Korea. Wheat Annual. Apr 2015 May 11, 2015
Production:
MY 2015/16 wheat production is forecast to decline to 24,900 tons, down 6 percent from the current marketing year's estimate due to decreased planting area. The upland direct payment program doesn't increase wheat planting area because wheat requires a longer growing period compared to other winter crops such as barley and forage crops, hindering timely rice transplantation as a double crop after wheat cultivation. The Korean government has made upland direct payment of 400,000 Korean Won (US$380) per hectare to farmers who have grown winter crops in their paddy fields since 2014.
Korea: Wheat Production | |||
Crop Year | Harvested Area(Hectare) | Yield(MT/HA) | Production(MT) |
2006 | 1,738 | 3.34 | 5,810 |
2007 | 1,928 | 3.81 | 7,624 |
2008 | 2,549 | 4.06 | 10,359 |
2009 | 5,067 | 5.15 | 26,087 |
2010 | 12,548 | 3.12 | 39,116 |
2011 | 13,044 | 3.35 | 43,677 |
2012 | 9,467 | 3.91 | 37,014 |
2013 | 7,373 | 3.68 | 27,130 |
2014 a/ | 7,180 | 3.70 | 26,500 |
2015 a/ | 7,000 | 3.55 | 24,900 |
Source: Ministry for Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA), Statistics Korea (KOSTAT)
a/ FAS/Seoul forecast; yield is based on five year average.
Consumption:
MY 2015/16 wheat consumption is forecast at 3.84 million tons, an increase of nearly 120,000 tons from the current marketing year due to an anticipated increase of available supply of competitively-priced feed wheat, as milling wheat consumption remains stable.
MY 2015/16 milling wheat consumption, including flour and pasta trade on a wheat basis, is forecast at 2.34 million tons, a slight increase from the current marketing year.
In MY 2014/15, total wheat consumption is expected to stay around 3.72 million tons, down 13 percent from the previous year mainly due to lower demand for imported feed grade wheat which has been less competitive than corn. Milling wheat consumption is expected to be 2.32 million tons, which includes imports of flour and pasta, almost the same as the previous year.
Korea: Monthly Wheat Use (1,000 MT) | ||||
Month | Feed Wheat | Milling Wheat a/ | ||
MY 2013/14 | MY 2014/15 | MY 2013/14 | MY 2014/15 | |
July | 235 | 129 | 176 | 183 |
August | 219 | 121 | 173 | 174 |
September | 226 | 126 | 156 | 166 |
October | 245 | 134 | 185 | 179 |
November | 205 | 130 | 180 | 172 |
December | 159 | 143 | 180 | 186 |
January | 125 | 115 | 184 | 194 |
February | 100 | 103 | 161 | 152 |
Sub Total | 1,541 | 1,001 | 1,395 | 1,406 |
March | 101 | na | 176 | na |
April | 100 | na | 180 | na |
May | 108 | na | 177 | na |
June | 114 | na | 175 | na |
Total | 1,936 | na | 2,102 | na |
Source: KFA and KOFMIA
a/ includes wheat flour exports, but excludes the portion used in soy-sauce production
Korea: Post Estimates of Domestic Wheat Use (1,000 MT, July/June) | ||||
Year | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15c/ | 2015/16c/ |
Imported Milling Wheat 1/ | 2,193 | 2,132 | 2,130 | 2,150 |
Imported Milling Wheat 2/ | 167 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
Flour Imports a/ | 39 | 33 | 35 | 35 |
Flour Exports a/ | 62 | 63 | 65 | 65 |
Pasta Imports a/ | 135 | 150 | 150 | 155 |
Pasta Exports a/ | 130 | 140 | 130 | 140 |
Local Wheat | 37 | 27 | 27 | 25 |
FSI Consumptionb/ | 2,379 | 2,319 | 2,327 | 2,340 |
Feed Wheat | 2,818 | 1,936 | 1,400 | 1,500 |
Total Consumptionb/ | 5,197 | 4,255 | 3,727 | 3,840 |
Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA), Korea Flour Millers Industry Association (KOFMIA) and Korea Customs Service (KCS)
a/ Wheat basis
b/ include local wheat, flour imports and pasta imports but exclude flour exports and pasta exports
c/ FAS/Seoul forecast
1/ KOFMIA members
2/ non- KOFMIA member
Korea: Wheat Flour Utilization (1,000 MT) | ||||||
Calendar Year | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
Total Consumption 1/ | 1,615 | 1,610 | 1,634 | 1,672 | 1,575 | 1,695 |
Per Capita (Kg/Year) 2/ | 31.4 | 32.6 | 32.8 | 33.4 | 31.4 | 33.6 |
Source: Korea Flour Mills Industrial Association (KOFMIA)
1/ based on flour millers' sales including exports, imports and animal feed purposes, but wheat flour production basis excluding animal feed and exports since 2010.
2/ excludes animal feed and exports from total consumption, including imports of wheat flour.
Trade:
MY 2015/16 wheat imports are projected at 4 million tons, of which 2.5 million tons is for milling (including flour and pasta imports on a wheat equivalent basis) and 1.50 million tons for feed. The import estimate hinges to a large extent on the continued availability of feed wheat with milling wheat remaining steady.
MY 2014/15 wheat imports are expected to reach 3.9 million tons given that imports for feed wheat were lower than the previous year during the first eight months of the current marketing year and pending feed grade wheat contracts for the remaining four months. In MY 2014/15 Ukraine is the major supplier of feed grade wheat, followed by Bulgaria, Canada, the United States, Romania, France and Denmark for the first eight months. Imports of U.S. wheat in MY 2014/15 are expected to reach around 1.3 million tons, including approximately 100,000 MT of feed grade wheat.
Korea: Wheat Imports
(1,000 MT, Customs Cleared Basis)
Marketing Year (July/June) | Feed Wheat | Milling Wheat | Flour Imports 1/ | Pasta Import 1/ | Total |
05/06 | 1,536 | 2,220 | 41 | 101 | 3,898 |
06/07 | 976 | 2,298 | 69 | 108 | 3,451 |
07/08 | 565 | 2,317 | 105 | 117 | 3,104 |
08/09 | 1,151 | 2,058 | 69 | 105 | 3,383 |
09/10 | 2,164 | 2,071 | 127 | 119 | 4,481 |
10/11 | 2,075 | 2,520 | 63 | 123 | 4,781 |
11/12 | 2,868 | 2,169 | 42 | 122 | 5,201 |
12/13 | 2,820 | 2,461 | 39 | 135 | 5,455 |
13/14 | 1,948 | 2,181 | 33 | 150 | 4,312 |
14/152/ | 1,400 | 2,310 | 35 | 155 | 3,900 |
15/162/ | 1,500 | 2,300 | 40 | 160 | 4,000 |
Source: Korea Customs Service
1/ Wheat basis
2/ FAS/Seoul forecast
Korea: Monthly Wheat Imports (1,000 MT) | ||||
Month | Feed Wheat | Milling Wheat | ||
MY 2013/14 | MY 2014/15 | MY 2013/14 | MY 2014/15 | |
July | 249 | 87 | 77 | 178 |
August | 163 | 35 | 259 | 189 |
September | 198 | 149 | 91 | 182 |
October | 316 | 230 | 234 | 237 |
November | 161 | 117 | 129 | 179 |
December | 120 | 97 | 267 | 206 |
January | 130 | 143 | 129 | 212 |
February | 187 | 64 | 182 | 168 |
Sub Total | 1,524 | 922 | 1,368 | 1,551 |
March | 42 | Na | 247 | Na |
April | 125 | Na | 210 | Na |
May | 74 | Na | 165 | Na |
June | 183 | Na | 191 | Na |
Total | 1,948 | Na | 2,181 | Na |
Korea: MY 20014/15 Monthly Wheat Imports by Origin (1,000 MT, based on Customs Clearance) | ||||||
Country | U. S. | Australia | Canada | India | Other | Total |
Milling Wheat | ||||||
July 2014 | 140 | 15 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 178 |
August | 90 | 93 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 189 |
September | 72 | 77 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 182 |
October | 107 | 119 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 237 |
November | 56 | 99 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 179 |
December | 99 | 104 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 206 |
January 2015 | 144 | 49 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 212 |
February | 75 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 168 |
Total(Jul-Feb) 2014/15 | 783 | 648 | 116 | 0 | 4 | 1,551 |
Total(Jul-Feb) 2013/14 | 719 | 562 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1,367 |
Feed Wheat | ||||||
July 2014 | 47 | 0 | 30 | 5 | 5 | 87 |
August | 0 | 0 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 35 |
September | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 110a/ | 149 |
October | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230b/ | 230 |
November | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 114c/ | 117 |
December | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97d/ | 97 |
January 2015 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115e/ | 143 |
February | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61f/ | 64 |
Total(Jul-Feb) 2014/15 | 78 | 0 | 102 | 10 | 732 | 922 |
Total(Jul-Feb) 2013/14 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 249 | 1,092 | 1,524 |
Total Wheat | ||||||
July 2014 | 187 | 15 | 52 | 5 | 5 | 266 |
August | 90 | 93 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 224 |
September | 72 | 77 | 71 | 0 | 110 | 331 |
October | 107 | 119 | 11 | 0 | 230 | 467 |
November | 56 | 99 | 26 | 0 | 115 | 296 |
December | 99 | 104 | 2 | 0 | 97 | 303 |
January 2015 | 173 | 49 | 18 | 0 | 115 | 355 |
February | 78 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 232 |
Total(Jul-Feb) 2014/15 | 862 | 648 | 216 | 10 | 734 | 2,473 |
Total(Jul-Feb) 2013/14 | 719 | 562 | 270 | 249 | 1,092 | 2,892 |
Source: Korea Customs Service
a/ Romania (40,675 MT); Bulgaria (69,449 MT)
b/ Ukraine (161,836); Bulgaria (46,854); Romania (21,827)
c/ Ukraine (113,736);
d/ Ukraine (96,142); Romania (1,094)
e/ Ukraine (56,456); France (57,750)
f/ Ukraine (12,002); Denmark (49,282)
Korea: MY 2014/15 Feed Wheat Contractsby Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) (Unit: 1,000 MT, as of early January 2015) | ||
ETA | Quantity | Price (USD/MT)1/ |
Jul. 2014 | 65 | 290 |
Aug. | 130 | 289 |
Sep. | 106 | 287 |
Oct. | 194 | 268 |
Dec. | 84 | 244 |
Jan. 2015 | 118 | 241 |
Feb. | 112 | 249 |
Mar. | 55 | 250 |
Apr. | 110 | 250 |
May | 135 | 242 |
June | 145 | 234 |
Total | 1,254 |
Source: Local Grain Traders
1/ CNF on Weighted Average
Tariff
In early January 2015, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) released its adjusted tariffs and tariff rate quotas (TRQ) for CY 2015. However, the government excluded milling wheat from the list of autonomous TRQ in CY 2015. The out-of- quota duty remains fixed at 1.8 percent. Of note, the feed wheat TRQ and its corresponding duty were eliminated in 2007. The duty on U.S. wheat is zero under the KORUS FTA.
In CY 2015, the flour import tariff rate is applied at 4.2 percent of the local base rate. Under KORUS FTA, import tariffs for U.S. wheat flour (H.S. 1101.00.1000) are scheduled to phase out over a 5-year period, declining to 0.8 percent in 2015, while tariffs for meslin flour (H.S. 1101.00.2000) the mixture of rye and wheat flour, immediately fell to zero.
Korea: Wheat Import Tariff Rates for CY 2015 (Percent) | |||||
Commodity | Applied Tariff Rate | Bound Tariff Rate | |||
2014 | 2015 | 2014 | 2015 | ||
Durum Wheat, Seed | 1001.11.0000 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Durum Wheat, Other | 1001.19.0000 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Seed, Meslins | 1001.91.1000 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Seed, Other | 1001.91.9000 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Feeding, Meslins | 1001.99.1010 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Feeding, Other | 1001.99.1090 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Milling, Meslins | 1001.99.2010 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Milling, Other1/ | 1001.99.2090 | 1.8(1) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Others, Meslins | 1001.99.9010 | 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
Others, Other1/ | 1001.99.9090 | 1.8(1) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)
1/ The number in parenthesis is the in-quota tariff rate.
Flour Trade:
MY 2014/15 flour imports are expected to increase to 40,000 tons (wheat equivalent) to meet demand from small-sized restaurants and noodle manufacturers as they are loyal users of cheaper priced flour. Pasta imports are expected to be around 150,000 MT (wheat equivalent) based on imports for the first seven months of the marketing year. Annual flour exports are approximately 60,000 tons (wheat equivalent), while pasta exports remain around 130,000 MT (wheat equivalent).
Korea: Wheat Flour Imports (Metric Ton, July/June) | ||||||
Country | MY2009 | MY2010 | MY2011 | MY2012 | MY2013 | MY2014a/ |
U.S.A. | 873 | 531 | 1,025 | 1,318 | 716 | 1,056 |
Canada | 34,213 | 13,540 | 1,381 | 1,037 | 973 | 811 |
Australia | 1,252 | 528 | 223 | 395 | 658 | 2,707 |
China | 1,328 | 583 | 0 | 121 | 60 | 0 |
Turkey | 24,568 | 11,130 | 8,784 | 3,636 | 1,144 | 1,154 |
Indonesia | 7,647 | 9,956 | 7,708 | 9,616 | 8,011 | 6,108 |
Hungary | 8,893 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Others | 14,112 | 9,772 | 11,250 | 12,478 | 10,237 | 16,085 |
Total | 92,886 | 46,150 | 30,371 | 28,600 | 21,799 | 27,921 |
Wheat Basis | 127,068 | 63,133 | 41,548 | 39,125 | 29,821 | 38,195 |
Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)
a/ year round based on the first seven months (July 2014-January 2015)
Korea: Pasta Imports | ||||||
(Metric Ton, July/June) | ||||||
Country | MY2009 | MY2010 | MY2011 | MY2012 | MY2013 | MY2014a/ |
U.S.A. | 326 | 424 | 429 | 512 | 451 | 336 |
China | 64,123 | 62,024 | 61,766 | 65,716 | 73,991 | 72,555 |
Italy | 13,525 | 16,368 | 15,169 | 19,193 | 20,595 | 21,305 |
Thailand | 2,584 | 3,142 | 3,851 | 4,359 | 4,894 | 4,889 |
Indonesia | 2,102 | 2,530 | 1,593 | 2,007 | 1,994 | 2,925 |
Turkey | 2,388 | 2,507 | 3,193 | 3,630 | 4,094 | 3,597 |
Others | 2,242 | 2,960 | 3,090 | 3,466 | 3,717 | 3,809 |
Total | 87,290 | 89,955 | 89,091 | 98,883 | 109,736 | 109,416 |
Wheat Basis | 119,413 | 123,058 | 121,876 | 135,272 | 150,118 | 149,681 |
Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)
a/ year round based on the first seven months (July 2014-January 2015)
Korea: Wheat Flour Exports (Metric Ton, July/June) | ||||||
MY2009 | MY2010 | MY2011 | MY2012 | MY2013 | MY2014a/ | |
Total | 44,234 | 48,056 | 44,909 | 46,843 | 43,230 | 46,963 |
Wheat Basis | 58,979 | 64,075 | 59,879 | 62,457 | 57,640 | 62,617 |
Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)
a/ year round based on the first seven months (July 2014-January 2015)
Korea: Pasta Exports (Metric Ton, July/June) | ||||||
Country | MY2009 | MY2010 | MY2011 | MY2012 | MY2013 | MY2014a/ |
USA | 18,000 | 19,189 | 20,365 | 23,694 | 23,979 | 21,375 |
Japan | 11,106 | 13,811 | 12,773 | 10,989 | 9,833 | 8,117 |
China | 4,142 | 4,595 | 5,517 | 5,597 | 7,918 | 8,847 |
Russia | 2,265 | 2,450 | 3,417 | 3,465 | 3,108 | 2,086 |
Australia | 4,707 | 5,304 | 4,875 | 4,956 | 5,439 | 4,903 |
Hong Kong | 4,900 | 6,145 | 7,159 | 9,035 | 11,195 | 10,289 |
Others | 24,973 | 29,435 | 33,521 | 36,954 | 41,090 | 40,262 |
Total | 70,093 | 80,930 | 87,626 | 94,689 | 102,563 | 95,880 |
Wheat Basis | 95,887 | 110,712 | 119,873 | 129,535 | 140,306 | 131,164 |
Source: Korean Customs Service (KCS)
a/ year round based on the first seven months (July 2014-January 2015)
Wheat PS&D
Wheat | 2013/2014 | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | |||
Market Begin Year | Jul 2013 | Jul 2014 | Jul 2015 | |||
Korea, South | USDA Official | New post | USDA Official | New post | USDA Official | New post |
Area Harvested | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
Beginning Stocks | 1,521 | 1,521 | 1,473 | 1,402 | 0 | 1,414 |
Production | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 25 |
MY Imports | 4,288 | 4,312 | 3,800 | 3,900 | 0 | 4,000 |
TY Imports | 4,288 | 4,312 | 3,800 | 3,900 | 0 | 4,000 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 1,403 | 1,220 | 0 | 1,300 | 0 | 1,300 |
Total Supply | 5,836 | 5,860 | 5,300 | 5,329 | 0 | 5,439 |
MY Exports | 144 | 203 | 150 | 195 | 0 | 200 |
TY Exports | 144 | 203 | 150 | 195 | 0 | 200 |
Feed and Residual | 1,900 | 1,936 | 1,400 | 1,400 | 0 | 1,500 |
FSI Consumption | 2,319 | 2,319 | 2,320 | 2,320 | 0 | 2,340 |
Total Consumption | 4,219 | 4,255 | 3,720 | 3,720 | 0 | 3,840 |
Ending Stocks | 1,473 | 1,402 | 1,430 | 1,414 | 0 | 1,399 |
Total Distribution | 5,836 | 5,860 | 5,300 | 5,329 | 0 | 5,439 |
1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA |
Import Trade Matrix | |||
Country | Korea, Republic of | ||
Commodity | Wheat | ||
Time Period | July/June | Units: | 1,000MT |
Imports for: | 2012 | 2013 | |
U.S. | 1404 | U.S. | 1218 |
Others | Others | ||
Australia | 1787 | Australia | 940 |
India | 1552 | Romania | 616 |
Brazil | 175 | Canada | 444 |
Canada | 261 | India | 371 |
Ukraine | 102 | Bulgaria | 247 |
Ukraine | 151 | ||
Russia | 72 | ||
Turkey | 48 | ||
Serbia | 19 | ||
Total for Others | 3877 | 2908 | |
Others not Listed | 0 | 2 | |
Grand Total | 5281 | 4128 | |
Note: exclude the import of wheat flour and pasta |
Korea: Milling Wheat Imports by Variety (Arrival Basis, Calendar Year) | |||||
Origin | Variety | CY 2013 | CY 2014 | ||
(1,000 MT) | % | (1,000 MT) | % | ||
United States | No. 1 WW/SW | 447,729 | 21.9 | 424,386 | 20.0 |
No. 1 WW/SW 8.5 max. | 56,679 | 2.8 | 62,507 | 3.0 | |
No. 1 HRW 11.5 min. | 207,162 | 10.1 | 200,854 | 9.5 | |
No. 1 DNS 14.0 min. | 275,836 | 13.5 | 303,211 | 14.3 | |
No. 2 SRW | 6,504 | 0.3 | 7,042 | 0.3 | |
Sub Total | 993,910 | 48.7 | 998,000 | 47.1 | |
Australia | ASW a/ | 760,902 | 37.3 | 839,394 | 39.6 |
AH b/ | 123,552 | 6.1 | 117,992 | 5.5 | |
APH d/ | 206 | 0.0 | 52,979 | 2.5 | |
APW e/ | 41,404 | 2.0 | 239 | 0.1 | |
Sub Total | 926,064 | 45.4 | 1,010,604 | 47.7 | |
Canada | No. 2 CWRS 13.5 min. | 119,372 | 5.8 | 107,400 | 5.0 |
Others | Organic Wheat | 1,766 | 0.1 | 3,599 | 0.2 |
Grand Total | 2,041,112 | 100.0 | 2,119,603 | 100 |
Source: Korea Flour Mills Industrial Association (KOFMIA)
a/ Australian Standard White Wheat
b/ Australian Hard Wheat
c/ Australian Noodle Wheat
d/ Australian Premium Hard
e/ Australian Premium Wheat