Production:

Barley production for MY13/14 is scaled back to 1.7 million metric tons, down roughly 300,000 metric tons from the official USDA estimate. This revision was based on post's tabulation of production statistics reported at the regional level. MY14/15 production is estimated at 2.0 million metric tons, largely unchanged from the official USDA estimate. Year-over-year growth between MY13/14 and MY14/15 is largely attributed to increases in malt barley plantings (vice food barley) to meet the demand of the growing beer industry. Production for MY15/16 is currently forecast to hold steady at 2.0 million metric tons, but possibly could go slightly higher if more farmers switch from other crops to malt barley in response to growing demand from newly-opened breweries.

There are two types of barley in Ethiopia: food barley for human consumption and malt barley. Malt barley is mainly used for beer production and its share of overall production is relatively low, but growing, at 15 percent. The government is keen to boost production of malt barley in an attempt to build the Ethiopia beer industry, much of which is owned by foreign beer companies. To enhance production, the GOE along with the locally-based breweries have invested in research and scaling up of new technologies.

Consumption:

Taking into account the revised production figure for MY13/14, consumption for the same period has been lowered to 1.7 million metric tons, down roughly 300,000 metric tons from the official USDA estimate. MY14/15 consumption estimate is expected to hold relatively steady at 2.1 million metric tons. The year-over-year growth in consumption is due to increased beer production. For MY15/16, production is expected to remain at 2.1 million metric tons, but possibly could go slightly higher if more farmers switch from other crops to malt barley in response to growing demand from the growing brewery industry.

Malt barley is the major raw ingredient used in beer production and, according to industry estimates, accounts for about 90 percent of the total raw material cost. There are two newly-opened beer factories and two more that are at the final stages of construction. These new and soon-to-be opened operations are driving greater demand for malt barley. The state-owned Asella Malt Factory (AMF) and the Gonder Malt Factory are currently the only two commercial malt processors in the country.

Barley is a staple food grain, especially in the highlands of Ethiopia. It is used for food (e.g. bread), beverages (e.g. local beer), livestock feed, and the grain stocks are used for thatched roofing in parts of the country. Roasted barley is a popular snack food. In light of its wide range of uses, barley is considered as the 'king of grains' in many places in Ethiopia.

Trade:

Barley imports are negligible and exports are nil.

Stocks:

Barley stocks are trimmed back slightly for both MY13/14 and MY14/15 due to rising demand. Stocks for MY15/16 are likewise scaled back for the same reason. Most of the barley stocks are malt barley. For 2014/15, malt factories held an estimated 40 percent, or 86,000 metric tons, of the total barley stocks in the country. The remainder is held by farmers and traders.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics

Barley

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Ethiopia

USDA Official

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USDA Official

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USDA Official

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Area Harvested

1,206

1,020

1,250

1,198

0

1,200

Beginning Stocks

193

193

271

222

0

215

Production

2,053

1,685

2,100

2,034

0

2,040

MY Imports

25

14

10

14

0

14

TY Imports

25

0

10

0

0

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,271

1,892

2,381

2,270

0

2,269

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

200

155

200

155

0

180

FSI Consumption

1,800

1,515

1,900

1,900

0

1,930

Total Consumption

2,000

1,670

2,100

2,055

0

2,110

Ending Stocks

271

222

281

215

0

159

Total Distribution

2,271

1,892

2,381

2,270

0

2,269

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA