OVERVIEW

Global production is nearly unchanged from last month as reductions for many Sub-Saharan Africa countries, Indonesia, and Vietnamlargely offset gains for Pakistan and Mali. Global trade is slightly reduced driven by smaller exports from Egypt and Japan. Global consumption is lowered, but still outpaces production and is the highest on record. Stocks are forecast higher. U.S. exports are raised on increased sales to markets in Western Hemisphere.

Export quotes for U.S. medium-grain rice have declined in recent months largely due to weak foreign buying. Sales and shipments, particularly to Turkey and Jordan, have been slower than last year. Nevertheless, quotes remain high relative to 2013 staying just under $1,000 per ton. This could be due to concerns over potentially tight supplies in California, where a prolonged drought is constraining water availability. Last week's NASS Prospective Plantings survey indicated that medium-grain rice area in California will drop 5 percent from a year ago to the lowest acreage since 1992. In 2014, California produced a little over 60 percent of the U.S. medium-grain rice crop, below its 10-year average of more than 75 percent.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES

  • Pakistan's exports in 2014 are down 100,000 tons to 3.3 million on competition from India.
  • Japan's exports in 2014 are revised down 137,000 tons to 63,000 on food aid shipment data. Revisions are made from 2001/02 onwards. For 2015, exports are cut 125,000 tons to 75,000 to be more in line with previous year.
  • Egypt's exports for 2015 are halved to 250,000 tons reflecting restrictive measures on exports.