Oilseed, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

469

471

602

560

600

Beginning Stocks

233

233

221

231

251

Production

1,229

1,230

1,715

1,700

1,710

MY Imports

12,985

12,985

12,750

12,540

12,600

Total Supply

14,447

14,448

14,686

14,471

14,561

MY Exports

55

57

70

50

50

Crush

13,591

13,200

13,600

13,150

13,250

Food Use Dom. Cons.

130

160

130

170

170

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

450

800

550

850

850

Total Dom. Cons.

14,171

14,160

14,280

14,170

14,270

Ending Stocks

221

231

336

251

241

Total Distribution

14,447

14,448

14,686

14,471

14,561

1000 HA, 1000 MT

In the EU-28, imports account for around 90 percent of total soybean supply. The bulk of imports are genetically engineered soybeans used in the feed sector. Most of them are crushed and used as meal. In some countries such as Hungary, Croatia and to a lesser extent Austria, full soybeans are used as feed after heat treatment. Domestic production is non-biotech. Between 10 and 15 percent of it is directed to the food market, the rest is used as feed.

Soybean production remains limited but it is expected to increase in the coming years due to a rise in total area. It could account for five percent of total oilseed production in 2015/16. The planted area is expected to increase in Italy, France, Romania and Austria for several reasons:

(a) Soy is more profitable than corn at the moment. The price of corn has collapsed and production costs are higher for corn because it needs more inputs than soy.

(b) The 2014-2020 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) gives incentives to produce soybeans and protein crops. Under the CAP, France and Romania have chosen to give farmers coupled supports for soybeans. In France the level of support will be between 100 and 200 euros per hectare (depending on the total area in the country) from MY 2014/15. In Romania, it will be 325 euros per hectare from MY 2015/16.

(c) Several countries are taking initiatives to produce non-biotech protein feed locally, in order to answer the demand for non-biotech feedstocks. The "Danube Soya Association," a non-governmental association supported by the Austrian government, promotes the production of non-biotech soybeans in the Danube region (Austria, Germany, Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and Switzerland). The countries of this region account for around one third of total EU production.

As for imports, the impact of increasing domestic production could be offset by the rising demand for feed. Brazil is still the main exporter of soybeans to the EU but its market share, which was higher than 60 percent in the 2000's, has been between 40 and 50 percent in the 2010's due to an increase in imports from Paraguay and Canada. The U.S. market share is on a flat trend on the long run, it varies between 20 and 30 percent.

MY 2015/16

In MY 2015/16, EU-28 soybean production is expected to increase slightly compared to MY 2014/15. Production could increase in Italy (which accounts for half of the European production), France, Romania and Bulgaria due to a rise in planted areas. It could decrease in the other producing countries due to lower yields.

Crush is expected to increase slightly in MY 2015/16 due to ample world supplies, a rise in feed demand and competitive prices. As a consequence, EU-28 soybean imports are expected to increase slightly too.

MY 2014/15

In MY 2014/15, soybean production is expected to increase by 38 percent compared to MY 2013/14 due to an increase of around 20 percent in total area and to a rise in yields. A slight decrease in crush is expected. The only countries where crush is decreasing are Spain and Portugal, but they account for more than 30 percent of total EU crush. As a consequence of higher production and lower crush, soybean imports are expected to decrease slightly.

Soybean Meal

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

13,591

13,200

13,600

13,150

13,250

Beginning Stocks

153

153

260

286

514

Production

10,737

10,300

10,750

10,250

10,300

MY Imports

18,175

18,175

19,300

18,800

19,600

Total Supply

29,065

28,628

30,310

29,336

30,414

MY Exports

310

300

390

380

370

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom. Cons.

32

32

32

32

32

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

28,453

28,000

29,400

28,400

29,100

Total Dom. Cons.

28,495

28,042

29,442

28,442

29,142

Ending Stocks

260

286

478

514

902

Total Distribution

29,065

28,628

30,310

29,336

30,414

1000 MT

The EU imports around 65 percent of the soybean meal it consumes. The rest is produced by domestic crushing facilities, which use more than 90 percent of imported soybeans.

Soybean meal is the main meal used in animal feed rations in the EU, it accounts for 58 percent of the total consumption of oilseed meals. The largest consumers of soybean meal are the leading producers of livestock and poultry. In the coming years, the demand for soybean meal is anticipated to be favored by ample world supply and a rise in poultry production. Poultry is the animal category that consumes the largest share of soybean meal and substitution of soybean meal with other meals is difficult in this sector.

EU-28 imports of soybean meal have decreased in 2012/13 and 2013/14 compared to the three previous years due to high prices. They are expected to increase again in the coming years due to the growth of the poultry sector and to ample global supply. More than 80 percent of soybean meal imports come from Brazil and Argentina. The U.S. is the third supplier to the EU.

MY 2015/16

The long-term rising consumer demand for poultry meat is expected to favor a higher use of soybean meal in animal feed. In MY 2015/16, stronger demand could trigger supply, with a slight increase in both production and imports, favored by ample global supply and low prices.

MY 2014/15

Total EU imports of soybean meal are expected to increase slightly between MY 2013/14 and MY 2014/15, driven by the demand from feed compounders. Although the incorporation rate of soybean in feed rations should remain low due to low cereal prices, total feed consumption should rise due to the growth of the poultry and dairy sectors. Most of the increase in imports comes from Spain, whereas imports are expected to decrease in the two main importing countries (the Benelux and France).

Soybean Oil

Oil, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

13,591

13,200

13,600

13,150

13,250

Beginning Stocks

221

221

377

235

285

Production

2,582

2,400

2,584

2,350

2,400

MY Imports

325

325

300

300

300

Total Supply

3,128

2,946

3,261

2,885

2,985

MY Exports

771

771

800

750

750

Industrial Dom. Cons.

910

900

1,000

810

820

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,000

990

1,000

990

990

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

70

50

70

50

50

Total Dom. Cons.

1,980

1,940

2,070

1,850

1,860

Ending Stocks

377

235

391

285

375

Total Distribution

3,128

2,946

3,261

2,885

2,985

1000 MT

Until 2010/11, the EU-28 was a net importer of soybean oil, mainly used to produce biodiesel. Since MY 2011/12, the EU-28 has become a net exporter of soybean oil, with exports more than twice as high as imports. As a result of the implementation of the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED), soybean oil has become more difficult to use as a feedstock for the biodiesel industry. As a consequence:

(a) The EU has imported more biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia and less soybean oil and palm oil from these countries.

(b) Soybean oil produced domestically by crushing imported beans has been exported. Most of the soybean oil produced in the EU is exported to Africa. Since 2012/13, North African countries have accounted for more than 50 percent of EU exports.

MY 2015/16

The EU production of soybean oil is expected to increase slightly due to an increase in crush. Food and feed use are likely to remain stable. Imports are anticipated to remain at low levels compared to exports. As a consequence, the EU would remain a net exporter of soybean oil.

MY 2014/15

In MY 2014/15, the EU demand for soybean oil is expected to decrease slightly, mainly due to decreasing demand in the biofuel sector and stable food use. Exports are anticipated to remain high, although not at the record level of MY 2012/13. Production could slightly decrease as a result of stagnant crush. Imports are expected to remain at low levels.

Breakout of EU-28 Industrial Uses for Soybean Oil in 1000 MT

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16

Biofuels Use

150

160

160

Other Industrial Uses

750

650

660

Total Industrial Use

900

810

820