Production:

MY 2015/16 oilseed meal production is forecast at 2.6 MMT, down ten percent from MY 2014/15 due to the anticipated decrease in oilseed production. Larger carry-in stocks will help to augment the lower production. Cottonseed meal is by far the dominant meal, accounting for about two-thirds of production. Rapeseed is next, but soybean meal production could soon surpass rapeseed meal given the favorable tariff on soybean imports. Changes in 2013/14 production estimates reflect final estimates from the Pakistan Solvent Extractors' Association.

Consumption:

MY 2015/16 meal requirements are forecast to increase to 3.5 MMT, about 200,000 MT above the revised 2014/15 estimate. Demand for oilseed meals is expected to grow due to the anticipated expansion of the poultry, livestock, and aquaculture sectors. Pakistan's poultry meat production is expected to grow by more than 10 percent annually. The layer industry is also expanding rapidly as it is able to provide a relatively cheap protein source. Several poultry feed manufacturers have started producing dairy feed to meet the needs of Pakistan's more progressive dairy farmers. The revised estimate for 2013/14 reflects final data from the Pakistan Solvent Extractor's Association.

Trade:

Pakistan's meal imports are comprised of soybean meal from India, the United States, and South America. During MY 2015/16 Pakistan is expected to import 740,000 MT of meal, largely unchanged from the revised 2013/14 (based on official data) and 2014/15 estimates. India has been the dominant supplier in the past, but importers have broadened their sourcing to other suppliers of late. Pricing has been a significant factor in the shift to other sources. While meal demand is growing, the increase in the soymeal tariff may limit the growth in meal imports.

Total Oil Meal Pakistan

2013

2014

2015

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

5,290

4,825

5,865

5,815

0

5,230

Beginning Stocks

185

185

160

160

0

420

Production

2,532

2,280

2,850

2,865

0

2,590

MY Imports

1,010

700

915

740

0

750

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,727

3,165

3,925

3,765

0

3,760

MY Exports

200

100

110

110

0

80

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

3,367

2,905

3,662

3,235

0

3,530

Total Dom. Cons.

3,367

2,905

3,662

3,235

0

3,530

Ending Stocks

160

160

153

420

0

150

Total Distribution

3,727

3,165

3,925

3,765

0

3,760

CY Imports

700

600

680

680

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

110

110

110

110

0

80

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

2,904

2,467

3,138

2,900

0

2,768

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meal, Cottonseed Pakistan

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

3,650

3,700

3,850

4,100

0

3,800

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.

0.4595

0.

0.4634

0

0.4605

Beginning Stocks

135

135

110

110

0

200

Production

1,700

1,700

1,790

1,900

0

1,750

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,835

1,835

1,900

2,010

0

1,950

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,725

1,725

1,790

1,810

0

1,850

Total Dom. Cons.

1,725

1,725

1,790

1,810

0

1,850

Ending Stocks

110

110

110

200

0

100

Total Distribution

1,835

1,835

1,900

2,010

0

1,950

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

1,398

1,398

1,450

1,467

0

1,499

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meal, Rapeseed Pakistan

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

870

700

1,100

1,120

0

650

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

1.

0.5714

1.

0.5804

0

0.5846

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

50

Production

510

400

642

650

0

380

MY Imports

100

50

40

40

0

50

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

610

450

682

690

0

480

MY Exports

200

100

110

110

0

80

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

410

350

572

530

0

400

Total Dom. Cons.

410

350

572

530

0

400

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

50

0

0

Total Distribution

610

450

682

690

0

480

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

110

110

110

110

0

80

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

292

249

407

377

0

285

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meal, Sunflowerseed Pakistan

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

770

425

815

395

0

380

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.

0.4235

0.

0.4177

0

0.4211

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

322

180

340

165

0

160

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

322

180

340

165

0

160

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

322

180

340

165

0

160

Total Dom. Cons.

322

180

340

165

0

160

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

322

180

340

165

0

160

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

304

170

321

156

0

151

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meal, Soybean Pakistan

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

0

0

100

200

0

400

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.

0.

1.

0.75

0

0.75

Beginning Stocks

50

50

50

50

0

150

Production

0

0

78

150

0

300

MY Imports

910

650

875

700

0

700

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

960

700

1,003

900

0

1,150

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

910

650

960

750

0

1,100

Total Dom. Cons.

910

650

960

750

0

1,100

Ending Stocks

50

50

43

150

0

50

Total Distribution

960

700

1,003

900

0

1,150

CY Imports

700

600

680

680

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

910

650

960

750

0

1,100