Production

Industry sources estimate China's yearly domestic fishmeal production is about 400,000 tons. The production is not expected to increase as a result of declining natural resources. Growing feed industry demand creates an ever widening supply gap which must be filled by imports.

Imports

Fishmeal imports rose slightly to 1.04 million tons in 2014 from the 976,000 tons in 2013. Fish meal imports fell dramatically in 2013. Responding to lower fish meal production in Peru, China's largest supplier, fishmeal prices surged in 2012 to an average $1,712 per ton from the $1,357 per ton. The fish meal import price returned to an average $1,501/ton in 2014. However, Peru's low catch in second half of 2014 is likely to cut China's imports in first months of 2015. Although the world fish meal production growth appears weak and the price is rising, total fish meal imports are forecast to be stable at 1.05 million tons in 2015 given the huge size of China's animal and aquaculture industry. In 2014, Peru remained China's largest fishmeal supplier at 510,500 tons and accounted for 49 percent of China's total fish meal imports. Imports from the United States fell to 96,800 tons from 172,000 tons in the previous year, most likely due to higher prices (higher-quality fish meal price averaged $1,917/ton).

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Meal, Fish (1000 tons)

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

Market Year Begin

1/2014

1/2015

1/2016

Catch For Reduction

1,200

0

1,200

1,200

0

1,150

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0

0

0

0.33

0

0.33

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

408

408

440

400

0

380

MY Imports

1,000

1,038

900

1,000

0

1,050

MY Imp. from U.S.

80

87

70

90

0

95

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,408

1,446

1,340

1,400

0

1,430

MY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,407

1,445

1,340

1,400

0

1,430

Total Dom. Cons.

1,407

1,445

1,340

1,400

0

1,430

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,408

1,446

1,340

1,400

0

1,430

CY Imports

950

1,038

900

1,000

0

1,050

CY Imp. from U.S.

80

97

70

90

0

95

CY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0