Production:

Palm kernel meal (PKM) production is correlated directly to palm kernel production. Indonesia will crush 8.6 MMT of palm kernel in MY 2014/15 and 9.1 MMT in MY 2015/16. As a result, Post expects production of PKM will reach 4.6 MMT in MY 2014/15 and 4.9 MMT in 2015/16.

Consumption:

Post expects domestic PKM consumption to grow from 600,000 MT in MY 2014/15 to 650,000 MT in next marketing year. Domestic consumption of PKM in Indonesia is relatively small and limited to ruminant feed use for the dairy industry. Consumption growth may taper off if the Indonesian beef herd continues to stagnate.

Trade:

Limited domestic consumption results in large supplies available for exports. PKM exports accounted for about 90 percent of total PKM production in MY 2014/15. Export of PKM is expected to increase from 4.1 MMT in MY 2014/15 to 4.4 MMT in MY 2015/16.

Stocks:

Ending stocks of PKM are expected to decline to 183 thousand MT in MY 2014/15 and 33 thousand MT in 2015/16. This number may increase if Indonesian beef production stagnates or declines.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistic

Meal, Palm Kernel

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

7,980

7,997

8,630

8,620

0

9,120

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.5382

0.5352

0.4983

0.5336

0.0000

0.5373

Beginning Stocks

90

90

116

283

0

183

Production

4,295

4,280

4,300

4,600

0

4,900

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4,385

4,370

4,416

4,883

0

5,083

MY Exports

3,668

3,667

3,850

4,100

0

4,400

MY Exp. to EU

1,580

1,324

1,600

1,368

0

1,440

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

601

420

500

600

0

650

Total Dom. Cons.

601

420

500

600

0

650

Ending Stocks

116

283

66

183

0

33

Total Distribution

4,385

4,370

4,416

4,883

0

5,083

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

3,575

3,568

3,700

3,700

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

214

149

178

213

0

231

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0