Production

Soybean Meal (SBM) continues to dominate the protein meal complex with MY15/16 production forecast at 60.95 million tons, up 5.5 percent over the estimated 57.79 million tons in MY14/15. While other protein meal production remains stable, imports of fish meal are constrained by limited supplies and relatively high prices, and imports of rapeseed meal are constrained by lower value. Given its cost effectiveness and nutritional value, SBM remains the best choice for feed production and increasingly concentrated animal production. With China's large soybean crush industry using larger imports of soybeans, domestic SBM production is expected to continue to stay high and adequately meet domestic market demand in MY15/16 and beyond.

Trade

China's SBM exports are expected to stay stable in MY14/15 at 2 million tons and to rise moderately in MY15/16 to 2.2 million tons. SBM exports recovered in MY13/14 driven by China's large crushing capacity and excessive SBM production. This increased the feasibility for exports to the nearby markets such as Japan and Korea. China's SBM exports to ASEAN countries will continue as India, the traditional SBM supplier to this region, is increasing consumption of domestic SBM. Japan and South Korea remain China's leading export markets, accounting for 66 percent of China's 2.1 million tons SBM exports in 2014. SBM imports have been minimal in recent years because of the large domestic SBM production. In general, SBM trade remains insignificant in proportion to the large domestic consumption.

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Meal, Soybean (1000 tons)

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

Market Year Begin

10/2013

10/2014

10/2015

Crush

68,850

68,850

74,500

73,000

0

77,000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

1

1

1

1

0

1

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

54,531

54,531

59,004

57,787

0

60,953

MY Imports

20

20

50

30

0

20

MY Imp. from U.S.

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

54,551

54,551

59,054

57,817

0

60,973

MY Exports

2,017

1,993

1,700

2,000

0

2,200

MY Exp. to EU

100

100

50

45

0

45

Industrial Dom. Cons.

960

960

1,000

1,000

0

1,050

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

51,574

51,598

56,354

54,817

0

57,723

Total Dom. Cons.

52,534

52,558

57,354

55,817

0

58,773

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

54,551

54,551

59,054

57,817

0

60,973

CY Imports

20

20

50

25

0

20

CY Imp. from U.S.

2

2

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2,000

2,092

1,100

1,900

0

2,100

CY Exp. to U.S.

20

36

20

30

0

30