Korea. Corn Annual. Apr 2015 May 11, 2015

Production:

Corn production is negligible and accounts for less than one percent of total consumption. Planted area for MY 2015/16 is expected to remain steady at around 16,000 hectares, while production is forecast at 77,000 MT based on the preceding five-year average yield.

Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) recently released data on 2014 planting area at 15,839 hectares, down just 0.4 percent over the previous year. Post estimates Korea's corn production at about 78,000 metric tons based on the preceding five-year average yield. The government will release the 2014 official production figures in April 2015.

Source: Ministry for Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA), Statistics Korea (KOSTAT)

a/ FAS/Seoul forecast based on five-year average yield per corn harvest area KOSTAT released.

b/ FAS/Seoul projection based on five-year average yield

Consumption:

MY 2015/16 corn consumption is forecast to stay around 10 million MT, slightly down 0.1 million MT from the estimated record consumption in the current marketing year. Cattle farmers are expected to reduce their inventories due to a decreasing supply of calves until CY 2017. Feed corn consumption is projected to decrease to 7.9 million MT, down 0.1 million MT from the estimated current marketing year level in large part due to an anticipated decrease in compound feed production for the cattle sector. However, food, seed and industrial (FSI) corn consumption is expected to stay around 2.1 million MT to meet a constant demand for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and corn products from Korean food industries.

MY 2014/15 corn consumption remains unchanged at 10.1 million tons from the previous forecast, which is composed of 8 million tons for feed purpose and 2.1 million tons for food, seed and industrial (FSI) purpose. Greater demand for feed corn will offset the decrease of feed grade wheat, which is less competitive than corn in the global market.

Feed

Compound feed production is expected to remain around 18.8 million tons for both MY 2014/15 and MY 2015/16, respectively, due to strong growth in swine inventory which offsets the reduction in cattle, while poultry numbers stay strong and steady. Feed corn is expected to be the major ingredient used in compound feed, accounting for more than 40 percent of total ingredients for both marketing years.

Food

Corn processors continue using GM corn and non-biotech IP corn as well as traditional corn to produce corn starch, HFCS and corn flour. GM corn imported from the United States, South American countries and Ukraine has been used for starch and HFCS. Non-biotech IP corn imported from the United States and Brazil and traditional corn imported from Hungary, Serbia, Romania and South Africa have been used for corn starch, HFCS and corn flour. The perceived public concern over biotech continues to exert pressures on imported processing corn, especially biotech corn that is used to manufacture cooking oil and HFCS. Many food processing companies have been reluctant to use ingredients sourced from biotech corn. Some food processing companies utilizing corn starch products have sourced ingredients imported from China since these items are reportedly derived from non-biotech corn.

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA), Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCPIA)

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA), Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCPIA)

a/ Used for wet and dry milling process based on imported corn.

b/ For on-farm human consumption (on-the-cob) or snack food consumed on-the-cob, as puffed kernels or as corn tea. Imported white corn for popping has been included since MY 2004.

c/ FAS Seoul forecast

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA)

a/ FAS Seoul forecast

b/ includes Tapioca, bran and gluten feed.

c/ includes vegetable protein meal, animal protein, minerals/additives, tallow, DDGS and molasses.

Source: Ministry for Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA)

a/ Preliminary

b/ FAS/Seoul forecast

d/ include ducks, rabbit, horse, sheep, deer, quail etc

Trade:

With cattle inventories expected to fall while swine numbers are growing, MY 2015/16 total corn imports are projected to increase to 9.8 million MT, up 200,000 tons from the current marketing year estimate, consisting of 7.8 million MT of feed corn to meet the demand for compound feed, and 2 million MT of processing corn to meet relatively stable demand for food processing.

MY 2015/16 U.S. corn imports are forecast to increase to 4 million MT or about 41 percent of total Korean corn imports, up from the estimated 40 percent of total Korean corn import for the current marketing year.

Corn imports for MY 2014/15 are expected to decrease to 9.6 million MT, down 0.8 million tons from the previous year due to higher feed corn imports than actual corn consumption for feed in the previous year, resulting in higher ending stocks than normal. For the first five months in MY 2014/15, corn imports for feed are about 15 percent lower than the same period of the previous marketing year.

In MY 2014/15, U.S. corn exports to Korea are revised down to 3.8 million tons, down one million tons from post's previous forecast due to greater supply of competitively priced Eastern European/Black Sea corn in recent corn contracts in tandem with expected competitively priced South American corn for the latter part of the marketing year. For the first five months of the marketing year, U.S. corn market share was at 23 percent.

As of early March 2015, importers contracted 8.6 million tons of corn for deliveries through September 2015, continuing to make up for some contracts for July 2015 arrival onward. Most feed corn contracts are optional origin at seller's option from South American countries, Eastern Europe/Black Sea, or the United States with a price range of USD 200-269 per metric ton CNF, while corn processors have contracted for No. 2 GM/non-GM yellow corn from South America or the United States, and conventional corn from Eastern Europe with a price range of USD 208-276 per metric ton, CNF. Most recent buying contracts were stabilized in the range of USD 200-204 per ton for feed corn and USD 208-217 for processing corn, CNF.

Source: Korea Customs Service

a/ FAS/Seoul forecast

Source: Korea Customs Service

1/ Ukraine (792,174 MT), Russia (87,081 MT), Serbia (113,652 MT), Romania (117,204 MT), South Africa (146,627 MT), Hungary (40,637MT) and Australia (16,717 MT)

Source: Korea Customs Service

Source: Local Grain Traders

1/ reflecting 90-95 percent of actual contracts due to some omitted contracts data

2/ optional origins at seller's option out of USA, SOAM or Europe

3/ USD/MT, CNF on Weighted Average

Tariff

In early January 2015, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) released its adjusted tariffs and tariff rate quotas (TRQ) for CY 2015. The autonomous TRQs cover a variety of agricultural products, including feed corn. The TRQ for feed corn set at 8 million MT with zero percent duty for CY 2015. However, the government excluded processing corn from the list of TRQs in 2015. The out-of-quota duty for both feed and processing corn remained fixed at 328 percent.

Of the annual autonomous TRQs for feed corn, 8 million MT has been allocated to feed millers who are members of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) and Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI). The Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCPIA) manages about 2 million MT of processing corn at 3 percent of import tariff rate as base rate.

Under KORUS FTA, the duty on U.S. feed corn immediately fell to zero. If imports of U.S. corn claim the KORUS preferential duty, those imports would not count against the global TRQ. Conversely, the duty free volumes for corn for food processing will grow each year with tariffs being completely phased out by 2019.

Source: Korea Customs Service (KCS)

Corn PS&D

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA), Korea Corn Processing Industry Association (KOCPIA)

a/ Used for wet and dry milling process based on imported corn.

b/ For on-farm human consumption (on-the-cob) or snack food consumed on-the-cob, as puffed kernels or as corn tea. Imported white corn for popping has been included since MY 2004

Source: Korea Feed Association (KFA)

1/ Domestic Products