Production

Total meal production in MY 2014 is projected to increase about twenty percent to 2.3 MMT due to significant increases in soybean meal and cotton seed meal. In MY 2015 total meal production will be slightly less at about 2.29 MMT due to a decline in cottonseed meal. Turkey continues to utilize a significant amount of full-fat beans. In MY 2014, about the half of the supplies is crushed and the rest is used for full-fat production.

In addition to traditional meals, Turkey also produced about 284,000 MT of canola meal in CY 2014.

According to industry sources, as of 2014 there are about 480 active feed mills in Turkey with an estimated total capacity of 17 MMT at one shift. There are also on-farm feed mills with total production is estimated about 3 MMT per year. The feed sector has been growing at a remarkable speed; new modern mills with large production capacities are pushing smaller ones out of business. It is estimated that presently 247 factories with old technology and lower capacities are idle. Total Turkish compound feed production has increased on average of eight percent during the last ten years. Presently, Turkish feed industry is among the world's top ten producers and in the top five in Europe. The sector is projected to grow an average of six percent in coming years to reach 30 MMT by 2023.

The main reasons for the growth are:

  • the increase in production in all sectors; broiler, layer, dairy, beef and aqua feed, also
  • the trend of moving from feed on farm to compound feed and
  • a larger percentage of the feed sector moving into the registered economy.

In CY 2014 compound feed production was estimated to increase about seven percent, of which poultry and fish feed production increased about four percent, and livestock feed production was up about ten percent. During CY 2015 an overall increase of seven percent is also projected. Turkey's compound feed exports are only a fraction of its capacity and production due to high raw material costs. Annual exports were down to 225,000 MT in 2014 from 380,000 MT in 2013. Neighboring countries and the Northern Cyprus are the export destinations for Turkish feed.

Note: Post has been adjusting extraction rates to 55 percent, from 38 percent, to better reflect local practices. The majority of Turkish mills are not separating the hulls from the meal while producing sunflowerseed meal. This practice increases the amount of meal produced, but lowers the protein content and the quality of the meal. Due to the low protein content, locally produced sunflower meal is not used in poultry rations, but in livestock rations. As a result, farmers are required to use either larger amounts of sunflower meal or alternative meals such as DDGS and CGFP to obtain the protein amounts needed in their rations.

Sunflower seed meal PSD

Meal, Sunflowerseed Turkey

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Sep 2013

Market Year Begin: Sep 2014

Market Year Begin: Sep 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1,980

1,960

2,000

1,890

1,920

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.

0.5587

0.

0.5529

0.5495

Beginning Stocks

0

99

21

151

145

Production

753

1,095

762

1,045

1,055

MY Imports

720

757

650

700

725

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

40

0

50

55

Total Supply

1,473

1,951

1,433

1,896

1,925

MY Exports

0

0

0

1

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,452

1,800

1,433

1,750

1,770

Total Dom. Cons.

1,452

1,800

1,433

1,750

1,770

Ending Stocks

21

151

0

145

150

Total Distribution

1,473

1,951

1,433

1,896

1,925

CY Imports

600

773

700

800

825

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

5

5

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

SME

1,371

1,700

1,353

1,652

1,671

Consumption

In general, total oilseed meal consumption moves in line with developments in the domestic poultry, livestock and aqua-culture sectors. Overall, Turkish poultry meat production tripled in the past ten years and another fifty percent increase is projected in the coming ten years.

In 2015, poultry meat production is expected to increase less than two percent due to a lower increase in domestic consumption and exports. The layer industry is also projected to expand about six percent during the year for the same reasons. The livestock sector (beef, dairy, and aqua–culture) is expected to continue to grow as well.

Turkey canola meal consumption went up more than a hundred percent in 2014 and reached 327,000 MT, including imports and production from locally produced and imported seeds. CY 2013 consumption was about 150,000 MT.

Total consumption of corn based feed ingredients, DDGS and CGFP, were up slightly in 2014. DDGS imports decline somewhat in 2014 to 428,000 MT, while CGFP imports increased to 299,000 MT. Imports of both items are expected to continue in 2015, mostly from conventional varieties providing

Non-U.S., sources due to its competitive prices and nutritional qualities.

Trade

Sunflowerseed meal

Turkey's sunflowerseed meal imports were up about seventy-five percent during MY 2013, compared to a year ago, due to abundant supplies in the Black Sea region. Imports reached 757,000 MT compared to 432,000MT in MY 2012. Turkey continued to source its sunflower seed meal from Russia (458,000 MT), and Ukraine (254,000 MT) due to increased availability as a result of increased crushing capacities in these countries.

Imports continued to be strong in first four months of MY 2014, reaching 242,000 MT. Russia (136,000 MT), Ukraine (73,000 MT) and Bulgaria (18170MT) were the main suppliers.

Soybean meal PSD

Meal, Soybean Turkey

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

600

600

600

1,000

1,060

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

1.

0.7667

1.

0.75

0.7453

Beginning Stocks

292

292

157

191

181

Production

473

460

473

750

790

MY Imports

744

728

1,000

600

650

MY Imp. from U.S.

242

242

350

100

150

MY Imp. from EU

240

18

240

20

20

Total Supply

1,509

1,480

1,630

1,541

1,621

MY Exports

52

49

30

60

70

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,300

1,240

1,425

1,300

1,370

Total Dom. Cons.

1,300

1,240

1,425

1,300

1,370

Ending Stocks

157

191

175

181

181

Total Distribution

1,509

1,480

1,630

1,541

1,621

CY Imports

1,100

616

1,150

550

600

CY Imp. from U.S.

350

169

350

100

150

CY Exports

45

64

25

80

90

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

SME

1,300

1,240

1,425

1,300

1,370

Soybean meal

Domestic production of soy meal in MY 2014 is projected to increase to 750,000 MT due to favorable crushing margins as a result of increasing industrial use of soybean oil. The recent decline in import tax, from 13.5 to 5 percent, also facilitated imports of soy meal, diversifying the EU to sources in South America and the USA.

In MY 2013, Turkey's soymeal imports declined about 28 percent compared to the year before due to a shift in crushing margins favoring soy imports. The U.S. and Argentina were among the leading suppliers with 241,000 MT and 231,000 MT, respectively. Paraguay (132,000 MT), Brazil (105,000 MT) and Spain (17,000 MT) were other leading suppliers to Turkey.

Turkey exported a record amount of soymeal in MY 2103 at about 49,000 MT. Northern Cyprus and Iraq were the main destinations with 17,000 MT each.

Turkey also imported about 157,000 MT of soy meal during the first quarter of MY 2014. Argentina (94,000 MT), Brazil (49,000 MT) and Paraguay (12,000 MT) were the leading suppliers.

Cotton seed meal PSD

Meal, Cottonseed Turkey

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

750

740

880

1,020

870

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.

0.5541

0.

0.5588

0.5517

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Production

335

410

390

570

480

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

335

410

390

570

480

MY Exports

5

4

1

10

12

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

330

406

389

560

468

Total Dom. Cons.

330

406

389

560

468

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

335

410

390

570

480

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1

10

1

12

15

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

SME

267

329

315

454

379

Other

In 2014, Turkey's total imports of DDGS declined about twelve percent to 428,000 MT despite the increase in orders following the world price decline in the summer months. Turkish poultry operation who wanted to take advantage of low world prices placed large orders of DDGS from U.S. suppliers, but inconsistency in biotech testing results caused cargos to be rejected and shipments to be canceled. Due to import restrictions caused by the Biosafety Law, total U.S. exports declined about thirty-three percent to 227,000 MT. According to the law, all biotech varieties need to receive approval from the Biosafety Board for import. The Board has approved only fourteen corn events. Until all events utilized in the U.S. are approved, imports will carry the risk of rejection. Despite the import problems, the U.S. still has fifty-three percent of the import market. Russia (77,000 MT), Bulgaria (35,000 MT) and Hungry (34,000MT) were the other leading suppliers for DDGS.

CGFP improved about sixteen percent in 2014 reaching 299,000 MT. The U.S. was the leading supplier with 116,000 MT. Ukraine (62,000 MT), Bulgaria (49,000 MT) and Russia (28,000 MT) were the other leading suppliers of for CGFP.

Policy

Sunflowerseed meal, cottonseed meal and canola meal import duties are 11.5 percent for EU and EFTA countries, and 13.5 percent for all other sources. The soybean meal import tax is zero from EU sources and Bosnia, but 5 percent from the rest of the world. Both DDGS and CGFP are subject to a 4.3 percent customs tax.