Production:

Corn is becoming more popular among Turkish farmers with the increasing availability of irrigation in recent years. Lower returns on cotton in MY 2014/15, new fields with access to irrigation, TMO's procurement price, and increasing demand from feed sector are the driving forces driving corn's popularity.

The Turkish second-crop corn harvest ended in January 2015. Despite high yields, especially in the region between Mardin, Batman and Bismil in the South East region, the crop's quality was not good. In Çukurova and the GAP region the yield was 8-11 MT/ha compared to 8-12 MT in MY 2013/14. However, returns were better than for other commodities.

Post estimates the total MY 2014/15 corn production at 4.8 MMT of which 2 MMT is second crop and forecasts MY 2015/16 at 5.8 MMT, which would be a record due to increasing planting area. Corn area is forecast to increase about 10 percent.

The Aegean region, the Çukurova region and South East Anatolia are the primary corn producers in Turkey. First crop corn will be planted from the first week of March until mid-April. In the Central Anatolian region, farmers are reportedly moving away from planting sunflowerseed in favor of crops with higher returns such as corn, potatoes and sugar beets.

Cotton and sunflowerseed areas are projected to decline in MY 2015/16 due to disappointing returns in MY 2014/15. Increasing 5,000 ha soybean area is not enough to offset the loss in sunflower and cottonseed production. The cumulative decline is about 70,000 ha – some of which is being utilized for corn production.

The corn premium is unchanged at 40 TL/MT ($16.26/MT) in MY 2015/16.

TMO announced the corn market price at 680 TL/MT ($315/MT) on August 15, 2014. On August 15, 2014, 1 USD was 2.16 TL, which was 1.93 TL on the previous announcement date in 2013. The procurement price in MY 2013/14 was 640 TL/MT ($331/MT).

TMO procured 1,373,444 MT of corn in MY2013. However, TMO procured only about 175,000 MT of corn in MY 2014/15 due to farmer preference to sell to the private sector. Also, as in last year, farmers should schedule an appointment date through a web-based system to sell their crop to TMO.

Consumption:

TMO procured 175,000 MT of corn in MY 2014/15 at a price of 680 TL/MT ($314/MT). The TMO corn sale price was 735 TL/MT ($340) in MY 2014/15, excluding VAT and handling charge.

The corn price was 712 TL/MT ($290/MT) in the Adana CME and 714 TL/MT ($290/MT) in the Şanlıurfa CME on March 25, 2015. The corn import price in March 2015 is CIF Marmara $178/MT

which was $190/MT at the end of 2014, and $161/MT in February. Prices are fluctuating due to the Ruble's unstable value.

The corn premium for MY 2015/16 is 40 TL/MT ($16.26/MT), which is unchanged since MY2009 when it increased from 36 TL/MT ($27.69) in MY 2008.

Feed

Post forecasts feed utilization of 950,000 MT, which is an increase from 700,000 MT in MY 2014/15. The increase is due to projected higher yields that equate to lower protein quality, and is often used for animal feed.

Feed costs in the livestock sector represent 70 percent of total production costs. In CY 2014, Turkey imported 8.73 MMT of feed ingredients, 1.7 MMT more than in 2013. Soybeans represented 23 percent of total feed material imports in 2014, corn represented 16 percent, starch bran represented 10 percent, sunflower seed meal represented 9 percent, and soybean meal represented 7 percent. Turkey imported 4.2 MMT of oil seed and meal, and 2.1 MMT of grain for feed production in 2014.

Turkey's total mixed feed production increased 13 percent compared to 2013 to 18 MMT in 2014. The feed industry growth rate will continue to increase steadily in the coming years in line with developments in the broiler, egg and livestock industries. According to sector representatives, the feed sector plans to grow 6 percent an annually until 2023 to reach 30 MMT of production.

Feed prices in recent months

Turkey: Feed Price (TL and $/MT)

Type of Feed

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Broiler Feed

1400 TL

1470 TL

1300 TL

1200 TL

1170 TL

1130 TL

1130 TL

1175 TL

$663

$696

$604

$542

$520

$506

$493

$504

Layer Feed

1100 TL

1150 TL

1050 TL

1000 TL

970 TL

960 TL

960 TL

995 TL

$521

$545

$488

$452

$431

$430

$419

$427

Dairy Cattle Feed

790 TL

830 TL

800 TL

770 TL

750 TL

730 TL

730 TL

760 TL

$374

$393

$372

$348

$333

$327

$318

$326

Beef Cattle Feed

780 TL

820 TL

780 TL

750 TL

730 TL

710 TL

710 TL

740 TL

$369

$388

$362

$340

$324

$318

$310

$317

World corn, soy and their derivatives prices decreased percent 25-30 compared to last year. Turkey soybean imports during the MY 2013/14 were 1.6MMT compared to 1.25 MMT a year ago, largely due to improved domestic crushing margins. Paraguay (492,000 MT), Brazil (415,000 MT) and the United States (350,000 MT) were the leading supplier of soybeans, followed by Ukraine (143,000 MT) and Argentina (127,000 MT). Soy imports continue to be strong during the first four months of MY2014 reaching 674,000 MT. The United States was the leading supplier with 401,000 MT; followed by Ukraine (242,000 MT), and Brazil (136,000 MT).

The decrease in world commodity markets has not translated to lower prices in Turkey due to the depreciation of the Turkish Lira to the U.S. dollar.

The price for U.S. soybeans (CIF Marmara) was $550/MT in January and $520/MT in March 2015. The price for Argentinean soybean meal (CIF Marmara) was $540/MT in January and $510/MT in March.

Turkish poultry operations who wanted to take advantage of low world prices placed large orders of DDGS from U.S. suppliers, but inconsistency in biotech testing results caused cargos to be rejected and shipments to be canceled. Due to import restrictions caused by the 2010 Biosafety Law, total U.S. exports declined about thirty-three percent to 227,000 MT. According to the law, all biotech varieties need to receive approval from the Biosafety Board for import. The Board has approved only fourteen corn events, but one (Mon88017xMon810) is effectively rescinded. Until all events utilized in the U.S. are approved, imports will carry the risk of rejection.

As a result of biotech risks in imports from North and South America, , and despite quality problems, many importers prefer Ukrainian soybeans. The price for Ukrainian soybeans (CIF Marmara) was $450/MT in March.

Demand for compound feed has been growing in Turkey due to limited pasture areas and an increasing number of modern livestock and poultry operations. Broiler and egg production had increased with an average of seven percent annually during the last ten years as a result of increasing domestic consumption and exports to neighboring countries. The GOT, in an effort to lower high local red meat prices, had been offering support programs to maintain and increase domestic livestock production as well.

Poultry producers are the most important end users of corn in Turkey. The poultry sector is one of the strongest and most developed food industries in Turkey, and domestic poultry consumption and exports have been increasing every year. The growth in 2014 was about two percent and total broiler meat production is estimated at 1.95 MMT (1.84 MMT for broiler meat). The industry also projects to grow about two percent in 2015. The negative publicity about biotech poultry feed and unscientific accusations of antibiotic use had prevented the industry from growing faster, and slowed the increase in domestic consumption. However, the increase in exports helped the industry to maintain growth. As a result of increasing production, per capita consumption of total poultry meat (including broilers, village stocks, slaughtered layers and turkey meat) reached 21 kilogram in 2014. The industry's target is to reach per capita consumption of 26.5 kilogram by 2023 (the Turkish Republic's centenary).

The layer industry is most rapidly growing section among feed sector. Only in 2 years layer feed production increased 2.5 times. Besides the layer industry grew about seven percent in 2013, about six percent in 2014, and total production reached 17.6 billion eggs. Of Turkey's total exports, about 27 percent are exported to foreign markets, which is $404 million dollars. Turkey is ranked as one of the top ten largest egg producers in the world. The industry has grown about fifty percent between 2008 and 2012 as a result of both domestic consumption and increases in exports. Turkey continues to export about twenty-five percent of its egg production, mostly to neighboring countries. Feed is about percent 65 of egg cost. Domestic consumption of eggs is also increasing, reaching 185 eggs per person in 2014.

Turkey Egg Production and Export

Turkey: Egg Production and Export

YEAR

PRODUCTION

EXPORT

%

2006

8,401

195

2.32

2010

13,980

2,143

15.33

2011

14,000

3,588

25.63

2012

15,677

4,080

26.03

2013

16,707

4,522

27.07

2014

17,607

4,649

26.40

Both industries have the potential for even higher growth, but are constrained by high feed material prices due to higher commodity prices and problems caused by the 2010 Biosafety Law, which limits the availability of imported feed ingredients.

Average commodity price at the Bandırma Commodity Exchange

Turkey: feed price (TL and $/MT)

Type of commodity

14-Jun

14-Jul

14-Aug

14-Sep

14-Oct

14-Nov

14-Dec

15-Jan

Milk

1400 TL

1470 TL

1300 TL

1200 TL

1170 TL

1130 TL

1130 TL

1175 TL

$663

$696

$602

$543

$520

$507

$492

$504

Meat

1100 TL

1150 TL

1050 TL

1000 TL

970 TL

960 TL

960 TL

995 TL

$519

$543

$486

$452

$430

$430

$418

$426

Egg

790 TL

830 TL

800 TL

770 TL

750 TL

730 TL

730 TL

760 TL

$373

$392

$370

$348

$332

$327

$318

$325

Broiler Meat Exports

QUANTITY OF BROILER MEAT EXPORTED

Quantity

% Share

% Change

Country

2012

2013

2014

2012

2013

2014

2014/2013

Iraq

167,150

208,200

218,977

55.01

57.31

54.27

5.18

Hong Kong

24,306

40,318

44,443

8.00

11.10

11.01

10.23

Syria

765

23,765

19,318

0.25

6.54

4.79

- 18.71

Tajikistan

13,718

14,775

18,422

4.52

4.07

4.57

24.69

Russia

80

0

17,521

0.03

0.00

4.34

0.00

Congo Dem. Rep.

5,026

7,380

11,641

1.65

2.03

2.89

57.73

TOTAL

303,829

363,304

403,479

100.00

100.00

100.00

11.06

Although the poultry industry has been growing steadily, the Turkish livestock sector has been up and down over the last several years, along with local milk and meat price fluctuations. Since 2010, the GOT has introduced a number of incentive programs to increase domestic livestock production and lower local red meat prices. In 2014, red meat production increased about 1.5 percent, and milk production increased about one percent.

Turkey exported 380,000 MT of compound feed in 2013. But Turkey exported 225,000 MT in 2014. The feed sector complains about restrictions on the import of feed ingredients, which are a barrier on compound feed exports, and not using their capacity effectively for export.

Trade:

Corn foreign trade of Turkey

TURKEY: CORN FOREIGN TRADE

MONTH

IMPORT MY2013/14

IMPORT MY2014/15

EXPORT MY2013/14

EXPORT MY2014/15

September

8,730

40,250

628

421

October

17,470

89,513

1,661

1,493

November

71,704

68,014

117,619

2,985

December

173,135

270,173

83,832

10,664

Sub Total Jun-Dec

271,040

467,949

203,740

15,564

January

131,348

237,440

22,562

9,789

February

104,551

3,092

March

105,330

2,088

April

87,919

1,298

May

130,067

6,494

June

228,599

8,837

July

129,825

3,392

August

38,007

1,292

MY TOTAL

1,226,685

1,500,000*

252,795

50,000*

*Forecast

Russia, Romania and Serbia are the leading corn suppliers for Turkey. The import price of corn was $178/MT in March 2015. Turkey imports corn duty free under an inward processing regime. TMO has also offered corn to processed product exporters at word prices since February 2015. The TMO price was at $185 in February and $167 in March, which was attractive to producers, despite quality problems, when compared to the corn import price of CIF Marmara $178/MT in March 2015.

Turkey Corn Imports

Turkey: Corn Imports (September to January)

Countries

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

Russia

845,426

829,912

424,330

Romania

55,076

152,558

156,110

Serbia

49

73,782

58,586

US

174

142

4,976

Others

576,589

170,291

61,388

Total

1,477,314

1,226,685

705,390

Turkey Corn Exports

Turkey: Corn Exports (September to January)

Countries

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

US

4,489

16,596

13,427

Italy

3,710

22,196

5,110

Germany

54

1,781

2,111

Others

7,702

212,222

4,705

Total

15,955

252,795

25,353

Turkey: Corn Foreign Trade Data

Turkey: Corn Foreign Trade Data

YEAR

IMPORTS

($1000)

IMPORTS

(MT)

EXPORTS

($1000)

EXPORTS (MT)

MY2013

312,621

1,226,685

116,117

252,795

MY2014*

155,050

705,390

33,424

25,353

*June 2014-January 2015

Stocks:

TMO has around 4.3 MMT of elevator capacity and is investing in modernizing its elevators. TMO is also leasing modern elevators from the private sector.

TMO and the Turkish Union of Chambers in Polatlı opened a licensed warehouse system in 2011 with 40,000 MT of grain storage capacity. Currently, 6 companies have about 275,000 MT of licensed warehouse capacity.

TMO and the private sector have approximately 2 MMT of stocks of wheat as they enter the new harvest. TMO has 285,000 MT of corn, 200,000 MT of barley, 45,000 MT paddy rice.

Policy:(please see Policy at Turkey. Wheat Annual. Apr 2015)

S&D CORN

Corn

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Sep 2013

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Turkey

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

580

580

550

550

0

600

Beginning Stocks

291

291

642

642

0

292

Production

5,100

5,100

4,800

4,800

0

5,800

MY Imports

1,304

1,304

1,500

1,500

0

1,200

TY Imports

1,381

1,381

1,500

1,500

0

1,200

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,695

6,695

6,942

6,942

0

7,292

MY Exports

253

253

50

50

0

150

TY Exports

252

252

50

50

0

150

Feed and Residual

4,800

4,800

5,550

5,550

0

5,500

FSI Consumption

1,000

1,000

1,050

1,050

0

1,050

Total Consumption

5,800

5,800

6,600

6,600

0

6,550

Ending Stocks

642

642

292

292

0

592

Total Distribution

6,695

6,695

6,942

6,942

0

7,292

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA