Korea. Oilseeds Annual. Mar 2015 April 9, 2015

Production:

Soybeans account for approximately 73 percent of Korea's total oilseed production, while sesame and perilla combine for about 22 percent of the total in MY 2013/14. The remainder largely consists of rapeseed and peanuts. However, the Korean government has not released rapeseed production numbers since CY 2010.

The Korean Rural Economic Institute (KREI) conducted a nationwide planting intention survey of 1,155 soybean farmers from December 24-31, 2014. According to the survey results, MY 2015/16 soybean area is forecast to decrease to 70,201 hectares, down 4,451 hectares (6 percent) from the previous year's harvest. This decrease is due to domestic soybean prices that have been bearish affected by greater yields in two recent consecutive years. Using the KREI survey results as a benchmark, Post is forecasting MY 2015/16 soybean production to decrease by 13 percent from the previous year on a five-year-average yield.

In MY 2014/15, soybean production decreased to 139,267 MT, down 14,800 MT (10 percent) from the previous year due to declining soybean acreage coupled with lower yield, caused by unfavorable weather during the pollination stage in the southern area of the Korean peninsula.

In CY2015, government purchases of 2014 soybean crop were approximately 9,409 MT, reaching about 94 percent of purchasing target as farmers opted to sell their beans through the government purchase channel because of bearish commercial trends in the soybean market since fall 2013. The bearish commercial market prices caused by consecutive bumper crops forced farmers to sell their soybeans to the government at Korean Won 3,868/kg ($3.68) as the prescribed rate.

Source: Ministry for Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA)

1/ FAS Seoul forecast.

Source: Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI)

Note: Based on KREI telephone survey to 1,155 farm households for December 24-31, 2014

Source: Ministry for Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA)

Notes:

1/ FAS/Seoul estimates.

2/ In-shell

3/ Data will be available around May 2015

Source: Korea Agro-Fishery & Food Trade Corporation (aT)

1/ Price based on No. 1 grade of large-sized kernel

Source: Korea Agro-Fishery& Food Trade Corporation (aT)

Applicable Exchange Rate (Korean Won per USD): 1,052 on average in 2014

Consumption:

Soybeans account for the majority of oilseed consumption. Consumption in MY 2015/16 is forecast to remain unchanged from the current marketing year at 1.36 million MT amid gradually decreasing domestic production, of which 900,000 MT will go for crushing and 410,000 MT for food processing use in items like tofu, soymilk and soy sauce with others for feed, seed and waste remaining constant. All domestic production goes to food use. Future growth in overall soybean consumption is expected to be minimal. Consumption for crushing will be stagnant at the level of 900,000 MT since CJ Corporation, a leading Korean soybean crusher, decided to return to soybean crushing from canola seed crushing in the second half of 2013 due to narrow canola processing margin. CJ adapted their flexible crushing facilities system and operated according to a comparison of crushing margins between rapeseed/canola and soybeans since December 2012. In MY 2012/13, CJ Corporation crushed 62,000 MT of canola seed.

In MY 2014/15, soybean consumption is expected to decrease to 1.36 million MT due to less consumption of food soybeans caused by declining domestic soybean production, consisting of 900,000 MT for crushing and 410,000 MT for food, respectively.

In MY 2013/14, because of canola seed's narrow crushing margin, CJ Corporation returned to soybean crushing which resulted in increased soybean consumption for crushing to 897,610 MT, up 11 percent from the previous year. Bearish trend of domestic soybeans prices caused by a consecutive bumper crop led to the increase of domestic soybean use for food processing as well.

Source: Korea Soybean Processing Association

Source: Korea Agro-Fishery & Food Trade Corporation (aT)

Note: Quantity is on the basis of cleaned soybeans.

1/ Government, military employees and others

2/ Feed

Trade:

Soybeans account for more than 92 percent of total oilseed imports of which approximately 70 percent are used for crushing in the latest marketing year. Despite the constant demand for imported soybeans, MY 2015/16 soybean imports are forecast to remain unchanged from the current marketing year estimate of 1.2 million MT. MY 2014/15 soybean imports are expected to decrease 6 percent from the previous year due to a higher beginning stocks.

Crushing

Imports of crushing soybeans in MY2015/16 are forecast to remain largely unchanged from the current marketing year's estimate of 900,000 MT in consideration of crushers' preference to process soybeans rather than rapeseed.

Imports during the first three months of MY2014/2015 (Oct-Dec) reached slightly less than 220,000 MT with an additional 440,000 MT contracted for delivery during Jan - Jun 2015. However, import numbers during the first quarter of MY2014/15 were up 10 percent over the same period of MY 2013/14, crushers are expected to import 3 percent less than the previous year's level in consideration of higher level beginning stocks of crushing soybeans.

The CY 2015 autonomous crushing soybean quota is 1.1 million tons with an adjustable in-quota tariff, which was cut from 3 percent to zero. Under the KORUS FTA, the duty on U.S. crushing soybeans fell to zero immediately as of March 15, 2012. In MY 2013/14 the majority of crushing beans came from the United States and Brazil followed by Paraguay.

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

a/ Paraguay

Source: Local Traders

1/ optional origin between Brazil and Paraguay

Food Use

The Korea Agro-Fishery and Food Trade Corporation (aT), the government's state trading arm, controls the bulk of marketing of non-GMO food grade soybeans for food processing under its autonomous WTO TRQ. aT distributes soybeans to end-users and charges a mark-up for margins that support domestic crop production in addition to handling costs and cleaning, which involves removing any foreign material and broken soybeans upon arrival.

Under its CY 2016 anticipated TRQ based procurement plan, aT contracted for 180,000 MT of soybeans on basis trading contracts at the end of 2014, with delivery during the first half of CY 2016. Accordingly, in MY 2015/16 imports of food grade soybeans are forecast in the range of 280,000-300,000 MT under autonomous WTO TRQ, with the majority coming from the United States followed by China, Canada, and Brazil. The United States is expected to retain 60 – 70 percent of the import market for food use soybeans. The gains under the KORUS FTA will further strengthen the U.S. position. U.S. food grade soybeans are primarily used in products like tofu, soybean paste/sauce and soymilk, while China mainly supplies soybeans for sprouting.

Under its CY 2015 TRQ of 270,000 MT based procurement plan, aT will directly import 250,000 MT of soybeans, of which 220,000 MT is for food processing and 30,000 MT is for sprouting. The import license for the remaining 20,000 MT has been allocated to end-users, who can contract with soybeans suppliers directly. In late 2013, aT purchased 200,000 MT on basis trading contracts from the United States for delivery during the first half of CY 2015. The remaining 20,000 MT will likely be purchased off the spot market sometime in CY 2015 with delivery during the second half of CY 2015.

In CY2014, aT distributed about 191,188 MT of imported food-quality soybeans (excluding soy by-products and sprouts) at an average price of Korean Won1,020 per KG (or $970/MT), which was unchanged from the previous year. During this period, the average price of imported soybeans for food processing was $749/MT (CIF). Based on these figures, aT made an estimated $42 million in selling imported food grade soybeans to end-users. However, as Korean soybean farmers groups and NGOs have complained about the government selling price of imported soybeans being much cheaper than domestically grown soybeans, aT is anticipated to increase the selling price of imported soybeans in the near future.

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

a/Canada (7,584) and Australia (4,836)

The government set the 2015 autonomous WTO TRQ for U.S. #1 grade soybeans at about 270,000 MT, consisting of approximately 30,000 MT of soybeans for sprouting and 240,000 MT for food processing. The TRQ also includes a 20,000 MT allocation for direct import under an import license quota, consisting of 10,000 MT of soybeans for sprouting and 10,000 MT of food grade soybeans, which will effectively allow end-users or importers to bypass aT and buy from direct sources. The applicable in-quota tariff rate is 5 percent, while the out-of-quota tariff rate is a prohibitive 487 percent, or 956 Korean won (or US$ 0.87) per kg, whichever is greater.

Under the KORUS-FTA, Korea has established a zero tariff rate quota for 10,000 MT of food-grade identity-preserved (IP) soybeans in the first year of the agreement in CY 2012, increasing to 20,000 MT in year two and 25,000 MT in year three. For years four and beyond, the TRQ grows three percent annually in perpetuity. As 2015 represents year four of the agreement, the quota for this year is 25,750 MT. The TRQ is administered by associations of food-grade soybean processors and gives U.S. suppliers direct market access to these companies. However, Korean food soybeans processors imported just 3,453 MT, or 35 percent of the 2012 KORUS FTA quota due to unexpectedly high U.S. soybean prices, short lead time for contracting IP soybeans, and the availability of lower-priced soybeans marketed by aT. In CY 2013, Korean soybean processors who secured 20,000 MT of TRQ under the KORUS FTA imported 12,046 MT, or 60 percent of the 2013 TRQ because they failed to purchase IP food grade soybeans in the spot markets on time, which has typically traded on a contract farming basis.

In CY 2014, Korean soybean processors successfully imported 23,832 MT, 95 percent of 25,000 MT of the KORUS FTA TRQ by securing IP food grade soybeans through farming contracts in advance. The KORUS FTA TRQ of 25,750 MT in CY 2015 has already been allocated to soybean processors.

As the Korea-Canada FTA went into effect on January 1, 2015, Korea established a duty free quota for 5,000 MT of food grade identity preserved soybeans in the first year, increasing by 2,500 MT annually up to 15,000 MT in 2019 for the first five years and continuing to increase by 400 MT annually up to 17,000 MT in 2024, the tenth year. For years eleven and beyond, the in-quota quantity will be fixed at 17,000 MT annually.

Korea also set up a duty free quota for 500 MT of Australian food grade IP soybeans in 2014 for the first year when the Korea-Australia FTA took effect on December 12, 2014. An annual increment of 50 MT becomes 550 MT in 2015 for the second year, reaching 1,000 MT in 2024, the eleventh year. The in-quota quantity shall remain fixed at 1,000 MT for years 12 and beyond.

Source: Korea Agro-Fishery & Food Trade Corporation (aT)

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS); Korea Agro-Fishery & Food Trade Corporation (aT)

Source: Korea-Canada FTA, Korea-Australia FTA

Soybean, Oilseed PS&D

Soybean Import Trade Matrix

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

a/ October – December 2013

b/ Paraguay

c/ Canada (1,346), Australia (23) and Russia (90)

Source: Korea Customs Service

Source: Korea Customs Research Institute, Tariff Schedules of Korea.

Note: The Seed Industry Act restricts imports of listed commodities for planting seed purposes.

1/The number in parenthesis is the in-quota tariff rate assessed on 1.1 million tons of soybeans imported for crushing and feed purposes for CY 2015.

2/ An applied duty rate of 5 percent is applied to 270,000 tons of food grade soybeans imported and administered by the Korea Agro-Fishery & Food Trade Corporation (aT) under the WTO TRQ. Soybeans imported out-of-quota by private importers will be assessed a tariff rate of 487 percent or Korean won 956/Kg, whichever is greater.

3/The in-quota amount is 4,907.3 tons on a shelled basis. Peanuts imported out-of-quota are assessed a tariff of 230.5 percent.

4/The number in parenthesis is the in-quota tariff rate assessed on 160,000 tons of cotton seed for feed in the CY 2015.

5/The in-quota amount under the WTO TRQ is 6,731 tons. Sesame imported out-of-quota is assessed a tariff of 630 percent or Korean won 6,660/Kg, whichever is greater.

6/ 40 percent or Korean won 410/Kg, whichever is greater.