EU-28 broiler meat production forecasts for 2015 have been kept stable from previous estimates, but still higher than in 2014. Consumers switching from other meats to broiler meat (cheaper and more convenient) in a recession-stricken EU-28 region will increase the EU-28 domestic consumption of broiler meat in 2015. EU-28 broiler meat imports are still expected to grow marginally in 2015 with stagnant imports from both Brazil and Thailand. EU-28 broiler meat exports in 2015 are now expected to increase slightly despite lower exports of whole broilers (mostly from France) to Middle Eastern countries (mainly Saudi Arabia). The lack of exports to Russia, due to the Russian Embargo, was more than offset by higher exports to South Africa, Benin, Congo, Hong Kong and the Philippines.

Poultry, Meat, Broiler

Production:

EU-28 broiler meat production forecasts for 2015 have been kept stable from previous estimates as no significant hike in production is foreseen in the major producing countries. However, slightly lower exports are forecast for France, driven by declining exports of whole birds and the overall lack of competitiveness in the French poultry sector. Local outbreaks of Avian Influenza in several EU-28 member States are not expected to have any significant impact on production levels.

Consumption:

The EU-28 domestic consumption of broiler meat is still expected to increase slightly more than total population growth in 2015, indicating a small increase in per-capita consumption, due to the switch from other meats to lower-cost broiler meat in a recession-stricken EU-28 region.

Trade:

Broiler meat imports forecasts are now expected to remain flat in 2015. EU-28 imports of prepared, preserved and processed broiler parts (HS code 160232) are impacted by the economic downturn in the EU-28 region.

EU-28 broiler meat exports in 2015 are now expected to grow slightly. Increased exports to Africa (South Africa, Benin, The Congo), Hong Kong and the Philippines will more than offset lower exports of whole broilers (mainly from France) to Saudi Arabia, other Middle Eastern countries and Russia. Local outbreaks of Avian Influenza in several EU-28 member States are not expected to have any significant impact on EU broiler exports.

Policy: Russian extensive ban on agricultural and food products

On August 7, 2014, the Russian Government implemented sanctions on a wide range of agricultural and food products from the United States, the EU, Canada, Australia and Norway. Reportedly the ban will last for at least one year. The ban includes fresh beef (HS0201), frozen beef (HS0202), pork (HS0203), poultry meat (HS0207), prepared meat (HS0210) and sausages (HS160100). Below is a table with the trade volumes for beef, pork and poultry in 2013.

EU Exports to Russia (MT)

Share of

EU Exports

Share of Russian Imports

HS0201

13,729

17.8

34.1

HS0202

18,654

30.2

3.4

HS0203

369,916

23.0

60.9

HS0207

73,706

5.8

16.2

HS0210

3,747

9.3

97.2

HS160100

13,659

10.4

75.7

Total Beef (CW)

45,807

18.8

5.5

Total Pork (CW)

503,829

22.6

61.9

Total Poultry

70,856

5.6

15.7

Poultry, Meat, Broiler

2013

2014

2015

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Inventory (Reference)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Slaughter(Reference)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

9,900

9,910

10,070

10,095

10,300

10,215

Total Imports

672

670

675

719

670

720

Total Supply

10,572

10,580

10,745

10,814

10,970

10,935

Total Exports

1,083

1,081

1,100

1,131

1,100

1,150

Human Consumption

9,489

9,499

9,645

9,683

9,870

9,785

Other Use, Losses

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Consumption

9,489

9,499

9,645

9,683

9,870

9,785

Total Use

10,572

10,580

10,745

10,814

10,970

10,935

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

10,572

10,580

10,745

10,814

10,970

10,935

MIL HEAD, 1000 MT, PERCENT, PEOPLE, KG

Note: Per revised FAS instructions, exports of chicken paws to Hong Kong and China have been excluded from EU-28 Broiler Meat exports. Hong-Kong and China imports of chicken paws from EU-28 amounted to 61,00 MT in CY 2014, up 14 percent from CY 2013.