PS&D

Sorghum

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Japan

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

78

78

81

71

0

71

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

1,003

1,003

1,000

1,000

0

1,000

TY Imports

1,003

1,003

1,000

1,000

0

1,000

TY Imp. from U.S.

255

330

0

140

0

0

Total Supply

1,081

1,081

1,081

1,071

0

1,071

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

1,000

1,010

1,000

1,000

0

1,000

FSI Consumption

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Consumption

1,000

1,010

1,000

1,000

0

1,000

Ending Stocks

81

71

81

71

0

71

Total Distribution

1,081

1,081

1,081

1,071

0

1,071

Yield

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

Production

Like corn, production of sorghum is negligible in Japan.

Consumption

As sorghum is a substitute for corn, its utilization ratio in the production of compound and mixed feed fluctuates. Depending on its price relative to corn and other ingredients, the ratio is typically between 4 and 7 percent, or between 1.1 and 1.7 MMT. In MY2013/14, as the price of feed sorghum was higher than that of feed corn, utilization of sorghum in feed decreased to approximately four percent, from around 7 percent in MY2012/13. This translates to a decrease in volume of roughly 700,000 MT. Assuming that the price of sorghum will continue to be at a disadvantage compared to corn, the utilization ratio of sorghum in feed is expected to stabilize at current levels. Therefore, Post forecasts MY2014/15 and MY2015/16 consumption to remain at approximately one million MT.

Prices

CIF prices for feed sorghum declined significantly in MY2013/14, and the U.S. price, in particular, fell 20 percent. Due to a supply shortage, the Australian price rose, surpassing the price of U.S. sorghum.

CIF Price of Feed Sorghum

MY: October - September

Partner Country

Unit

Unit Value(United States Dollars)

% Change

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

MY2014 /MY2013

World

MT

300.37

304

272.58

- 10.34

Argentina

MT

278.59

283.09

263.85

- 6.80

United States

MT

340.43

354.16

282.03

- 20.37

Australia

MT

307.94

327.51

334.77

2.22

Trade

Since sorghum is mainly a substitute crop, potential growth in Japan's sorghum imports largely depends on its price relative to corn and other feed ingredients. Imports are classified as being either for feed or food. However, despite this technicality, practically all of the sorghum imported under the food HS code eventually ends up in the feed sector. As the price competitiveness of corn against sorghum improved, feed sorghum imports in MY2013/14 halved from the previous year. Assuming corn prices remain attractive, Post forecasts that Japan will import one million MT of sorghum in both MY2014/15 and MY 2015/16.

Sorghum Imports Total (Annual)

MY: October - September

Partner Country

Unit

Quantity

% Share

% Change

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

MY2014 /MY2013

World

MT

1479461

1896304

1003116

100.00

100.00

100.00

- 47.10

Argentina

MT

506336

1083819

643859

34.22

57.15

64.19

- 40.59

United States

MT

118045

177944

330364

7.98

9.38

32.93

85.66

Australia

MT

854712

633140

26876

57.77

33.39

2.68

- 95.76

India

MT

226

1025

1147

0.02

0.05

0.11

11.90

Thailand

MT

0

286

792

0.00

0.02

0.08

176.92

China

MT

136

88

68

0.01

0.00

0.01

- 22.73

Belgium

MT

6

2

10

0.00

0.00

0.00

400.00

Source: Japan Ministry of Finance

Sorghum Imports Total (Monthly)

Partner Country

Unit

Quantity

*Change

10/2014

11/2014

12/2014

01/2015

Total

World

MT

88355

58567

117557

102995

367474

-28.3%

Argentina

MT

77675

47437

92472

99501

317085

-9.0%

United States

MT

10528

10933

24930

3236

49627

-63.7%

India

MT

87

109

44

155

395

-6.0%

Australia

MT

21

44

89

42

196

-99.3%

Other

MT

44

44

22

61

171

80.0%

Source: Japan Ministry of Finance

*Change from the same period previous year

Stocks

Following the GOJ's 2003 policy of reducing overall feed grain stocks, sorghum stocks have shrunk significantly. Post estimates the current government and commercial stocks will remain constant at less than 100,000 MT.