Production

The MY 2013/14 and 2014/15 production estimates are unchanged at 1.28 and 1.3 MMT. At this time, it is unclear if the hartals (see Rice report) will affect the availability of inputs needed for the current crop, which is typically planted November/December and harvested in March/April.

Imports

For MY 2014/15, Post's import estimate is unchanged at 3.3 MMT. Although some media reports have noted that the GOB may also explore importing more wheat from Russia, only approximately 195,000 MT have been imported from July to September 2014. Because the Russian government announced it will be instituting export duties on wheat after February 1, 2015, it is unlikely that Bangladesh will find additional imports from the Russian market in the near term. According to media reports, the GOB plans to import 250,000 MT of wheat from Ukraine through a government-to-government contract, although details on whether the agreement has been finalized are still unclear. Ukrainian customs data shows that since September 2014, Ukrainian exports to Bangladesh have totaled approximately 319,000 MT.

Stocks

According to the MOF, as of the last week of January 2015, public stocks are estimated at 91,000 MT, 59 percent less than last year.

Prices

Average January 2015 wholesale and retail prices of coarse wheat flour in Dhaka were BDT 26 ($0.35) and BDT 33 ($0.44) per kilogram. The January 2015 retail price spike may be indicating internal distributional/transportation constraints due to the recent hartals. Otherwise, for MY 2014/15, strong global production and high global exportable supplies have kept international prices low, which should help mitigate Bangladeshi wholesale prices.

Bangladesh: Wheat, PSD (Area in Thousand Hectares and Quantity in Thousand Metric Tons)

Wheat

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Jul 2012

May 2013

May 2014

Bangladesh

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

410

410

410

410

415

415

Beginning Stocks

1,096

1,096

1,075

1,075

1,253

1,384

Production

1,260

1,260

1,260

1,280

1,300

1,300

MY Imports

2,719

2,719

3,318

3,329

3,600

3,300

TY Imports

2,719

2,719

3,318

3,329

3,600

3,300

TY Imp. from U.S.

52

52

86

0

0

0

Total Supply

5,075

5,075

5,653

5,684

6,153

5,984

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

0

0

0

0

0

0

FSI Consumption

4,000

4,000

4,400

4,300

4,900

4,700

Total Consumption

4,000

4,000

4,400

4,300

4,900

4,700

Ending Stocks

1,075

1,075

1,253

1,384

1,253

1,284

Total Distribution

5,075

5,075

5,653

5,684

6,153

5,984

Yield

3.0732

3.0732

3.0732

3.1220

3.1325

3.1325