PRODUCTION

Soybeans:In MY 2015/16, FAS Cairo forecasts that soybean area and production will remain unchanged from MY 2014/15 at 8,000 hectares (ha) and 20,000 metric tons (MT), respectively. While currently stable the area and production has declined by more than fifty percent compared to what it was seven years ago. The most important variables that have led to the decline in cultivated area are production costs, farm gate price and the net revenue of the crop per hectare compared to more profitable summer vegetable crops. The Agriculture Research Center (ARC) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation (MALR) is the authority responsible for the production and marketing of certified soybean seed. Soybean varieties Giza 21 and Giza 83 are cultivated in the Delta; Giza 22 and Giza 35 are cultivated in Middle and Upper Egypt, and Giza 111 is being successfully cultivated in the newly reclaimed areas in the New Valley Governorate in Upper Egypt. Continued research seeks to improve yields, which nationally average 2.5 MT/ha.

Sunflower Seeds: MY 2015/16, sunflower seed planted area and production will remain constant from MY 2014/15 at 7,000 ha and 17,000 MT, respectively. Sunflower seed is planted in the Delta during March and in Middle and Upper Egypt during June and July. Despite the crop's adaptability to various types of soils including those with high salinity, area and production have declined in the past ten years and are expected to remain unchanged in the coming years due to the crop's low return compared to other summer vegetable crops and corn. The two main sunflower seed varieties currently planted are Sakha 53 and Giza 102 with an average yield of 2.4 MT/ha.

CONSUMPTION

Soybeans:In MY 2015/16, post forecasts soybean consumption to reach a record 1.98 MMT. Post is revising MY2014/15 soybean consumption upward to 1.88 MMT or up 2.7 percent from USDA's official estimate. The increase in consumption is a direct result of the rising demand for meal and oil, which has led to the expansion in the crushing capacity of the modern crushing plants.

Operations are dominated by two large companies: Cargill and Alex Seeds. These two account for more than 80% of the total crush, while eleven other medium-sized firms account for the remainder. Crush capacity is 8,000 MT/day, although facilities have operated at only 76 percent capacity in MY 2014/15. Due to new modern processing lines being assembled in the existing factories and additional other investments likely to happen in the sector, the operational capacity is expected to increase by 5 percent in MY2015/16.

Egypt's domestic consumption of soybeans for food use will remain at 17,000 MT in MY 2015/16. The food processing industry uses soybeans and soy-based ingredients to enhance nutritional quality of bread and two popular legume foods (lentil soup and falafel) The Food Technology Research Institute at ARC conducts research on and markets soybean food products.

Sunflower Seed:MY 2015/16's sunflower seed consumption for crushing is forecast at 66,000 MT, unchanged from MY 2014/15. Imported sunflower seed is largely processed by the public sector to extract sunflower oil used in Egypt's food subsidy program. In contrast, domestic sunflower seeds are crushed by artisanal local crushers close to the production centers in Middle and Upper Egypt. Consumption of sunflower seeds for food use is forecast to increase 14.2 percent to 8,000 MT in MY 2015/16. Sunflower seeds are roasted and seasoned, and sold to consumers on an in-shell basis. The increase is attributed to a growing segment of the urban population seeking healthier, more nutritious snacks, which jibes with the perception of sunflower seeds.

TRADE

Soybeans: Post forecasts soybean imports in MY 2015/16 to reach a record 1.97 MMT. MY 2014/15 imports are revised upward to 1.9 MMT from USDA's official estimate of 1.82MMT or approximately 4.4 percent. The increase is due to rising demand from consumers who are seeking healthier cooking oil options, and the growth in protein based feed demand that is expected to expand by 4-5 percent in MY2015/16.

For MY 2014/15 as a whole, U.S soybeans are likely to have the largest market share at 700,000 MT. Other suppliers include Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and Ukraine. The current average price for imported soybeans is about $450/MT C&F Alexandria. The current price of local soybeans is about $472/MT.

Sunflower Seeds: Imports of sunflower seed in MY 2015/16 are forecast to reach 60,000 MT, unchanged from MY 2014/15. China is the leading supplier, followed by the United States, and Ukraine.

Oilseed, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Egypt

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

8

8

8

8

0

8

Area Harvested

8

8

8

8

0

8

Beginning Stocks

51

51

48

48

0

81

Production

20

20

20

20

0

20

MY Imports

1,694

1,694

1,820

1,900

0

1,970

MY Imp. from U.S.

646

646

675

700

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,765

1,765

1,888

1,968

0

2,071

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1,680

1,680

1,800

1,850

0

1,950

Food Use Dom. Cons.

17

17

17

17

0

17

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

20

20

20

20

0

20

Total Dom. Cons.

1,717

1,717

1,837

1,887

0

1,987

Ending Stocks

48

48

51

81

0

84

Total Distribution

1,765

1,765

1,888

1,968

0

2,071

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Egypt

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

6

6

7

7

0

7

Area Harvested

6

6

7

7

0

7

Beginning Stocks

6

6

0

0

0

1

Production

16

16

17

17

0

17

MY Imports

53

53

60

60

0

60

MY Imp. from U.S.

3

3

3

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

75

75

77

77

0

78

MY Exports

3

3

3

3

0

3

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

65

65

66

66

0

66

Food Use Dom. Cons.

7

7

7

7

0

8

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

72

72

73

73

0

74

Ending Stocks

0

0

1

1

0

1

Total Distribution

75

75

77

77

0

78

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0