Sunflowerseed

Sunflower seed PSD

Oilseed, Sunflower seed Turkey

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Sep 2013

Market Year Begin: Sept 2014

Market Year Begin: Sep 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

700

690

550

530

510

Area Harvested

690

690

530

530

510

Beginning Stocks

177

75

140

78

88

Production

1,400

1,400

1,200

1,200

1,150

MY Imports

583

570

850

700

780

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

350

300

350

350

400

Total Supply

2,160

2,045

2,190

1,978

2,018

MY Exports

33

2

40

5

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1,980

1,960

2,000

1,880

1,920

Food Use Dom. Cons.

4

3

5

3

3

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

3

2

3

2

2

Total Dom. Cons.

1,987

1,965

2,008

1,885

1,925

Ending Stocks

140

78

142

88

88

Total Distribution

2,160

2,045

2,190

1,978

2,018

CY Imports

650

545

800

750

800

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

35

1

40

5

5

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Production

MY 2014 sunflower seed area and production were 530,000 hectares and 1.2 MMT, following a record planting and crop of 690,000 hectares and 1.4 MMT in MY 2013. Lower returns on sunflowerseed adversely affected planting, particularly in the Central Anatolian region, in MY 2014 causing planting and production decline. In MY 2015 sunflowerseed continued to be disadvantaged against corn in Central Anatolia. In the Thrace region, crop rotation needs are expected to cause a decline in area, despite excessive rains and flooding in wheat fields that need to be replanted with sunflowerseed. Consequently, MY 2015 sunflowerseed area and production are projected to be 510,000 hectares and 1.15 MMT.

In recent years sunflowerseed planting has been shifting from traditional areas such as Thrace and the southern Marmara region, where crops depend on precipitation, to new regions such as Central Anatolia and the GAP region where irrigation is available, providing higher yields and income.

In the Central Anatolian region, farmers are reportedly moving away from planting sunflowerseed in favor of higher returns on other crops such as corn, potatoes and sugar beets. In the Çukurova region, however, good precipitation levels in the winter months will support sunflowerseed planting. The GOT has not increased production support fees for sunflowerseed for the 2015 crop, which will remain at 300 TL per ton and will not counter the decline.

While sunflowerseed competes for land with canola, malting barley and wheat in the Thrace region, production of sunseed in other regions such as Central Anatolia competes with corn, sugar beet and vegetables and in Çukurova region with wheat. In general Çukurova region has an advantage to grow sunflower seed as the crop matures about a month earlier than in Thrace so farmers are able to take advantage of the higher prices. Increase in production at other regions in recent years caused production in Thrace to decline from 80 percent to about 60 percent of the total.

The abundant crop in the Black Sea region has kept sunflower seed prices about ten percent less than last year in MY 2014. Accordingly, sunflowerseed C&F Turkey prices were about US$ 395 per MT in September, US$ 430 in November and about US$ 445 in February.

The largest Agricultural Sales Cooperative Union, Trakya Birlik, bought about 298,000 MT of 2014 crop, with TL 1,320 per ton (about US$585) compared to 260,000 MT of 2013 crop with 1,200 TL (US$ 600) per ton.

Soybean

Soybean PSD

Oilseed, Soybean Turkey

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Sep 2013

Market Year Begin: Sep 2014

Market Year Begin: Sep 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

35

35

40

35

40

Area Harvested

35

35

35

35

40

Beginning Stocks

460

203

406

284

309

Production

125

130

130

135

145

MY Imports

1,608

1,608

1,600

1,900

2,000

MY Imp. from U.S.

385

350

350

800

750

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,193

1,941

2,136

2,319

2,454

MY Exports

7

7

10

10

15

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

600

600

600

1,000

1,050

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,180

1,050

1,100

1,000

1,050

Total Dom. Cons.

1,780

1,650

1,700

2,000

2,100

Ending Stocks

406

284

426

309

339

Total Distribution

2,193

1,941

2,136

2,319

2,454

CY Imports

1,600

2,008

1,500

2,050

2,100

CY Imp. from U.S.

350

492

350

750

800

CY Exports

10

3

10

10

10

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Production

MY 2015 Soybean planting and production projected about 40,000 hectares and 145,000 MT highest of many years. Farmers in the Çukurova region are projected to increase planting due to lower cost of production and low returns in cotton planting last season. MY 2014 Turkish soybean area and production was 35,000 hectares and 135,000 MT. The Çukurova region is the main soy growing area in Turkey, supplying about ninety percent of the total production. Small but increased planting is also seen in the GAP region.

The GOT has been encouraging the increase of oilseeds with higher production bonus payments. Although the soybean production bonus has not been increased in recent years, local planting is increasing due production cost advantages and large domestic demand. The production bonus for soybean has been the same over the last four years at 500 Turkish Lira (TL) per ton ($195/ton) and the 2014 crop year bonus will be the same despite the fifteen percent devaluation of Turkish Lira against the dollar over the last three months. While the production bonuses have remained the same, the GOT has been providing about $80 per ton to farmers to use certified planting seeds. Yields are high in the Çukurova region as farmers are likely to be technically proficient and the crop is irrigated.

Consumption (soy)

The Turkish broiler industry had a good start in 2014 but due to the conflict to Turkey's south, shipping difficulties to neighboring countries constrained exports during the summer months. New routes helped to regain some exports later in the year.

Although the industry targeted growth of five percent in 2014, growth was held to about six percent. An additional six percent of growth is also projected in 2015 for total poultry meat production, will reach 2.25 MMT. Increases in domestic demand caused by high red meat prices and exports to the Middle Eastern countries were the main reasons for the increase.

Presently, per capita poultry meat consumption is about 22 kilograms and the goal of the industry is to reach 28 kilogram in ten years. Iraq continues to be the main market for Turkish poultry exports, but producers are targeting new markets such as Saudi Arabia and far-eastern countries for a further increase in exports. Turkey also started to export an increasing amount of mechanically de-boned meat (MDM) to Russia in recent months. Export sanctions between Russia and the West opened up a new venue to the Turkish poultry industry. While egg exports to Russia are still small, poultry meat (all MDM) exports increased significantly and are expected to reach about 150,000 MT annually. MDM sales are particularly important for the Turkish poultry industry as the GOT has forbidden the use of MDM in processed poultry products domestically, and this product was only used in rendering.

Egg production continued to increase as well, reaching 17.5 billion in 2014, compared to 16.7 billion pieces in 2013, and 15.7 billion pieces in 2012. Production of eggs is projected to continue to increase in 2015 and reach 18.5 billion. Domestic egg consumption per person increased in recent years, reaching an estimated 180 pieces in 2014, compared to 120 in 2004. YUMBIR, Turkey's egg industry association, is continuing promotional campaigns to increase consumption of eggs to 250 pieces per person per year. Eggs exports are increasing as well in 2014, which were 4.5 billion pieces compared to 150 million pieces in 2006. Neighboring Middle Eastern countries are the main buyers of Turkish eggs.

Cotton seed

Cottonseed PSD

Oilseed, Cottonseed Turkey

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted (Cotton)

330

330

430

430

380

Area Harvested (Cotton)

330

330

430

430

380

Beginning Stocks

72

15

5

5

5

Production

740

740

1,026

1,030

880

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

812

755

1,031

1,035

885

MY Exports

2

0

1

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

750

740

880

1,020

870

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

55

10

100

10

10

Total Dom. Cons.

805

750

980

1,030

880

Ending Stocks

5

5

50

5

5

Total Distribution

812

755

1,031

1,035

885

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2

0

2

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Production

Turkish cottonseed area and production is projected to decline about twelve percent following a large crop in MY 2014. Planting in the cotton seed areas will be shifting to wheat and corn due to disappointing returns. Total area and production for MY 2015 are projected at 380,000 hectares and 880,000 MT.

Canola

Production

The deficit of local oilseeds and the availability of excess crushing capacity have inspired more farmers to plant canola in recent years. In 2013, planting was 35,000 hectares and domestic production was 80,000 MT. Planting increased in 2014 to 38,000 hectares and production is expected to be 85,000 MT.

Agricultural Sales Cooperative Unions

Trakya Birlik and Karadeniz Birlik, two of the leading Agricultural Sales Cooperative Unions (ASCU's), continue to play a very important role supporting sunflower seed production in Turkey. Other ASCU's includes TARIS (cotton and olive oil), Çukobirlik (cotton and soybean) and Antbirlik (cotton and cottonseed). All of the ASCU's have thousands of members to whom they provide seeds, fertilizer and low-cost financing prior to planting. The ASCU's then offer attractive prices after the harvest.

Trakya Birlik reported to have purchased 298,000 MT of 2104 crop compared to 260,000 MT of 2013 crop and 206,000 MT in MY 2012. Karadeniz Birlik, however, had to lower its purchases to 17,000 MT due to short supply compared to 55,000 MT last year.

Generally, famers deliver only enough to the ASCUs to meet their obligations as they preferred to sell more to traders and crushers at higher prices. The combined purchases of the two coops represent about twenty-six percent of the total crops, slightly higher than last year.

Production support

The Turkish government continues to support oilseed production with production premium programs. According to the 2015 production bonus announcements, the GOT has not increased production bonus levels despite the expectations of farmers, in the view of upcoming elections in June. Below is the list of bonuses for recent years. These production bonus payments on old crop harvests were made in August, just before the harvest. Industry sources insist that for the future of domestic oilseed production it is crucial that sales cooperatives and the government announce adequate domestic price and bonus payments in advance, and pay promptly.

Turkey: Oilseed Production Premiums (TL/MT)*

Crop

2013

2014

2015

% increase

Sunflower seed

240

300

300

0 %

Soybean

500

500

500

0 %

Canola

400

400

400

0 %

Seed cotton

500

550

550

0 %

* The premiums above are for crops of the previous year, such as 2015 premiums for the 2014 crop

Consumption

The majority of oilseeds and products are utilized for oil, meal and full fat. Growth in domestic soybean and meal consumption will continue to be strong in MY 2014 due to growth in poultry and aqua-culture.

In MY 2014, the local crush is expected to increase as higher industrial use of soy oil is resulting in favorable crushing margins. Utilization of full fat soy will also increase, but modestly. Relatively higher crush compared to earlier years is expected to continue in MY 2015, despite the industry bearing larger stocks of soy oil, if the conditions do not change. Aqua-culture also contributed to the growth in soybean meal consumption, although to a lesser degree.

Cottonseed consumption fluctuates along with the local production, since there is no import and export activity. Consumption will be higher in MY 2014 but is expected to decline in MY 2015.

Total crushing capacity has reached about 7 million MT per year. The new high-capacity modern crushers lower the cost of crushing through economies of scale, forcing smaller crushers with older technology out of business. Low capacity utilization, about 60 percent, also remains a problem for the industry. Turkey traditionally exports oils and fats to neighboring countries, such as sunflower seed oil, corn oil and margarine.

Trade

Turkey's total imports of sunflower seed for crushing for MY 2013 was 570,000 MT, down about eight percent compared to last year. Increasingly, crushing facilities in Black Sea countries are forcing Turkey to import more oil rather than seeds. Moldova (219,000 MT), Bulgaria (139,000 MT), Romania (117,000 MT) and Russia (72,000 MT) were the main suppliers of sunflower seed for Turkey.

During the first four months of MY 2014 total sun seed imports were 197,000 MT. Romania (127,000MT), Bulgaria (34,000 MT) and Moldova (30,000 MT), were the main suppliers of Turkey.

Total soy bean imports during the MY 2013 were 1.6MMT compared to 1.25 MMT of a year ago due to improved domestic crushing margins. Paraguay (492,000 MT), Brazil (415,000 MT) and the United States (350,000 MT) were the leading supplier of soybeans, followed by Ukraine (143,000 MT) and Argentina (127,000 MT).

Soy imports continue to be strong during the first four months of MY2014 reaching 674,000 MT. The United States was the leading supplier with 401,000 MT, followed by Ukraine (242,000 MT), Brazil (136,000 MT), and Paraguay (129,000 MT).

The large increase in crushing capacity and lack of local seeds triggered record imports of canola seeds during 2014, reaching 435,000MT compared to 134,000 MT in 2013. Romania (100,000 MT), Bulgaria (78,000 MT), Russia (73,000 MT) and Ukraine (41,000 MT) were the main sources.

In the medium and long term, rising household incomes will increase the demand for livestock, poultry and aqua-culture products, ensuring continued demand for protein meals for feed. Simultaneously, consumers will demand higher-quality vegetable oils. The GOT continues to support oilseed production and also has ambitious irrigation projects throughout Turkey that will help them meet a larger portion of the demand through oilseeds such as sunflowerseed and cotton seed. But demand for imported soybeans and meal is unlikely to be met by local production. Therefore, Turkey's demand for imported oilseeds, meal, and oils will remain despite relatively high tariffs.

Policy

According to the 2015 customs regime, sunflowerseed imports are subject to a tariff of 27 percent with observation price of $675 per ton. Soybeans are subject to a zero percent tariff, and cottonseed and canola seeds are subject to a 10 percent tariff.