As a result of increased crush of imported soybeans, MY15/16 soybean oil production is forecast at 13.76 million tons, up 5.8 percent from last year's estimate. Soybean oil remains the dominant vegetable oil, and will account for 43.6 percent for domestic vegetable oil consumption in MY15/16.

Soybean oil imports, which recovered to 1.4 million tons in MY12/13 after China lifted a ban on Argentine oil, are expected to level off to 1 million tons in MY15/16 as domestic production continues to grow. Imports of U.S. soybean oil are expected to fall in favor of Argentine supplies.

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Soybean (1000 tons)

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

Market Year Begin

10/2013

10/2014

10/2015

Crush

68,850

68,850

74,500

73,000

77,000

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0

0.1787

0

0.1787

0.1787

Beginning Stocks

1,021

466

958

958

993

Production

12,335

12,335

13,343

13,045

13,760

MY Imports

1,353

1,353

1,000

1,050

1,000

MY Imp. from U.S.

186

186

150

150

120

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

14,709

14,709

15,301

15,053

15,753

MY Exports

94

94

80

60

60

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

13,657

13,657

14,259

14,000

14,430

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

13,657

13,657

14,259

14,000

14,430

Ending Stocks

958

958

962

993

1,263

Total Distribution

14,709

14,709

15,301

15,053

15,753

CY Imports

1,100

1,135

1,100

1,050

1,000

CY Imp. from U.S.

150

186

150

150

120

CY Exports

90

90

90

90

70

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0