Production:

Indonesia will crush 8.600 MMT and 9.12 MMT of palm kernel in MY 2014/15 and MY 2015/16, respectively. Based on an average oil content of 45 percent, Post expects that Indonesian PKO production will reach 3.7 MMT in MY 2014/15 and 4 MMT in MY 2015/16.

Consumption:

PKO is preferred by industrial users. Oleochemical product manufacturers are the main users of PKO, particularly in the form of refined, bleached and deodorized (RBD) PK olein and RBD PK stearin which are used to produce fatty acid, fatty alcohol and glycerol. The Indonesian oleochemical industry has grown in conjunction with the palm oil industry, and as a result, Indonesia consumes a large share of its domestic production. Post thus expects Industrial PKO consumption to continue to grow to 1.8 MMT in 2014/15 and 1.9 MMT 2015/16 for a total of 2.11 MMT in 2014/15 and 2.22 MMT 2015/16 total consumption.

Trade:

Indonesia exports approximately half of its PKO production. 2013/14 exports are set at 1.443 MMT, based on trade data. 2014/15 and 2015/16 are expected at 1.6 and 1.7 MMT, respectively, based on the continued growth of PKO production.

Stocks:

PKO ending stocks are expected to increase due to strong domestic production. Post expects ending stocks will increase from 551,000 MT in MY 2014/15 ton 631,000 MT in 2015/16.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistic

Oil, Palm Kernel

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

7,980

7,997

8,630

8,620

0

9,120

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4440

0.4377

0.4380

0.4303

0.0000

0.4386

Beginning Stocks

293

293

321

512

0

551

Production

3,543

3,500

3,780

3,709

0

4,000

MY Imports

0

42

0

40

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,836

3,835

4,101

4,261

0

4,551

MY Exports

1,444

1,443

1,650

1,600

0

1,700

MY Exp. to EU

550

176

550

180

0

180

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1,806

1,600

1,850

1,800

0

1,900

Food Use Dom. Cons.

265

280

300

310

0

320

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,071

1,880

2,150

2,110

0

2,220

Ending Stocks

321

512

301

551

0

631

Total Distribution

3,836

3,835

4,101

4,261

0

4,551

CY Imports

1

327

0

300

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1,700

1,644

1,750

1,700

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0