Production

Post forecasts that South Africa will crush a record 1.8 million tons of oilseeds in the 2015/16 MY, mainly due to an expected 34 percent increase in soybean production to meet the expansion in crushing capacity. In the 2013/14 MY, South Africa crushed a record of 1.7 million tons of oilseeds, on a record production of 1.9 million tons of oilseeds. Due to the current drought conditions post estimates that oilseed crushed will drop by six percent to 1.6 million tons in the 2014/15 MY. However, oilseed meal produced in the 2014/15 MY, should be at the same level as in the 2013/14 MY i.e. 1.0 million tons as more soybean will be crushed. Crushing yields used includes 42 percent meal for sunflower seeds and 80 percent meal for soybeans.

Oilseed meal production in South Africa

Oilseeds (1,000MT)

Crushed

Meal produced

Marketing year

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Sunflower

(42% meal)

865

650

700

363

275

295

Soybean

(80% meal)

840

950

1,100

672

760

880

TOTAL

1,705

1,600

1,800

1,035

1,035

1,175

Consumption

South Africa's consumption of sunflower meal and soybean meal is currently at around 1.5 million tons per annum and is expected to grow by about three percent per year over the next two years. A weak economic outlook for South Africa is diminishing a more aggressive demand growth for animal products and as a result animal feed. The economic growth outlook for South Africa remain sluggish at less than two percent per annum in 2015 and 2016, due to inter alia electricity constraints, labor unrest, relatively lower commodity prices and a relatively weak exchange rate.

The consumption of soybean meal and sunflower meal

Oilseeds (1,000MT)

Marketing year

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Sunflower meal

400

350

350

Soybean meal

1,100

1,200

1,250

TOTAL

1,500

1,550

1,600

Trade

Post expects that South Africa will import only about 30 percent of oilseed meal consumption in the 2015/16 MY, down from the more than 70 percent ten years ago.

Imports of sunflower meal and soybean meal dropped by almost 23 percent in the 2013/14 MY to 530,000 tons, on increased local production. Almost all imports of oilseed meal were from Argentina. For the 2014/15 MY, post predicts that the imports of sunflower meal and soybean meal will increase by ten percent to 585,000 tons (490,000 tons of soybean meal and 95,000 tons of sunflower meal), due to a six percent drop in oilseeds crushed as a result of the drought conditions. In the 2015/16 MY, sunflower meal and soybean meal imports will decrease again by 15 percent to around 495,000 tons (420,000 tons of soybean meal and 75,000 tons of sunflower meal) on increased local oilseed production.

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Mar 2013

Mar 2014

Mar 2015

South Africa

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

750

840

800

950

0

1,100

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

1

1

1

1

0

1

Beginning Stocks

14

14

26

16

0

16

Production

592

672

631

760

0

880

MY Imports

600

480

550

490

0

420

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,206

1,166

1,207

1,266

0

1,316

MY Exports

50

50

50

50

0

50

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,130

1,100

1,130

1,200

0

1,250

Total Dom. Cons.

1,130

1,100

1,130

1,200

0

1,250

Ending Stocks

26

16

27

16

0

16

Total Distribution

1,206

1,166

1,207

1,266

0

1,316

1000 MT, PERCENT

Meal, Sunflower seed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Mar 2013

Mar 2014

Mar 2015

South Africa

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

800

865

800

650

0

700

Beginning Stocks

43

43

38

39

0

39

Production

340

363

340

275

0

295

MY Imports

60

50

80

95

0

75

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

443

456

458

409

0

409

MY Exports

10

17

10

20

0

20

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

395

400

412

350

0

350

Total Dom. Cons.

395

400

412

350

0

350

Ending Stocks

38

39

36

39

0

39

Total Distribution

443

456

458

409

0

409

1000 MT, PERCENT