Production:

Turkish barley production for MY 2014/15 is estimated at 4 MMT and for MY 2015/16 is forecast at 6.6 MMT. Drought in Southeastern Anatolia and part of Central Anatolia greatly reduced barley yields in MY 2014/15. Barley production area in South East Anatolia slightly decreased in MY 2015/16. In the Harran Plato, where irrigation is just available, farmers are moving away from planting barley in favor of higher returns on other commodities such as milling wheat and corn as a second crop. Also, some preferred to plant fruit trees in barley fields in recent years in South East Anatolia. That reduction offset by increasing in Central Anatolia. Some farmers planted without fallow in Central Anatolia (Cihanbeyli and Kulu) because good precipitation levels in the winter months supported barley planting.

The government announced a premium of 50 TL/MT for barley, rye, and oat growers in MY 2015/16 and MY 2014/15. This premium has not changed since 2010.

Consumption:

Due to poor production levels, the barley price increased in MY 2014/15, but increasing was limited in MY 2014/15, partly due to intervention from TMO. It is the first time TMO started to sell barley to domestic market throughout the harvest. The barley price at the Konya CME on March 25, 2015, was 748 TL/MT ($304/MT). The price of imported barley in March 2015 was CIF Marmara $225/MT.

Barley traditionally has been the preferred feed grain in Turkey, especially for ruminants. Half of barley consumption as feed went into commercial feed production and the other half was feed directly to livestock or mixed on the farm. Approximately 10 percent of barley consumption is Malting barley, which has been steady in recent years.

Turkey Barley Sell Price

TMO sell price

Sell Price (TL and $/MT)

Type

June-July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Barley (imported)

649 TL

654 TL

655 TL

659 TL

675 TL

680 TL

685 TL

690 TL

690 TL

$306

$303

$296

$292

$302

$296

$293

$280

$266

Barley (domestic)

-

-

-

-

-

680 TL

685 TL

690 TL

690 TL

$296

$293

$280

$266

Trade:

Post forecasts barley imports of 100,000 MT due to improved production. Most of these imports will be destined for the feed sector, which will have access to large domestic supplies. Exports are typically low as Turkey utilizes production domestically. As a result, Post forecasts 40,000 MT of barley exports.

Due to the poor harvest in 2014 TMO played a leading role in managing the market. TMO sold barley to the domestic market even though Turkey is in the barley harvest season. TMO has imported about 700,000 MT of barley since January. TMO still has 200,000 MT of barley stocks.

Turkey Barley Trade

TURKEY: BARLEY FOREIGN TRADE

MONTH

IMPORT MY2013

IMPORT MY2014

EXPORT MY2013

EXPORT MY2014

June

8,800

1,768

0

0

July

0

57,705

0

0

August

0

144,363

0

0

September

10,000

148,456

38

5,020

October

67

165,334

24

96

November

49

45,174

46

2,543

December

10,368

15,004

0

1,573

Sub, Total June- Dec

29,283

577,804

108

9,231

January

24,971

2.454

0

7

February

0

0

4,767

0

March

5,500

0

0

0

April

55,000

0

0

0

May

12,719

0

0

0

MY TOTAL

127,472

1,500,000*

4,875

9,238

* Forecast

Turkey traditionally import from France but this year Black Sea region is more attractive for barley importer.

Turkey Barley Imports by Origin

Turkey: Barley Imports (June to January)

Countries

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

Ukraine

3686

10610

334,385

Russia

14867

0

161,007

Romania

0

66

49,302

Others

256768

116796

35,564

Total

275321

127472

580,258

*June 2014-January 2015

Total barley foreign trade

Turkey:Barley Foreign Trade Data

YEAR

IMPORTS (,000$)

IMPORTS MT)

EXPORTS(,000$)

EXPORTS (MT)

MY2012

92,316

275,321

17

39

MY2013

38,867

127,472

1,704

4,875

MY2014*

135,672

580,258

4,764

9,235

*June 2014-January 2015

Stocks:

TMO has around 4.3 MMT of elevator capacity and is investing in modernizing its elevators. TMO is also leasing modern elevators from the private sector.

TMO and the Turkish Union of Chambers in Polatlı opened a licensed warehouse system in 2011 with 40,000 MT of grain storage capacity. Currently, 6 companies have about 275,000 MT of licensed warehouse capacity.

TMO and the private sector have approximately 2 MMT of stocks of wheat as they enter the new harvest. TMO has 285,000 MT of corn, 200,000 MT of barley, 45,000 MT paddy rice.

Policy(please see Policy at Turkey. Wheat Annual. Apr 2015)

S&D BARLEY

Barley

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jun 2013

Jun 2014

Jun 2015

Turkey

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

3,330

3,330

3,400

3,400

0

3,400

Beginning Stocks

469

469

899

899

0

344

Production

7,300

7,300

4,000

4,000

0

6,600

MY Imports

86

86

1,500

1,500

0

100

TY Imports

596

596

750

750

0

100

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

7,855

7,855

6,399

6,399

0

7,044

MY Exports

6

6

5

5

0

40

TY Exports

9

9

5

5

0

40

Feed and Residual

6,000

6,000

5,200

5,200

0

5,800

FSI Consumption

950

950

850

850

0

850

Total Consumption

6,950

6,950

6,050

6,050

0

6,650

Ending Stocks

899

899

344

344

0

354

Total Distribution

7,855

7,855

6,399

6,399

0

7,044

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA