Even several months after the MY 2013/2014 corn harvest, there remains disparity on its size among the different government, food and feed producers, and farmers. The government continues to hold and control the flow of information in light of growing food shortages and mismanaged distribution procedures. After discussions with various poultry producers, feed millers and farmer groups, Post estimates MY 2013/14 corn production slightly higher than the previous estimate as the result of a rise in yields due to favorable weather late in the growing season. The harvest was divided virtually in half; 50 percent yellow corn and 50 percent white corn. Post forecasts the MY 2014/15 corn production will fall around 7 percent to 1.3 million tons as the government is expected to fall short on its promise to provide the necessary inputs in time for the April-May planting season. Producers and the government would normally have agreed on the volume of seeds needed and made arrangements to import them before the end of the year. According to farmer and poultry producer groups, however, that did not happen. The lack of viable corn seed is the most critical variable at this time impacting farmer planting intentions. If the government could find the necessary foreign exchange, there may still be time to salvage the planting season. The continued lack of fertilizer, agrochemicals and spare parts for machinery will certainly impact yields.

Overall yellow corn consumption is expected to decline in MY 2014/15 as the poultry sector contracts, according to the Federation of Poultry Producers (FENAVI). FENAVI and other poultry producer groups estimate the balance feed sector will need approximately $3.2 billion to maintain current levels of production, while the poultry industry will need another $500 million to import other needed imports like micro nutrients; vaccines; machinery and equipment; and other inputs. This means that the government will have to dedicate around $3.7 billion to the feed and poultry industries, which is nearly half the $8 billion the government promised in 2015 for the entire agriculture and livestock sector. Yellow corn imports are expected to fall between 3 and 7 percent due to the reduced demand for feed. Post forecasts MY 2014/2015 corn imports at 2.3 million tons. Priority will be given to white corn, which should reach approximately 500,000 tons. The United States will remain the primary supplier due to lower prices, greater availability and timing of transportation.

Corn Venezuela

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Year Begin: Oct 2012

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

417

417

443

443

420

440

Beginning Stocks

360

360

156

106

342

166

Production

1,300

1,300

1,360

1,360

1,300

1,300

MY Imports

2,146

2,146

2,626

2,400

2,600

2,500

TY Imports

2,146

2,146

2,626

2,400

2,600

2,500

TY Imp. from U.S.

1,080

1,092

1,061

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,806

3,806

4,142

3,866

4,242

3,966

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

2,100

2,150

2,200

2,150

2,300

2,200

FSI Consumption

1,550

1,550

1,600

1,550

1,650

1,600

Total Consumption

3,650

3,700

3,800

3,700

3,950

3,800

Ending Stocks

156

106

342

166

292

166

Total Distribution

3,806

3,806

4,142

3,866

4,242

3,966

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA