Production:

The Jokowi administration has continued its predecessor's policy of self-sufficiency for several agricultural commodities, including soybean. Post does not expect this policy will lead to increased production of soybean, as farmers continue to prefer planting corn and rice. Additionally, comments from within the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that initial self-sufficiency goals are more focused on rice than soybean, likely because rice self-sufficiency is more easily attainable. Post also does not expect a large shift of planted acres to soy, as it would imply decreasing production of other priority crops such as corn and rice.

Ideal production conditions resulted in slightly higher Indonesian soybean production in 2013/14. Post therefore maintains the slightly high production level of 675 thousand MT. Post travel throughout Java confirmed that dry weather in November and December 2014 delayed planting until January. As a result, Post expects the first harvest of 2015 to occur in late March/April. Post production estimates for 2014/15 and 2015/16 remain stable at 620 thousand MT.

Consumption:

Indonesian soybean consumption is focused on human users, especially the tempeh and tofu industry. As the staple protein source for Indonesians, soybean consumption is expected to continue to rise with population growth. Additionally, the weakening of the Rupiah vis-à-vis the dollar will also encourage soybean consumption, given its price competitiveness compared to alternate protein sources. This is supported by ample global soybean supplies leading to lower prices. As a result, consumption is expected to reach 2.78 MMT in 2014/15 and 2.89 in 2015/16.

Trade:

2013/14 soybean imports leaped ahead in response to low global prices and ample supplies. Faced with imports growing faster than consumption, Indonesia rolled over larger stocks in 2013/14, resulting in slightly diminished imports in 2014/15. Post expects that imports will remain moderate, given larger stocks. Thus, 2014/15 imports are slightly lower at 2.1 MMT, while 2015/16 imports are set at 2.2 MMT. Post will continue to review this estimate, as sustained low prices could lead to additional imports.

Stocks:

Indonesian soybean stocks grew in 2013/14 following low prices and imports that outpaced consumption growth. Post expects that stocks will slowly be drawn down, although this may be delayed if soybean prices remain low, spurring imports at a faster pace than consumption. Given this scenario, Post sets 2014/15 stocks at 165 thousand MT and 2015/16 at 95 thousand MT.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistic

Oilseed, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 13

Oct 14

Oct 15

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

450

550

450

550

0

550

Area Harvested

450

450

450

450

0

450

Beginning Stocks

15

15

55

225

0

165

Production

650

675

620

620

0

620

MY Imports

2,241

2,240

2,350

2,100

0

2,200

MY Imp. from U.S.

1,725

1,850

1,825

1,825

0

1,825

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,906

2,930

3,025

2,945

0

2,985

MY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,820

2,645

2,900

2,750

0

2,860

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

30

59

30

30

0

30

Total Dom. Cons.

2,850

2,704

2,930

2,780

0

2,890

Ending Stocks

55

225

95

165

0

95

Total Distribution

2,906

2,930

3,025

2,945

0

2,985

CY Imports

2,150

1,800

2,200

1,825

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

1,750

1,650

1,850

1,610

0

0

CY Exports

1

2

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0