Production:

Fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yields correlate directly with palm kernel (PK) production levels. MY 2014/15 and 2015/16 CPO production levels are estimated at 33 MMT and 35 MMT respectively. Assuming a 23 percent oil extraction rate (OER), Indonesia is estimated to produce 144 MMT of FFB in MY 2014/15 and 152 MMT in MY 2015/16. PK accounts for about six percent of total FFB weight, indicating that PK production will reach 8.7 MMT in MY 2014/15 and 9.2 MMT in MY 2015/16.

Consumption:

Post expects local millers will process 8.7 MMT of PK in MY 2014/15 and 9.2 MMT in MY 2015/16 respectively. PK is not directly used as animal or livestock feed in Indonesia. However, palm kernel meal/cake (PKM), a byproduct from extracting PKO from the kernel, is used in limited quantities by the local cattle industry.

Stocks:

PK ending stocks are expected to reach 133,000 MT in MY 2014/15 and 143,000 MT in MY 2015/16. Stocks are based on the assumption that palm kernel mills will maintain two days operating supply.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistic

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

10,325

0

10,640

0

10,800

Area Harvested

8,115

8,115

8,540

8,540

0

8,965

Trees

0

1,548,750

0

1,596,000

0

1,643,250

Beginning Stocks

90

90

90

123

0

133

Production

8,050

8,100

8,700

8,700

0

9,200

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8,140

8,190

8,790

8,823

0

9,333

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

7,980

7,997

8,630

8,620

0

9,120

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

70

70

70

70

0

70

Total Dom. Cons.

8,050

8,067

8,700

8,690

0

9,190

Ending Stocks

90

123

90

133

0

143

Total Distribution

8,140

8,190

8,790

8,823

0

9,333

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

TS=TD

0

-0

0

0

0

0