Korea. Wheat Annual. Apr 2015 / News / AgroChart

Production:

MY 2015/16 wheat production is forecast to decline to 24,900 tons, down 6 percent from the current marketing year's estimate due to decreased planting area. The upland direct payment program doesn't increase wheat planting area because wheat requires a longer growing period compared to other winter crops such as barley and forage crops, hindering timely rice transplantation as a double crop after wheat cultivation. The Korean government has made upland direct payment of 400,000 Korean Won (US$380) per hectare to farmers who have grown winter crops in their paddy fields since 2014.

Korea: Wheat Production
Crop Year	Harvested Area(Hectare)	Yield(MT/HA)	Production(MT)
2006	1,738	3.34	5,810
2007	1,928	3.81	7,624
2008	2,549	4.06	10,359
2009	5,067	5.15	26,087
2010	12,548	3.12	39,116
2011	13,044	3.35	43,677
2012	9,467	3.91	37,014
2013	7,373	3.68	27,130
2014 a/	7,180	3.70	26,500
2015 a/	7,000	3.55	24,900

Source: Ministry for Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA), Statistics Korea (KOSTAT)

a/ FAS/Seoul forecast; yield is based on five year average.

Consumption:

MY 2015/16 wheat consumption is forecast at 3.84 million tons, an increase of nearly 120,000 tons from the current marketing year due to an anticipated increase of available supply of competitively-priced feed wheat, as milling wheat consumption remains stable.

MY 2015/16 milling wheat consumption, including flour and pasta trade on a wheat basis, is forecast at 2.34 million tons, a slight increase from the current marketing year.

In MY 2014/15, total wheat consumption is expected to stay around 3.72 million tons, down 13 percent from the previous year mainly due to lower demand for imported feed grade wheat which has been less competitive than corn. Milling wheat consumption is expected to be 2.32 million tons, which includes imports of flour and pasta, almost the same as the previous year.

Korea: Monthly Wheat Use (1,000 MT)
Month	Feed Wheat		Milling Wheat a/
Month	MY 2013/14	MY 2014/15	MY 2013/14	MY 2014/15
July	235	129	176	183
August	219	121	173	174
September	226	126	156	166
October	245	134	185	179
November	205	130	180	172
December	159	143	180	186
January	125	115	184	194
February	100	103	161	152
Sub Total	1,541	1,001	1,395	1,406
March	101	na	176	na
April	100	na	180	na
May	108	na	177	na
June	114	na	175	na
Total	1,936	na	2,102	na

Source: KFA and KOFMIA

a/ includes wheat flour exports, but excludes the portion used in soy-sauce production

Korea: Post Estimates of Domestic Wheat Use (1,000 MT, July/June)
Year	2012/13	2013/14	2014/15c/	2015/16c/
Imported Milling Wheat 1/	2,193	2,132	2,130	2,150
Imported Milling Wheat 2/	167	180	180	180
Flour Imports a/	39	33	35	35
Flour Exports a/	62	63	65	65
Pasta Imports a/	135	150	150	155
Pasta Exports a/	130	140	130	140
Local Wheat	37	27	27	25
FSI Consumptionb/	2,379	2,319	2,327	2,340
Feed Wheat	2,818	1,936	1,400	1,500
Total Consumptionb/	5,197	4,255	3,727	3,840

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA), Korea Flour Millers Industry Association (KOFMIA) and Korea Customs Service (KCS)

a/ Wheat basis

b/ include local wheat, flour imports and pasta imports but exclude flour exports and pasta exports

c/ FAS/Seoul forecast

1/ KOFMIA members

2/ non- KOFMIA member

Korea: Wheat Flour Utilization (1,000 MT)
Calendar Year	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Total Consumption 1/	1,615	1,610	1,634	1,672	1,575	1,695
Per Capita (Kg/Year) 2/	31.4	32.6	32.8	33.4	31.4	33.6

Source: Korea Flour Mills Industrial Association (KOFMIA)

1/ based on flour millers' sales including exports, imports and animal feed purposes, but wheat flour production basis excluding animal feed and exports since 2010.

2/ excludes animal feed and exports from total consumption, including imports of wheat flour.

Trade:

MY 2015/16 wheat imports are projected at 4 million tons, of which 2.5 million tons is for milling (including flour and pasta imports on a wheat equivalent basis) and 1.50 million tons for feed. The import estimate hinges to a large extent on the continued availability of feed wheat with milling wheat remaining steady.

MY 2014/15 wheat imports are expected to reach 3.9 million tons given that imports for feed wheat were lower than the previous year during the first eight months of the current marketing year and pending feed grade wheat contracts for the remaining four months. In MY 2014/15 Ukraine is the major supplier of feed grade wheat, followed by Bulgaria, Canada, the United States, Romania, France and Denmark for the first eight months. Imports of U.S. wheat in MY 2014/15 are expected to reach around 1.3 million tons, including approximately 100,000 MT of feed grade wheat.

Korea: Wheat Imports

(1,000 MT, Customs Cleared Basis)

Marketing Year (July/June)	Feed Wheat	Milling Wheat	Flour Imports 1/	Pasta Import 1/	Total
05/06	1,536	2,220	41	101	3,898
06/07	976	2,298	69	108	3,451
07/08	565	2,317	105	117	3,104
08/09	1,151	2,058	69	105	3,383
09/10	2,164	2,071	127	119	4,481
10/11	2,075	2,520	63	123	4,781
11/12	2,868	2,169	42	122	5,201
12/13	2,820	2,461	39	135	5,455
13/14	1,948	2,181	33	150	4,312
14/152/	1,400	2,310	35	155	3,900
15/162/	1,500	2,300	40	160	4,000

Source: Korea Customs Service

1/ Wheat basis

2/ FAS/Seoul forecast

Korea: Monthly Wheat Imports (1,000 MT)
Month	Feed Wheat		Milling Wheat
Month	MY 2013/14	MY 2014/15	MY 2013/14	MY 2014/15
July	249	87	77	178
August	163	35	259	189
September	198	149	91	182
October	316	230	234	237
November	161	117	129	179
December	120	97	267	206
January	130	143	129	212
February	187	64	182	168
Sub Total	1,524	922	1,368	1,551
March	42	Na	247	Na
April	125	Na	210	Na
May	74	Na	165	Na
June	183	Na	191	Na
Total	1,948	Na	2,181	Na

Korea: MY 20014/15 Monthly Wheat Imports by Origin (1,000 MT, based on Customs Clearance)
Country	U. S.	Australia	Canada	India	Other	Total
Milling Wheat
July 2014	140	15	23	0	0	178
August	90	93	6	0	0	189
September	72	77	33	0	0	182
October	107	119	11	0	0	237
November	56	99	23	0	1	179
December	99	104	2	0	1	206
January 2015	144	49	18	0	1	212
February	75	92	0	0	1	168
Total(Jul-Feb) 2014/15	783	648	116	0	4	1,551
Total(Jul-Feb) 2013/14	719	562	87	0	0	1,367
Feed Wheat
July 2014	47	0	30	5	5	87
August	0	0	30	5	0	35
September	0	0	39	0	110a/	149
October	0	0	0	0	230b/	230
November	0	0	3	0	114c/	117
December	0	0	0	0	97d/	97
January 2015	28	0	0	0	115e/	143
February	3	0	0	0	61f/	64
Total(Jul-Feb) 2014/15	78	0	102	10	732	922
Total(Jul-Feb) 2013/14	0	0	183	249	1,092	1,524
Total Wheat
July 2014	187	15	52	5	5	266
August	90	93	36	5	0	224
September	72	77	71	0	110	331
October	107	119	11	0	230	467
November	56	99	26	0	115	296
December	99	104	2	0	97	303
January 2015	173	49	18	0	115	355
February	78	92	0	0	62	232
Total(Jul-Feb) 2014/15	862	648	216	10	734	2,473
Total(Jul-Feb) 2013/14	719	562	270	249	1,092	2,892

Source: Korea Customs Service

a/ Romania (40,675 MT); Bulgaria (69,449 MT)

b/ Ukraine (161,836); Bulgaria (46,854); Romania (21,827)

c/ Ukraine (113,736);

d/ Ukraine (96,142); Romania (1,094)

e/ Ukraine (56,456); France (57,750)

f/ Ukraine (12,002); Denmark (49,282)

Korea: MY 2014/15 Feed Wheat Contractsby Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) (Unit: 1,000 MT, as of early January 2015)
ETA	Quantity	Price (USD/MT)1/
Jul. 2014	65	290
Aug.	130	289
Sep.	106	287
Oct.	194	268
Dec.	84	244
Jan. 2015	118	241
Feb.	112	249
Mar.	55	250
Apr.	110	250
May	135	242
June	145	234
Total	1,254

Source: Local Grain Traders

1/ CNF on Weighted Average

Tariff

In early January 2015, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) released its adjusted tariffs and tariff rate quotas (TRQ) for CY 2015. However, the government excluded milling wheat from the list of autonomous TRQ in CY 2015. The out-of- quota duty remains fixed at 1.8 percent. Of note, the feed wheat TRQ and its corresponding duty were eliminated in 2007. The duty on U.S. wheat is zero under the KORUS FTA.

In CY 2015, the flour import tariff rate is applied at 4.2 percent of the local base rate. Under KORUS FTA, import tariffs for U.S. wheat flour (H.S. 1101.00.1000) are scheduled to phase out over a 5-year period, declining to 0.8 percent in 2015, while tariffs for meslin flour (H.S. 1101.00.2000) the mixture of rye and wheat flour, immediately fell to zero.

Korea: Wheat Import Tariff Rates for CY 2015 (Percent)
Commodity		Applied Tariff Rate		Bound Tariff Rate
Commodity		2014	2015	2014	2015
Durum Wheat, Seed	1001.11.0000	3	3	9.0	9.0
Durum Wheat, Other	1001.19.0000	3	3	9.0	9.0
Seed, Meslins	1001.91.1000	3	3	9.0	9.0
Seed, Other	1001.91.9000	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.8
Feeding, Meslins	1001.99.1010	3	3	9.0	9.0
Feeding, Other	1001.99.1090	0	0	1.8	1.8
Milling, Meslins	1001.99.2010	3	3	9.0	9.0
Milling, Other1/	1001.99.2090	1.8(1)	1.8	1.8	1.8
Others, Meslins	1001.99.9010	3	3	9.0	9.0
Others, Other1/	1001.99.9090	1.8(1)	1.8	1.8	1.8

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

1/ The number in parenthesis is the in-quota tariff rate.

Flour Trade:

MY 2014/15 flour imports are expected to increase to 40,000 tons (wheat equivalent) to meet demand from small-sized restaurants and noodle manufacturers as they are loyal users of cheaper priced flour. Pasta imports are expected to be around 150,000 MT (wheat equivalent) based on imports for the first seven months of the marketing year. Annual flour exports are approximately 60,000 tons (wheat equivalent), while pasta exports remain around 130,000 MT (wheat equivalent).

Korea: Wheat Flour Imports (Metric Ton, July/June)
Country	MY2009	MY2010	MY2011	MY2012	MY2013	MY2014a/
U.S.A.	873	531	1,025	1,318	716	1,056
Canada	34,213	13,540	1,381	1,037	973	811
Australia	1,252	528	223	395	658	2,707
China	1,328	583	0	121	60	0
Turkey	24,568	11,130	8,784	3,636	1,144	1,154
Indonesia	7,647	9,956	7,708	9,616	8,011	6,108
Hungary	8,893	110	0	0	0	0
Others	14,112	9,772	11,250	12,478	10,237	16,085
Total	92,886	46,150	30,371	28,600	21,799	27,921
Wheat Basis	127,068	63,133	41,548	39,125	29,821	38,195

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

a/ year round based on the first seven months (July 2014-January 2015)

Korea: Pasta Imports
(Metric Ton, July/June)
Country	MY2009	MY2010	MY2011	MY2012	MY2013	MY2014a/
U.S.A.	326	424	429	512	451	336
China	64,123	62,024	61,766	65,716	73,991	72,555
Italy	13,525	16,368	15,169	19,193	20,595	21,305
Thailand	2,584	3,142	3,851	4,359	4,894	4,889
Indonesia	2,102	2,530	1,593	2,007	1,994	2,925
Turkey	2,388	2,507	3,193	3,630	4,094	3,597
Others	2,242	2,960	3,090	3,466	3,717	3,809
Total	87,290	89,955	89,091	98,883	109,736	109,416
Wheat Basis	119,413	123,058	121,876	135,272	150,118	149,681

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

a/ year round based on the first seven months (July 2014-January 2015)

Korea: Wheat Flour Exports (Metric Ton, July/June)
	MY2009	MY2010	MY2011	MY2012	MY2013	MY2014a/
Total	44,234	48,056	44,909	46,843	43,230	46,963
Wheat Basis	58,979	64,075	59,879	62,457	57,640	62,617

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

a/ year round based on the first seven months (July 2014-January 2015)

Korea: Pasta Exports (Metric Ton, July/June)
Country	MY2009	MY2010	MY2011	MY2012	MY2013	MY2014a/
USA	18,000	19,189	20,365	23,694	23,979	21,375
Japan	11,106	13,811	12,773	10,989	9,833	8,117
China	4,142	4,595	5,517	5,597	7,918	8,847
Russia	2,265	2,450	3,417	3,465	3,108	2,086
Australia	4,707	5,304	4,875	4,956	5,439	4,903
Hong Kong	4,900	6,145	7,159	9,035	11,195	10,289
Others	24,973	29,435	33,521	36,954	41,090	40,262
Total	70,093	80,930	87,626	94,689	102,563	95,880
Wheat Basis	95,887	110,712	119,873	129,535	140,306	131,164

Source: Korean Customs Service (KCS)

a/ year round based on the first seven months (July 2014-January 2015)

Wheat PS&D

Wheat	2013/2014		2014/2015		2015/2016
Market Begin Year	Jul 2013		Jul 2014		Jul 2015
Korea, South	USDA Official	New post	USDA Official	New post	USDA Official	New post
Area Harvested	7	7	7	7	0	7
Beginning Stocks	1,521	1,521	1,473	1,402	0	1,414
Production	27	27	27	27	0	25
MY Imports	4,288	4,312	3,800	3,900	0	4,000
TY Imports	4,288	4,312	3,800	3,900	0	4,000
TY Imp. from U.S.	1,403	1,220	0	1,300	0	1,300
Total Supply	5,836	5,860	5,300	5,329	0	5,439
MY Exports	144	203	150	195	0	200
TY Exports	144	203	150	195	0	200
Feed and Residual	1,900	1,936	1,400	1,400	0	1,500
FSI Consumption	2,319	2,319	2,320	2,320	0	2,340
Total Consumption	4,219	4,255	3,720	3,720	0	3,840
Ending Stocks	1,473	1,402	1,430	1,414	0	1,399
Total Distribution	5,836	5,860	5,300	5,329	0	5,439
1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Import Trade Matrix
Country		Korea, Republic of
Commodity		Wheat
Time Period	July/June	Units:	1,000MT
Imports for:	2012		2013
U.S.	1404	U.S.	1218
Others		Others
Australia	1787	Australia	940
India	1552	Romania	616
Brazil	175	Canada	444
Canada	261	India	371
Ukraine	102	Bulgaria	247
		Ukraine	151
		Russia	72
		Turkey	48
		Serbia	19
Total for Others	3877		2908
Others not Listed	0		2
Grand Total	5281		4128
Note: exclude the import of wheat flour and pasta

Korea: Milling Wheat Imports by Variety (Arrival Basis, Calendar Year)
Origin	Variety	CY 2013		CY 2014
Origin	Variety	(1,000 MT)	%	(1,000 MT)	%
United States	No. 1 WW/SW	447,729	21.9	424,386	20.0
	No. 1 WW/SW 8.5 max.	56,679	2.8	62,507	3.0
	No. 1 HRW 11.5 min.	207,162	10.1	200,854	9.5
	No. 1 DNS 14.0 min.	275,836	13.5	303,211	14.3
	No. 2 SRW	6,504	0.3	7,042	0.3
	Sub Total	993,910	48.7	998,000	47.1
Australia	ASW a/	760,902	37.3	839,394	39.6
	AH b/	123,552	6.1	117,992	5.5
	APH d/	206	0.0	52,979	2.5
	APW e/	41,404	2.0	239	0.1
	Sub Total	926,064	45.4	1,010,604	47.7
Canada	No. 2 CWRS 13.5 min.	119,372	5.8	107,400	5.0
Others	Organic Wheat	1,766	0.1	3,599	0.2
	Grand Total	2,041,112	100.0	2,119,603	100

Source: Korea Flour Mills Industrial Association (KOFMIA)

a/ Australian Standard White Wheat

b/ Australian Hard Wheat

c/ Australian Noodle Wheat

d/ Australian Premium Hard

e/ Australian Premium Wheat

Korea. Wheat Annual. Apr 2015 May 11, 2015