Production

Post estimates that South Africa will produce about 464,000 tons of oilseed oil in the 2015/16 MY. This is 11 percent more than the 418,000 tons oil post estimates South Africa will produced in the 2014/15 MY. In the 2013/14 MY, South Africa produced a record 480,000 tons of oilseed oils, 35 percent higher than in the 2012/13 MY, due to a record local production of 1.9 million tons of oilseeds. Crushing yields used include 38 percent oil for sunflower seed and 18 percent oil for soybeans.

Oilseed oil production in South Africa

Oilseeds (1,000MT)

Crushed

Oil produce

Marketing year

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Sunflower

(38% oil)

865

650

700

329

247

266

Soybean

(18% oil)

840

950

1,100

151

171

198

TOTAL

1,705

1,600

1,800

480

418

464

Consumption

South Africa consumes about1.2 million tons of oilseed oil per annum. Post estimates that the consumption of oilseed oil will grow by only about three percent in the 2014/15 MY and by another three percent in 2015/16 MY. Economic growth is the main overall driver for the increase in the demand for oilseed oil and, as already mentioned, South Africa's economic growth is expected to remain sluggish at less than two percent growth per annum in 2015 and 2016.

The consumption of soybean oil, sunflower oil and palm oil in South Africa

Oilseeds (1,000MT)

Marketing year

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Sunflower oil

410

350

350

Soybean oil

230

270

300

Palm oil

430

460

460

Other oils

80

100

100

TOTAL

1,150

1,180

1,210

Trade

South Africa imported about 825,000 tons of vegetable oil in the 2013/14 MY, marginally more than in the previous season. Major oils imported included palm oil (435,000 tons), soybean oil (170,000 tons) and sunflower oil (135,000 tons).

For the 2014/15 MY, post expects oilseed oil imports to increase by 11 percent to 915,000 tons, due to a decreased in oilseeds crushed because of the drought. Post estimates South Africa will import about 155,000 tons of sunflower oil and 190,000 of soybean oil in the 2014/15 MY to augment local oil production. In the 2015/16 MY, oilseed oil imports should drop to about 900,000 tons, due to an increase of oilseed being crushed. Sunflower oil imports are expected to drop to about 140,000 tons, while soybean oil imports should be on the same level at 190,000 tons.

South Africa also exports oilseed oils to neighboring countries such as Zimbabwe and Mozambique. In the 2013/14 MY, South Africa exported almost 155,000 tons of oilseed oil, including 55,000 tons of sunflower seed oil, 90,000 tons of soybean oil and 8,000 tons of palm oil. These exports are expected to continue at the same levels in the 2014/15 MY and 2015/16 MY.

Oil, Sunflower seed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Mar 2013

Mar 2014

Mar 2015

South Africa

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

800

865

800

650

0

700

Beginning Stocks

51

51

46

50

0

47

Production

335

329

335

247

0

266

MY Imports

100

135

100

155

0

140

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

486

515

481

452

0

453

MY Exports

40

55

40

55

0

55

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

400

410

400

350

0

350

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

400

410

400

350

0

350

Ending Stocks

46

50

41

47

0

48

Total Distribution

486

515

481

452

0

453

1000 MT, PERCENT

Oil, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Mar 2013

Mar 2014

Mar 2015

South Africa

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

750

840

800

950

0

1,100

Beginning Stocks

24

24

9

25

0

26

Production

137

151

146

171

0

198

MY Imports

195

170

210

190

0

190

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

100

170

130

190

0

0

Total Supply

356

345

365

386

0

414

MY Exports

90

90

98

90

0

90

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

257

230

256

270

0

300

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

257

230

256

270

0

300

Ending Stocks

9

25

11

26

0

24

Total Distribution

356

345

365

386

0

414

1000 MT, PERCENT