Production

Cottonseed production in MY15/16 is forecast to fall to 10.6 million tons, down from the estimated 11.7 million tons in the previous year. The cotton planting area is expected to decline in MY15/16 in response to lower profits as a result of modifications in government policy in MY14/15. During this year, the four-year-old "minimum price cotton purchase program" was replaced by a "target price-based direct subsidy" in support of cotton farmers. The new policy favors farmers in Xinjiang rather than farmers in the Yangtze River and Yellow River regions. Hence, this change in policy is expected to significantly reduce cotton planting intentions in My15/16, particularly in the Yangtze River and Yellow River regions. In addition, uncertainty about the MY15/16 "target price" (not yet announced) could also increase farmer's profit concerns and negatively impact planting intentions. Although updated information supports a stable or slightly falling planting area in Xinjiang it will not be enough to offset the drop in other areas. Thus, total MY15/16 cotton planted area is forecast to fall 9 percent from the previous year, and cotton seed production is forecast to fall by 1.1 million tons in cottonseed production.

Trade

Despite expected slower growth, China's domestic cotton seed production level remains comparatively high. Nonetheless, increased uses for cottonseed, such mushroom farming, have supported cottonseed imports in recent years. As a result, MY15/16 imports are forecast to rebound to 150,000 tons from the estimated 100,000 tons in MY14/15, in response to slower domestic production. Imports of U.S. cottonseed must complete a Pest Risk Assessment before gaining access to the Chinese market. Currently, USDA continues to engage China's import authority in this process.

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oilseed, Cottonseed (1000 tons; 1000 Ha)

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

Market Year Begin

10/2013

10/2014

10/2015

Area Planted (Cotton)

4,800

4,800

4,400

4,400

0

4,000

Area Harvested (Cotton)

4,800

4,800

4,400

4,400

0

4,000

Seed to Lint Ratio

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

12,835

12,835

11,757

11,757

0

10,650

MY Imports

150

81

90

100

0

150

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

12,985

12,916

11,847

11,857

0

10,800

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

10,300

10,231

9,600

9,657

0

8,900

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2,685

2,685

2,247

2,200

0

1,900

Total Dom. Cons.

12,985

12,916

11,847

11,857

0

10,800

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

12,985

12,916

11,847

11,857

0

10,800

CY Imports

150

74

90

100

0

130

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0