Production

MY 2014/15 (May-April) and MY 2013/14 rice production estimates are unchanged. Due to the current strikes (hartals), media sources have opined that fertilizer, fuel, and other input costs have increased due to disrupted supply chains. At this time, it is unclear if the hartals will affect Boro rice production, although sufficient water will need to be available since the crop is mostly irrigated.

Trade

The MY 2014/15 import forecast is raised to 700,000 MT based on strong import pace. MY 2013/14 rice imports are unchanged at 751,000 MT. Although media articles noted that a Bangladeshi rice shipment has been exported to Sri Lanka, it is unclear if an agreement to export rice has been finalized. According to Sri Lankan customs data, to date no imports have arrived at port.

Stocks

According to the Ministry of Food (MOF), in January 2015 public stocks are 1.17 MMT, approximately 460,000 MT more than what was available in January 2014.

Prices

According to the media, the GOB will procure Aman rice from November 15, 2014 to February 28, 2015, and is expected to purchase approximately 300,000 MT of rice. Prices appear to have eased through January, but it is unclear if the hartals will affect future prices.

Bangladesh: Rice, Milled, PSD(Area in Thousand Hectares and Quantity in Thousand Metric Tons)

Rice, Milled

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

May 2012

May 2013

May 2014

Bangladesh

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

11,650

11,650

11,770

11,770

11,800

11,800

Beginning Stocks

1,341

1,341

696

696

937

937

Milled Production

33,820

33,820

34,390

34,390

34,600

34,500

Rough Production

50,735

50,735

51,590

51,590

51,905

51,755

Milling Rate (.9999)

6,666

6,666

6,666

6,666

6,666

6,666

MY Imports

35

35

751

751

500

700

TY Imports

114

300

850

850

500

700

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

35,196

35,196

35,837

35,837

36,037

36,137

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

34,500

34,500

34,900

34,900

35,200

35,300

Ending Stocks

696

696

937

937

837

837

Total Distribution

35,196

35,196

35,837

35,837

36,037

36,137

Yield (Rough)

4.3549

4.3549

4.3832

4.3832

4.3987

4.3860