MY15/16 palm oil imports are forecast to increase to 5.9 million tons, unchanged from the previous year level. In in response to lower prices, China's palm oil imports peaked in MY12/13 at 6.59 million tons and resulted in large ending stocks. This prompted a significant import decline of about 1 million tons in MY13/14. Given an increasing supply from major supplying countries at lower prices, MY14/15 palm oil imports are estimated to recover to 5.9 million tons and this trend is expected to continue in MY15/16.

The current low price for soybean oil and rapeseed oil is expected to put pressure on palm oil consumption and import growth. In general, palm oil's inexpensive price, relative to soybean and rapeseed oil, is a major factor affecting its demand in China. Blending palm oil with other vegetable oils for cooking is popular but this practice will likely not increase given the current competitiveness of the soybean oil price. As mentioned above, the food processing industry in China uses large amounts of palm oil in processed foods, especially instant noodles. Due to the increasing numbers of busy consumers seeking convenient, inexpensive ready-to-eat foods, demand for instant noodles is expected to continue.

The growth of palm oil production in both Indonesia and Malaysia in 2014 surpassed Chinese palm oil demand and resulted in a high inventory and a price decline. The low price in MY14/15 and MY15/16 is expected to contribute to strong imports by China but also by other major importing countries such as India. The Indonesia government's recent subsidy raise for biodiesel could have an impact in stabilizing palm oil price.

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Palm (1000 tons)

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

Market Year Begin

10/2013

10/2014

10/2015

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

439

439

261

261

0

261

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

5,573

5,573

6,300

5,900

0

5,900

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,012

6,012

6,561

6,161

0

6,161

MY Exports

2

2

1

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

2,150

2,150

2,250

2,250

0

2,270

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3,599

3,599

3,960

3,650

0

3,660

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

5,749

5,749

6,210

5,900

0

5,930

Ending Stocks

261

261

350

261

0

231

Total Distribution

6,012

6,012

6,561

6,161

0

6,161

CY Imports

6,400

5,328

6,700

6,000

0

6,200

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

PSD Table

Country

China, Peoples Republic of

Commodity

Oil, Coconut (1000 tons)

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

USDA Official

Post Estimate New

Market Year Begin

10/2013

10/2014

10/2015

Crush

0

0

0

0

0

0

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

140

140

150

150

0

150

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

140

140

150

150

0

150

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

140

140

150

150

0

150

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

140

140

150

150

0

150

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

140

140

150

150

0

150

CY Imports

140

139

150

150

0

150

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Vegetable oil import policy changes

On January 1, 2013, AQSIQ implemented additional import inspection requirements for edible and crude vegetable oils. AQSIQ's clarification on specific items to be certified and the laboratories qualified for providing such test reports and certificates remains vague. As of this report, there are no alerts of trade disruptions related to this issue