Production

The second crop corn harvest is almost completed in Turkey. Only small areas in the GAP region continue to harvest. Due to unexpected increase in second crop yields in the GAP region, Post revised the corn production forecast to 4.8 MMT, an increase of 200,000 MT. In some regions the yield reached 8-8.5 MT/hectare (MT/ha). Production quality in the region between Mardin, Batman and Bismil was very poor. One reason for poor production was that some products had to wait in field due to transportation problems.

Second crop began October 15, 2014, in the Çukurova region. Yields are 6-6.5 MT/ha, compared to 7-8.5 MT/ha in a normal season. Especially in Adana, farmers preferred soy to corn for second crop due to higher yields.

Corn area is continuing to increase throughout Turkey in MY 2015/2016, especially in the southeastern GAP region, in Çukurova, and around Konya. Low cotton prices in 2014 may encourage many farmers to plant corn instead in the Çukurova region. Corn area is increasing in Central Anatolia due to an increase in the availability of irrigation. In the Aegean region, there will be some shifts from cotton to corn.

In addition to agricultural supports, farmers know that the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) will intervene in case of any unexpected price reduction.

Silage corn production is also increased over last year. The GOT increased silage corn support from 70 Turkish Lira (TL)/hectare ($54/hectare) in 2005 to 750 TL/hectare ($315/hectare) in 2014. (The exchange rate at the beginning of February 2015 was 2.4 TL to $1.)

TMO announced the corn domestic procurement price at 680 TL/MT ($315/MT) on August 15, 2014. The Dollar was 2.16 Turkish Liras (TL) on August 15, 2014, which was 1.93 TL on the same day in 2013. Last year, the procurement price was 640 TL/MT ($331/MT).

TMO procured 1,373,444 MT of corn in MY2013. However, TMO has only procured 175,000 MT of corn in MY2014 because most farmers preferred to sell to the private sector. Also, as in last year, farmers are required to take an appointment date through a web-based system to sell their crop to TMO.

The corn market price at the Adana Commodity Exchange was about 691 TL/MT ($288/MT) at the end of January 2015. It was 635 TL/MT ($288/MT) in January 2014.

Turkish corn production is insufficient to meet domestic consumption requirements. Post forecasts Turkish corn imports at 1.5 MMT in MY 2014/2015. Consumption is fuelled by strong poultry and livestock production. Turkish broiler and layer production grew about 9 percent since 2013, which livestock production has increased 10 percent.

FEED SECTOR

The effect of decreased domestic poultry consumption on compound feed demand was compensated by increasing egg feed demand. The long term feed sector growth rate has been around 10 percent. Compound feed production was 16 MMT in 2013, and 2014 production is estimated at 17.5 MMT.

Distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS) were very popular in the Turkish feed industry in the past few years due to low prices, and high protein and oil contents. However, Turkey is effectively no longer accepting imports of U.S. corn co-products following the stepped-up enforcement of the Biosafety Law that restricts the import of GE corn varieties to a list of approved traits. Three shipments of U.S. DDGS were rejected in late 2014 following the detection of unapproved GE traits, and for the same reason at least one other vessel of U.S. DDGS was diverted from Turkey to another buyer. The change in testing procedures appears to be the result of pressure applied by domestic companies that contend with testing at import as well as testing conducted on final products sold in the market. The lack of DDGS imports will increase demand for other feed materials such sunflower meal, wheat bran, and canola meal in 2015

PSDCorn

2012/2013

2013/2014

2014/2015

Market Begin Year

Sep 2012

Sep 2013

Sep 2014

Turkey

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

525

525

580

580

550

550

Beginning Stocks

345

345

291

291

642

642

Production

4,400

4,400

5,100

5,100

4,600

4,800

MY Imports

1,662

1,662

1,304

1,304

1,500

1,500

TY Imports

1,656

1,656

1,381

1,381

1,500

1,500

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,407

6,407

6,695

6,695

6,742

6,942

MY Exports

16

16

253

253

50

50

TY Exports

17

17

252

252

50

50

Feed and Residual

5,150

5,150

4,800

4,800

5,350

5,350

FSI Consumption

950

950

1,000

1,000

1,050

1,050

Total Consumption

6,100

6,100

5,800

5,800

6,400

6,400

Ending Stocks

291

291

642

642

292

492

Total Distribution

6,407

6,407

6,695

6,695

6,742

6,942

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA