PRODUCTION

Overview:Soybean meal is primarily used in the formulation of animal feed in the poultry and aquaculture sectors. Egypt has more than 140 privately owned poultry feed mills that supply more than 95 percent of the domestic market's demand. The feed mills usually produce a poultry feed consisting of 70 percent yellow corn, 19.4 percent soybean meal, 3.4 percent wheat bran, 1.9 percent broiler concentrates (fish or meat meals), and pre-mixes. In the aquaculture feed industry, 73 privately owned feed mills cover 90 percent of feed demand, producing both conventionally pelleted feeds (80–85 percent) and extruded feeds (15–20 percent). Most of the feed –85 percent– is formulated to contain 25 percent crude protein. The most common recipes for fish feed production uses soybean meal at 30–40 percent and fish meal at 5–22 percent.

Egypt's poultry industry consists of over 15,000 farms, with investments of more than LE 25 billion ($3.2 billion), accounting for 85 percent of domestic consumption, and employing over 2 million workers. Post expects more investments are likely to occur in the poultry and dairy sectors in the coming years meaning more demand for feed ingredients. A swift recovery of the poultry industry is increasing feed demand by approximately four-five percent year-over-year.

Egyptian fish farming is a growing industry, ranking number seven worldwide, but number two in tilapia production. Annual growth in the fish farming sector is currently estimated at four-five percent driving the need for more high quality feed. Industry sources also indicate that there will be new public-private investments and private investments in marine fish farming alongside the Suez Canal during in the coming years.

Soybean Meal: MY 2015/16 soybean meal production is forecast at a record 1.54 MMT. MY 2014/15 soybean meal production is revised upward to 1.46 MMT from USDA's official estimate of 1.42MMT or 2.8 percent. Locally owned crushers are currently meeting 55 percent of Egypt's soybean meal requirements, but, given unused capacity, should be able to cover a larger percentage of local demand. Soybeans crushers are 90 percent privately owned and 10 percent publicly owned.

Sunflower Meal: Post forecasts sunflower seed meal production in MY 2015/16 at 37,000 MT, unchanged from MY 2014/15. The sunflower seed extraction rate is 56%, reflecting the inclusion of the seed's shell in the meal. This result in a high fiber meal, which must be blended and mixed with the more easily digestible soybean meal.

CONSUMPTION

Soybean Meal: MY 2015/16 soybean meal consumption is forecast at 2.67 MMT. MY2014/15 soybean meal consumption is revised upward to 2.55 MMT or 3.4 percent from USDA's official estimate of 2.46 MMT. Soybean meal is the major protein source in animal feed production. In MY2014/15 approximately 1.3 MMT of soybean meal was used in poultry feed, 550,000 MT used in feeder and dairy cattle feed, and 700,000 MT used in aquaculture feed.

Sunflower Meal: Post's forecast of sunflower meal use is 132,000 MT in MY 2015/16 increasing by approximately 4 percent from Post's estimate of 127,000 MT in MY 2014/15, revised downward from USDA official estimate of 137,000MT in MY 2014/15. Reduction in consumption in sunflower meal in MY 2014/15 is related to a decrease in sunflower meals used in various feed mixes by the aquaculture sector as mid-size producers are trying to gradually shift from extensive and semi-intensive low-input systems to more intensive, high-quality feed systems. This will likely increase demand for more high quality soy based fish feeds at the expense of sunflower meal.

TRADE

Soybean Meal: MY 2015/16 imports of soybean meal are forecast at 1.15MMT, an increase of 4.5 percent from post's estimate in MY2014/15 of 1.1MMT, revised upward from USDA official estimate by 5.2 percent. Imports are likely to increase in the coming marketing year due to increasing demand for protein based meals in the poultry, fish and livestock sectors. The major suppliers of soybean meal to Egypt in CY 2014 were Argentina with 925,000 MT, and United States with 152,000 MT.

Sunflower Meal: Imports of sunflower seed meal in MY 2015/16 are forecast at 95,000 MT. MY 2014/15 imports are revised downward from USDA's estimate by 10 percent to 90,000 MT. The reduction in imports of sunflower meal in MY 2014/15 is partly attributed to major importers' dollar constraints due to Central Bank of Egypt's (CBE) new rules on dollar denominated deposits; as such, importers prefer to use their dollars buying soybeans and soybean meal.

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Egypt

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1,680

1,680

1,800

1,850

0

1,950

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.7887

0.7887

0.7889

0.7892

0.0000

0.7897

Beginning Stocks

76

76

65

65

0

73

Production

1,325

1,325

1,420

1,460

0

1,540

MY Imports

1,116

1,116

1,045

1,100

0

1,150

MY Imp. from U.S.

202

202

150

300

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,517

2,517

2,530

2,625

0

2,763

MY Exports

2

2

2

2

0

2

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2,450

2,450

2,465

2,550

0

2,670

Total Dom. Cons.

2,450

2,450

2,465

2,550

0

2,670

Ending Stocks

65

65

63

73

0

91

Total Distribution

2,517

2,517

2,530

2,625

0

2,763

SME

2,450

2,450

2,465

2,550

0

2,670

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0

Meal, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Egypt

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

65

65

66

66

0

66

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.5692

0.5692

0.5606

0.5606

0.0000

0.5606

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

37

37

37

37

0

37

MY Imports

85

85

100

90

0

95

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

122

122

137

127

0

132

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

122

122

137

127

0

132

Total Dom. Cons.

122

122

137

127

0

132

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

122

122

137

127

0

132

SME

115

115

129

120

0

125

TS=TD

0

0

0

0

0

0