Production:

Coconut production determines the availability of copra in Indonesia. Approximately 98 percent of Indonesian coconut plantations are farmed by smallholders using low-intensity management practices. As a result, Indonesian coconut production has been stagnant in recent years.

There is no large-scale replanting program to replace old crops (above 60 years old) and the proportion of non-peak production coconut plantations is increasing. This trend is not expected to change in the short term, as GOI priorities are focused on improving other crops such as rice, corn, soy and sugar. Given stagnating planting area, declining productivity, and National Statistic Agency (BPS) data indicating that area planted increased only 5600 hectares in 2014, Post expects copra production to reach 1.6 MMT in MY 2014/15 and to remain at that level in 2015/16. This trend is further supported by the fact that copra production is less profitable than sales of fresh coconut and palm sugar.

Consumption:

The Indonesian copra sector uses 45 to 47 percent of total national coconut production. Palm sugar and fresh-in-shell coconut are the major non-copra uses of coconuts. Fresh-in-shell coconuts are usually further processed into coconut milk and shredded coconut. Strong coconut demand for non-copra users is mostly found on Java while copra demand is concentrated on other Indonesian Islands. Around 97 percent of total annual copra is processed into crude coconut oil (CNO). Post expects copra production will reach 1.565 MMT in MY 2014/15 and 1.58 MMT in MY 2015/16.

Trade:

2013/14 exports are revised up to 47 thousand MT, based on final trade data. Stagnant production implies that exports are expected to remain stable at 25 thousand MMT in 2014/15 and 2015/16.

Stock:

Ending stocks are adjusted downward to 1000 MT for 2013/14, reflecting higher than anticipated exports. MY 2014/15 and 2015/16 stocks are lowered to 11000 and 6000 MT, respectively, reflecting expected stagnant production, stable exports, and low beginning stocks.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistic

Oilseed, Copra

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

3,800

3,800

3,800

3,800

0

3,800

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

18

18

12

1

0

11

Production

1,580

1,580

1,580

1,600

0

1,600

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,598

1,598

1,592

1,601

0

1,611

MY Exports

20

47

20

25

0

25

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1,562

1,550

1,558

1,565

0

1,580

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

4

0

4

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,566

1,550

1,562

1,565

0

1,580

Ending Stocks

12

1

10

11

0

6

Total Distribution

1,598

1,598

1,592

1,601

0

1,611

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

20

29

20

67

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0