For CY 2014 and 2015, the total cattle population forecast levels are unchanged. CY 2014 and CY 2015 carabeef export estimates are unchanged, driven by rising export demand and price competitiveness in major markets.

Executive Summary:

For CY 2014 and 2015, the total cattle population forecast levels are unchanged. CY 2014 and CY 2015 carabeef export estimates are unchanged, driven by rising export demand and price competitiveness in major markets. According to Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance website, four meat processing plants in India have been approved to export carabeef to Russia.

Production:

For CY 2014 and 2015, the total cattle population forecast levels are unchanged. The CY 2014 and 2015 water buffalo (carabeef) production level estimates are also unchanged at 4.1 and 4.3 million metric tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE). The overall cattle population may continue to grow over the next five to 10 years on potential advances in the dairy sector; however, if not addressed, challenges such as a declining water table and limited feed supplies may eventually ease livestock numbers. The carabeef industry depends on unproductive water buffalo heifers and water buffalo bulls (from the dairy sector) as cow slaughter is banned in most Indian states due to religious sensitivities.

India's major carabeef producing states include Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Punjab. Uttar Pradesh, a major dairy producer, houses approximately half of all APEDA registered (for export) abattoirs. In recent years, carabeef prices likely have grown due to rising costs both in the dairy and carabeef sectors; from CY 2009 to CY 2014, the compound annual growth rate for carabeef prices was 11.62 percent. Reportedly, there was no major impact on carabeef production and exports due to the recent Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in 2014.

Consumption:

CY 2015 carabeef domestic consumption is unchanged on expectations of rising demand due to population growth.

Trade:

CY 2014 and CY 2015 carabeef export estimates are unchanged, driven by rising export demand and price competitiveness in major markets. Moreover, India may soon export carabeef to Russia. According to the Rosselkhoznadzor (Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance) website, four meat processing plants have been approved to export carabeef to Russia; however, to date, no information on these developments can be found on Government of India (GOI) websites. Vietnam is the largest export market for India followed by Malaysia, Egypt, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia.

Policy:

Carabeef Meat Production Programs and Policy

The Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying, and Fisheries (DADF) within the Ministry of Agriculture focuses on policies and programs to improve the productivity of the livestock sector. For example, the Rashtriya Gokul Mission program under the National Programme for Bovine Breeding and Dairy Development received $28.58 million to improve genetics for indigenous breeds. Under the Livestock Health and Disease Control scheme, the GOI supports national level programs for diseases such as FMD, peste des petits, and brucellosis. The National Livestock Mission primarily concentrates on poultry, pigs, and small ruminants, but also explores challenges in feed and fodder. The National Dairy Plan focuses on improving dairy production through various initiatives such as genetic enhancement and feed and fodder development. Other DADF programs plan to establish/modernize slaughter houses in rural areas.

The Ministry of Food Processing Industries has schemes specifically aimed at the carabeef sector. For example, there are programs for establishing, expanding, and modernizing carabeef meat processing infrastructure and cold chain operations, as well as a scheme on initiating a food surveillance system to monitor the quality and safety of food. The program Modernization of Existing Abattoirs/establishment of Modern Abattoirs promotes private capital to introduce modern technologies and create stronger backward and forward linkages. It provides a subsidy of 50 to 75 percent of the cost of the plant, machinery, technical civil work, and other eligible items (subject to a maximum of approximately $2.41 million); state governments through the National Mission on Food Processing currently implement this program.

Trade Policy

The DADF regulates imports of livestock and related products through the Livestock Importation Act, 1898 and its further amendments.

India: Commodity, Animal Numbers, Cattle, PSD

Animal Numbers, Cattle

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

299,606

299,606

300,600

300,600

301,100

301,100

Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks

118,598

118,598

123,000

123,000

125,000

125,000

Beef Cows Beg. Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production (Calf Crop)

65,000

65,000

66,000

66,000

66,750

67,000

Total Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

364,606

364,606

366,600

366,600

367,850

368,100

Total Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cow Slaughter

0

0

0

0

0

0

Calf Slaughter

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other Slaughter

34,500

34,500

37,000

37,000

38,250

39,500

Total Slaughter

34,500

34,500

37,000

37,000

38,250

39,500

Loss

29,506

29,506

28,500

28,500

28,000

27,000

Ending Inventories

300,600

300,600

301,100

301,100

301,600

301,600

Total Distribution

364,606

364,606

366,600

366,600

367,850

368,100

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY. Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Balance

0

0

0

0

0

0

Inventory Balance

994

994

500

500

500

500

Inventory Change

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cow Change

1

0

4

4

2

2

Production Change

2

2

2

2

1

2

Production to Cows

55

55

54

54

53

54

Slaughter to Inventory

12

12

12

12

13

13

Slaughter to Total Supply

9

9

10

10

10

11

India: Commodity, Meat, Beef and Veal, PSD

Meat, Beef and Veal

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jan 2013

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Slaughter (Reference)

34,500

34,500

37,000

37,000

38,250

39,500

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

3,800

3,800

4,100

4,100

4,250

4,375

Total Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,800

3,800

4,100

4,100

4,250

4,375

Total Exports

1,765

1,765

1,850

2,000

1,950

2,200

Human Dom. Consumption

2,035

2,035

2,250

2,100

2,300

2,175

Other Use, Losses

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Consumption

2,035

2,035

2,250

2,100

2,300

2,175

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

3,800

3,800

4,100

4,100

4,250

4,375

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY. Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Balance

0

0

0

0

0

0

Inventory Balance

0

0

0

0

0

0

Weights

110

110

111

111

111

111

Production Change

9

9

8

8

4

7

Import Change

0

0

0

0

0

0

Export Change

25

25

5

13

5

10

Consumption Change

-2

-2

11

3

2

4

Imports Percent Consumption

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exports Percent Production

46

46

45

49

46

50

Population

1,220,800,359

1,220,800,359

1,236,344,631

1,236,344,631

1,251,695,584

1,251,695,584

Per Capita Consumption

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.7