Production:

Colombian wheat production is expected to decline to 15,000 MT in MY 2014/2015. Domestic wheat production is primarily destined for wet milling and human consumption. Reports from the wheat milling industry indicate a general lack of supply of locally produced wheat. Wheat production is forecast to remain unchanged for MY 2015/2016 at 15,000 MT.

Consumption:

Wheat consumption will likely remain unchanged. Per capita wheat consumption is approximately 65 pounds. Wheat product destination and distribution patterns for the different sectors are as follows: bread (75%), pasta (15%) and the cookies and pastry industry (10%). The cookies and pastry sector has seen the most dynamic growth because of the Colombian snacks and confectionary industry expanding exports to the United States and Central America.

Trade:

U.S. wheat market share also recovered against Argentina; however, competition with Canada continues to be the most significant challenge to U.S. wheat. The Colombia-Canada Free Trade Agreement was signed a year before the CTPA. This free trade "head-start" provided Canadian exporters an opportunity to strengthen trade relationships with Colombian millers at the expense of U.S. wheat. As well, industry sources indicate that the homogeneous quality of Canadian wheat is better suited to Colombian milling practices. In CY 2014, U.S. wheat captured about 40 percent of the Colombian import market share against Argentina and to a much lesser extent Paraguay and Uruguay.

Logistics issues can be significantly challenged as a result of fluctuations in imports and stocks. For instance, in MY 2012/13 there were delays in Canadian wheat exports due to weather and total Colombian wheat imports fell as a result. Industry, then, had to draw down stocks to meet production needs. In MY 2013/14, there was a surge in wheat imports as result of better Canadian weather and the Colombian milling industry was able to recover inventories.

Colombian ports offloaded 8 million MT of grains in CY 2014, 7 percent higher than the year before. Corn represented about 51 percent of the total agricultural volume of grain imports. The Pacific coast port of Buenaventura was the most active port in Colombia for agricultural commodities. Logistics for handling import cargo continues to be a major issue in Colombia given that the growth in trade is not followed up by increased storage capacity at ports or improved inland transportation infrastructure. In CY 2014, Colombian ports were burdened with significant logistical challenges due to the first come/first serve mechanism that became a race to fill the U.S. corn TRQ. Importers had to cover the significant costs of delays at ports to offload vessels and move cargo inland as port storage facilities hit capacity. The GOC is investing in improving roads and private companies are investing in expanding port storage capacity to better manage cargo logistics and reduce overall costs of trade.

Stocks:

The feed and wheat milling industries maintain limited carry-over inventories of corn and wheat given the high cost of stocks due to deficient storage capacity throughout Colombia. The feed and milling industries are estimated to maintain about a two-month inventory supply to manage operations, although overall, stocks have been gradually growing in recent years.

Policy:

The Colombian wheat milling industry is almost entirely supplied through imports. Implementation of trade agreements with Canada and the United States have established favorable trade conditions with duty free imports up to specified quotas.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Wheat Colombia

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Jul 2012

Market Year Begin: May 2013

Market Year Begin: Jul 2014

USDA Official

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USDA Official

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USDA Official

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Area Harvested

10

10

8

8

8

Beginning Stocks

403

403

595

401

346

Production

18

18

15

15

15

MY Imports

1,500

1,500

1,550

1,475

1,485

TY Imports

1,500

1,500

1,550

1,475

1,485

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

767

0

750

750

Total Supply

1,921

1,921

2,160

1,891

1,846

MY Exports

5

5

15

15

15

TY Exports

5

5

15

15

15

Feed and Residual

90

125

60

100

100

FSI Consumption

1,425

1,425

1,565

1,430

1,450

Total Consumption

1,515

1,515

1,625

1,530

1,550

Ending Stocks

401

401

520

346

281

Total Distribution

1,921

1,921

2,160

1,891

1,846

Yield

2.

2

2.

2

2