Post revises its soybean production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2013/14 (October-September) to 9.5 MMT, a decrease of 1.0 million metric tons (MMT). Consequently, ending stocks are also revised lower to 1.0 MMT, the lowest in the last decade. Oil meal exports in MY 2014/15 are revised down from 4.8 MMT to 4.1 MMT to reflect lower than anticipated soybean meal exports

Soybean Production in MY 2013/14 Revised Down to 9.5 MMT

Post revises down soybean production for the previous marketing year (MY 2013/14) from 10.5 MMT to 9.5 MMT. This revision results from a lower than anticipated drop in yields, which has also lowered soybean stocks and market arrivals. This estimate remains consistent with production figures adopted by Soybean Processors' Association of India. Soybean production in the current marketing year (MY 2014/15) remains unchanged at 10.6 MMT.

Oilseed End Stocks in MY 2013/14 Revised Lower to 1 MMT, Lowest in Last Decade

Post further reduces the MY 2013/14 total oilseed crush from 29.1 MMT to 28.9 MMT due to the lower than anticipated oilseeds stocks (particularly soybean) for crush-to-meal. Ending stocks in MY 2013/14 are lowered from 1.7 MMT to 1.0 MMT, a 35-percent reduction from the previous estimate, and the lowest in the last decade. Stocks are reduced due to lower than anticipated oilseed production and lower domestic consumption of oilseed feed waste. Moreover, Indian millers are discouraged by a glut of low-cost vegetable oil imports (mostly palm) and low international demand for Indian soybean meal.

Oil Meal Exports Forecast in MY 2014/15 Revised Down from 4.8 MMT to 4.1 MMT

The total oil meal export forecast (which excludes rice bran and castor meal) for MY 2014/15 is revised down from 4.8 MMT to 4.1 MMT. The lower than anticipated soybean crush, coupled with a sluggish exports will bring down total soybean meal sales to 2.9 MMT, 24 percent lower than previously estimated. Likewise, domestic soybean meal for feed use is moderated to reflect current industry estimates, although the poultry sector continues to grow modestly year-on-year. Stable feed prices should support demand expansion for poultry products. Throughout the past two years, India's poultry sector has struggled with high production costs and slim profit margins.

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Soybean, PSD (Area in 1000 hectares and production in 1000 metric tons)

Oilseed, Soybean

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Oct 2012

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

10,700

10,700

12,200

12,200

11,000

10,908

Area Harvested

10,700

10,700

12,200

12,000

11,000

10,908

Beginning Stocks

800

535

1,135

515

606

245

Production

12,200

11,200

9,500

9,500

10,500

10,600

MY Imports

0

0

4

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

13,000

11,735

10,639

10,015

11,106

10,845

MY Exports

115

20

183

20

150

20

MY Exp. to EU

38

0

50

0

60

0

Crush

9,900

9,600

8,300

7,800

8,500

8,300

Food Use Dom. Cons.

650

600

550

650

650

700

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,200

1,000

1,000

1,300

1,150

1,500

Total Dom. Cons.

11,750

11,200

9,850

9,750

10,300

10,500

Ending Stocks

1,135

515

606

245

656

325

Total Distribution

13,000

11,735

10,639

10,015

11,106

10,845

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

100

10

150

10

175

10

CY Exp. to U.S.

43

0

50

0

50

0

India: Commodity, Meal, Soybean, PSD (Units in 1000 metric tons, Extraction rate in Percent)

Meal, Soybean

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Oct 2012

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

9,900

9,600

8,300

7,800

8,500

8,300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.8000

0.8000

0.8000

0.8000

0.8000

0.8000

Beginning Stocks

264

230

347

160

202

125

Production

7,920

7,680

6,640

6,240

6,800

6,640

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8,191

7,910

6,994

6,400

7,009

6,765

MY Exports

4,354

4,500

2,742

2,825

2,550

2,900

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

190

250

200

250

215

300

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

3,300

3,000

3,850

3,200

4,000

3,300

Total Dom. Cons.

3,490

3,250

4,050

3,450

4,215

3,600

Ending Stocks

347

160

202

125

244

265

Total Distribution

8,191

7,910

6,994

6,400

7,009

6,765

CY Imports

7

0

7

0

7

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

4,435

3,800

2,950

3,800

3,000

3,800

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

3,490

3,250

4,050

3,450

4,215

3,600

India: Commodity, Oil, Soybean, PSD (Unit in 1000 metric tons and Extraction rate in Percent)

Oil, Soybean

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Oct 2012

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

9,900

9,600

8,300

7,800

8,500

8,300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.1770

0.1760

0.1781

0.1799

0.1760

0.1798

Beginning Stocks

360

479

248

364

255

387

Production

1,752

1,690

1,478

1,403

1,496

1,492

MY Imports

1,086

1,200

1,830

1,830

1,925

1,900

MY Imp. from U.S.

10

0

2

20

2

20

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,198

3,369

3,556

3,597

3,676

3,779

MY Exports

0

5

1

10

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,950

3,000

3,300

3,200

3,450

3,400

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,950

3,000

3,300

3,200

3,450

3,400

Ending Stocks

248

364

255

387

226

379

Total Distribution

3,198

3,369

3,556

3,597

3,676

3,779

CY Imports

1,120

958

1,600

1,000

1,700

1,100

CY Imp. from U.S.

10

113

2

15

2

15

CY Exports

0

0

1

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0