Oilseed, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Planted

6,760

6,800

6,775

6,800

0

6,600

Area Harvested

6,751

6,709

6,774

6,738

0

6,600

Beginning Stocks

2,573

2,573

1,973

1,896

0

2,446

Production

21,102

20,975

24,077

24,100

0

21,300

MY Imports

3,495

3,495

2,940

2,500

0

2,600

MY Imp. from U.S.

7

7

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

27,170

27,043

28,990

28,496

0

26,346

MY Exports

290

290

530

600

0

300

Crush

23,937

23,937

24,700

24,500

0

23,800

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

970

920

1,127

950

0

950

Total Dom. Cons.

24,907

24,857

25,827

25,450

0

24,750

Ending Stocks

1,973

1,896

2,633

2,446

0

1,296

Total Distribution

27,170

27,043

28,990

28,496

0

26,346

1000 HA, 1000 MT

The EU is the world's largest producer of rapeseed and products. The two largest producers of rapeseed in the EU are Germany and France, followed by the U.K., Poland, and the Czech Republic. Rapeseed meal is used in the livestock sector as the EU is a leading producer and exporter of meat and dairy products. Main driver for the demand of rapeseed oil is the biodiesel industry, but food and industrial use of rapeseed oil are also influencing demand.

Europe's demand for rapeseed exceeds its domestic supply which leads to the import of rapeseed for crushing. Ukraine and Australia remain the only major suppliers for Europe since Canada produces genetically engineered rapeseed.

MY 2015/16

European farmers planted less rapeseed in MY 2015/16 and the EU acreage is expected to drop by nearly 3 percent to 6.6 Million ha. Several factors influenced the planting decisions of European farmers. First, farmers interpreted changes in the EU biofuel policy as weaker demand with lower prices for the upcoming crop which will lead to poorer margins compared to other crops. Farmers also shifted away from seeding rapeseed due to changes to EU subsidy rules which encourage growers to diversify crops. Additionally, farmers had to handle the neonicotinoid ban for insecticides which causes higher risks due to pest.

The lower rapeseed area is mainly due to decreases in Germany, the United Kingdom, and to a lesser extent in Slovakia, France, Poland, Hungary. Bulgaria, and Austria. There were just a few countries with higher acreage like Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, and the Czech Republic.

In general, growing conditions for rapeseed in Europe have been good and there are nearly no problems with winterkill due the mild winter. However this might increase insect infestation and disease pressure. Yield is expected to drop from record levels in 2014, but weather conditions in April and May will mainly determine the final quality and yield of the European rapeseed crop. Then, it will also become clearer how the ban on neonicotinoids has affected the crop.

Total EU-28 rapeseed production is currently forecast at 21.3 MMT in MY 2015/16, which is more than 11 percent lower than the estimate for 2014/15. There is an abundant supply of soybeans on the world market in MY 2015/16. With crushers preferring soybeans over rapeseed due to the protein/oil content, as well as crush margins, rapeseed crush is estimated to decrease. It is expected that rapeseed stocks will partly offset the decrease in rapeseed production. Imports are expected to increase just slightly since supplies on the world market are also projected low. Especially, the export potential of the Ukraine remains below average. In total, the European rapeseed market is expected to return from its records numbers in MY 2014/15 to a more average year in terms of production and crushing. Endings stocks are expected to be much lower at the end of the marketing year.

MY 2014/15

Preliminary final data shows a record EU production for rapeseed. The record production is expected to lead to lower imports from both major suppliers, Australia and Ukraine. The high availability of rapeseed on the European market and price competiveness will lead to increased exports to Turkey, Israel, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates. Especially shipments to the United Arab Emirates skyrocketed in the first half of the MY 14/15. Due to the ample supply European rapeseed crush is expected to reach a record level. Ending stocks are expected to increase.

Rapeseed Meal

Meal, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

23,937

23,937

24,700

24,500

0

23,800

Beginning Stocks

89

89

199

115

0

245

Production

13,764

13,500

14,203

13,800

0

13,400

MY Imports

457

457

440

450

0

450

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

14,310

14,046

14,842

14,365

0

14,095

MY Exports

361

361

350

420

0

300

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

13,750

13,570

14,250

13,700

0

13,650

Total Dom. Cons.

13,750

13,570

14,250

13,700

0

13,650

Ending Stocks

199

115

242

245

0

145

Total Distribution

14,310

14,046

14,842

14,365

0

14,095

1000 MT, PERCENT

Rapeseed meal production is projected to follow crush in in MY 2015/16. It is expected that lower production will lead to a replacement of rapeseed seed meal in feed by soymeal and grains to some extent. Due to lower availability of rapeseed meal on the domestic market exports are expected to decrease. This will also affect exports of rapeseed meal to the United States which have sharply increased lately. Stocks are also projected to decline. Domestic consumption of rapeseed meal is expected to decrease just slightly. Demand for rapeseed meal continues to be strong which is mainly driven by the expanding European dairy sector. The popularity of rapeseed meal for animal feed varies among EU countries. Its use is most prevalent in countries that have a long rapeseed crushing history and high dairy production, like Germany, France, the Benelux and the UK.

Rapeseed Oil

Oil, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

23,937

23,937

24,700

24,500

0

23,800

Beginning Stocks

32

32

281

222

0

362

Production

9,934

10,000

10,251

10,200

0

9,900

MY Imports

296

296

270

240

0

240

MY Imp. from U.S.

2

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

10,262

10,328

10,802

10,662

0

10,502

MY Exports

306

306

330

300

0

300

Industrial Dom. Cons.

7,450

6,950

7,675

7,050

0

6,950

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,210

2,800

2,450

2,900

0

2,900

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

15

50

22

50

0

50

Total Dom. Cons.

9,675

9,800

10,147

10,000

0

9,900

Ending Stocks

281

222

325

362

0

302

Total Distribution

10,262

10,328

10,802

10,662

0

10,502

1000 MT, PERCENT

Biofuel production is the major use of rapeseed oil in the EU-28 and an important market driver. With the changing EU biofuels policy, the use of rapeseed oil for biodiesel is expected to decrease in MY 2015/16. Food use of rapeseed oil is expected to increase. In total, there is a general oversupply of rapeseed oil on the European market due to stronger competition with animal fats and recycled oils.

Breakout of EU-28 Industrial Uses for Rapeseed Oil in 1000 MT

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16

Biofuels Use

750

850

850

Other Industrial Uses

6,200

6,200

6,100

Total Industrial Use

6,950

7,050

6,950