confident that this will stimulate more research, more investment in Canada and increased access to foreign plant varieties. The timeline for this legislation is that it will reach final assent in March 2015 and come into force one month later.

Bill C-48 is designed to modernize the Canada Grain Commission and proposes some changes to the Canada Grain Act that will help level the playing field for U.S. farmers delivering to Canadian grain elevators. Proposed changes to the Canada Grain Act will make it possible for U.S. farmers to receive a Canadian statutory grade if the variety being delivered is of a variety that is registered for use in Canada.

Transportation

While the rail situation has vastly improved over the previous year, tensions remain high between the railroads and the shippers. There is a great deal of variability on timing (when the trains are supposed to arrive and when they actually arrive) and a continued need for greater capacity. The AgCoalition/QCI released information publically on rail car demand, supply, timeliness, corridor performance, railway dwell times at origin and railway dwell times at destination. The data presented demonstrates the shortfall in meeting orders (demand). The performance measurement initiative is part of a five-year transportation strategy and action plan made possible by matching investments from the ag industry and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) through Growing Forward 2 programming