Production:

Copra milling defines production levels for Indonesia coconut oil (CNO). Post expects 1.6 MMT of copra in MY 2014/15 and MY 2015/16. Copra production suggests that Indonesia will produce 975 MT of CNO in MY 2014/15 and MY 2015/16.

Consumption:

2013/14 CNO industrial consumption was revised lower to 125 thousand MT following higher than expected exports. 2014/15 and 2015/16 industrial consumption is expected to remain slightly higher due to biofuels demand. As a result, post sets 2014/15 and 2015/16 industrial consumption at 200 thousand MT. Post notes that biofuel demand is limited due to low petroleum prices and that offtake of CNO is dependent on its price competitiveness with PKO.

CNO is not used as extensively for food uses compared to industrial uses. This is primarily due to food manufacturer's preference for low cost alternatives like CPO to produce cooking oil, margarine and shortening. Despite the higher cost of CNO, Industrial users are willing to use it as they can process CNO into higher value added oleo products.

Trade:

CNO is a lauric oil that competes with PKO in the world market. In recent years, ample supplies of cheap PKO have supplied manufacturers of soaps, fatty acid and other oleo products in the place of CNO. CNO exports reached higher than expected levels, growing to 777 thousand MT in 2013/14. 2014/15 and 2015/16 exports are expected to reach 650,000 MT, assuming average performance.

Stocks:

2013/14 ending stocks are revised down to 28 thousand MT based on higher than expected exports. Ending stocks in 2014/15 and 2015/16 are expected to remain at this level due to increased domestic use and stagnant CNO production.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistic

Oil, Coconut

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1,562

1,560

1,558

1,565

0

1,580

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.6242

0.6250

0.6239

0.6230

0.0000

0.6171

Beginning Stocks

80

80

42

28

0

28

Production

975

975

972

975

0

975

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,055

1,055

1,014

1,003

0

1,003

MY Exports

777

777

700

650

0

650

MY Exp. to EU

100

100

100

202

0

200

Industrial Dom. Cons.

133

125

175

200

0

200

Food Use Dom. Cons.

103

125

100

125

0

125

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

236

250

275

325

0

325

Ending Stocks

42

28

39

28

0

28

Total Distribution

1,055

1,055

1,014

1,003

0

1,003

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0