General Information

NOTE: USDA unofficial data excludes Crimean production and exports. However, as of June 2014, Russian official statistics (ROSSTAT) began incorporating Crimean production and trade data into their official estimates. Where possible, data reported by FAS Moscow is exclusive of information attributable to Crimea.

Executive Summary:

Demand for protein feed continues to grow in Russia. This is consistent with the expansion of poultry and swine population at large integrated farms, which use more high protein compound feeds instead of grain-based feeds. Moreover, in 2014 the government stated that it will pay special attention to financial support for these livestock farms, and their demand for protein feeds is forecasted to grow.

FAS/Moscow forecasts total crush of Russia's three major oilseeds at 14.15 MMT in MY 2015/16, which is a 4.4 percent increase from the estimated 13.55 MMT in MY 2014/15. This includes 9.0 MMT of sunflowerseed (0.5 MMT more than last year), 3.9 MMT of soybeans (up 0.1 MMT) and 1.25 MMT of rapeseed (same as last year). Russia's total domestic production of the three major oilseed meals will increase to 7.15 MMT, from an estimated 6.85 MMT in MY 2014/15, including 3.35 MMT of sunflowerseed meal, 3.05 MMT of soybean meal, and 0.75 MMT of rapeseed meal.

FAS/Moscow forecasts nearly the same level of soybean meal imports in MY 2015/16 -- 0.5 MMT -- as in MY 2014/15. Despite high demand in soybean meal and the removal of import duties in 2012 as a result of WTO accession, soymeal imports will be limited by the weaker ruble and expanding Russian capacity to crush whole soybeans. Due to the soft ruble and increased crushing capacity Russia will continue to export oilseed meals, and FAS/Moscow forecasts a further increase of these exports to 2.5 MMT in MY 2015/16 from the estimated 2.4 MMT in MY 2014/15, that was already at an historic high. The forecast for exports includes: 1.5 MMT of sunflowerseed meal, the same as last year; 0.7 MMT of soybean meal, 0.1 MMT more than last year; and 0.3 MMT of rapeseed meal, the same as last year.

Russia: Consolidated PSD for Major Meals for MY 2015/16, 1,000 MT

Sunflowerseeds

Soybean

Rapeseed

Fish Meal

TOTAL

Crush

9,000

3,900

1,250

550

14,700

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.372

0.782

0.596

0.264

Beginning Stocks

47

93

0

2

142

Production

3,350

3,050

745

145

7,290

MY Imports

0

500

0

43

543

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

30

0

0

30

MY Imp. from EU

0

100

0

0

100

Total Supply

3,397

3,643

745

190

7,975

MY Exports

1,500

700

300

50

2,550

MY Exp. to EU

900

40

200

0

1,140

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,800

2,900

445

140

5,285

Total Dom. Cons.

1,800

2,900

445

140

5,285

Ending Stocks

97

43

0

0

140

Total Distribution

3,397

3,643

745

190

7,975

Note: The above table is composed of PSD forecast for each meal despite differing marketing years.

Production:

FAS/Moscow forecast Russia's total domestic production of the three major oilseed meals in MY 2015/16 to increase to 7.15 MMT from an estimated 6.85 MMT in MY 2014/15. This will include 3.35 MMT of sunflowerseed meal (6 percent increase from the estimated production in MY 2014/15); 3.05 MMT of soybean meal (a 3 percent increase from the estimated production in MY 2014/15); and 0.75 MMT of rapeseed meal (the same level as last year).

Consumption:

Domestic demand for protein feeds, including oilseed meals, is strengthening along with the development of the domestic poultry and swine industries and an increasing concentration of poultry and pork production at large agro-holding companies. Industrial methods of feeding envisage replacement of concentrated feeds (grain based) by compound feeds that include protein meal, vitamins, and other nutrients.

FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia's total domestic consumption of the three major oilseed meals (sunflowerseed, soybean and rapeseed) and fish meal to increase to 5.3 MMT in MY 2015/16 compared to an estimated 5.1 MMT consumption in MY 2014/15. Soybean meal will comprise over 54.9 percent of total consumption, with sunflowerseed meal at 34.1 percent, rapeseed meal at 8.4 percent, and fish meal at only 2.6 percent.

Trade:

Imports

Most of Russia's imports of oilseed meals consist of soybean meal. Soybean meal imports are driven by consistent demand of Russian poultry and livestock industries in protein feeds, and despite the soft ruble, imports of soybean meal will remain the same as in MY 2014/15 – 500,000 MT. From September 2014 through February 2015, Russia imported 229,102 MT of soybean meal. In the same period in MY 2013/14, Russia imported 232,002 MT of soybean meal. Russia's major suppliers of soybean meal in MY 2014/15 are Latvia (74,400 MT were imported from Latvia from September 2014 through February 2015), Germany (41,400 MT), Argentina (31,700 MT), Brazil (24,900 MT), Lithuania (20,500 MT), and 6,000 MT were shipped from the United States.

Exports

Due to the soft ruble and increased crushing capacity, Russia will continue exports of oilseed meals, and FAS/Moscow forecasts the further increase of these exports to 2.5 MMT in MY 2015/16 from the estimated 2.4 MMT in MY 2014/15, that was already an historic high. The forecast for exports includes: 1.5 MMT of sunflowerseed meal (the same as last year); 0.7 MMT of soybean meal (0.1 MMT more than last year); and 0.3 MMT of rapeseed meal (the same as last year).

FAS/Moscow forecasts sunflowerseed meal exports in MY 2015/16 at 1.5 MMT, the same as in MY 2014/15. Russian sunflowerseed meal exports in MY 2014/15 were driven by the soft ruble. Despite a lower crop and decreased crush, from September 2014 through February 2015, Russia exported 936,400 MT of sunflowerseed meal, 16,000 MT more than in the same period last year. FAS/Moscow estimates Russia's meal exports in MY 2014/15 at 1.5 MMT. From September 2014 through February 2015, 82 percent of sunflowerseed meal exports were shipped to 5 countries: Turkey (286,600 MT); Latvia (180,200 MT); Italy (141,300 MT); Denmark (93,800 MT); and Spain (62,200 MT).

FAS/Moscow forecasts soybean meal exports in MY 2015/16 at 600,000 MT, the same as in MY 2014/15. FAS/Moscow forecasts that the Russian poultry production will increase by 3 to 4 percent in 2015, and domestic demand for soybean meal will remains strong, however, the soft ruble, the major driver of exports in MY 2014/15, is not expected to be as steep or as rapid as in MY 2014/15. FAS/Moscow increased its estimate of soybean meal exports in MY 2014/15 to 0.6 MMT from 0.5 MMT exports in MY 2013/14. From September 2014 through February 2015, Russia exported 266,770 MT of soybean meal, 39 percent more than in the same period in MY 2013/14 (191,800 MT). Over 73 percent of all soybean meal exports were shipped to the EU, including 93,100 MT shipped to Poland, 51,600 MT shipped to Netherlands, 19,300 MT shipped to Denmark, 13,900 MT shipped to Sweden, 7,700 MT shipped to Finland, 5,600 MT shipped to Norway, and 2,800 MT shipped to Latvia. In the same period 35,800 MT were shipped to Belarus and 33,300 MT were shipped to Uzbekistan. According to industry analysts, the bulk of soybean meal shipments to Europe were sent from the crushing facilities of Sodruzhestvo in Kaliningrad.

FAS/Moscow forecasts rapeseed meal export in MY 2015/16 at 0.3 MMT, at the same level as in MY 2014/15. Almost 80 percent of rapeseed meal is exported to the EU countries.

Policy:

Imports of soybean meal (HS number 2304 000001) are duty free, imports of soybean cake and other products of extraction of soybeans, except soybean meal (HS number 2304 000009), are subject to a duty of 2.5 percent of the customs value. Import duties on cotton meal (HS number 2306 10), flax meal (HS number 2306 20), rapeseed meal (HS numbers 2306 41 and 2306 49), and sunflowerseed meal (HS number 2306 30) are subject to a duty of 5 percent of the customs value. Exports of all these meals are duty-free.

Meal, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Sep 2013

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Russia

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

9,330

9,330

8,500

8,500

0

9,000

Beginning Stocks

0

0

87

87

0

47

Production

3,466

3,466

3,160

3,160

0

3,350

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,466

3,466

3,247

3,247

0

3,397

MY Exports

1,729

1,729

1,450

1,500

0

1,500

MY Exp. to EU

900

900

1,000

800

0

900

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,650

1,650

1,750

1,700

0

1,800

Total Dom. Cons.

1,650

1,650

1,750

1,700

0

1,800

Ending Stocks

87

87

47

47

0

97

Total Distribution

3,466

3,466

3,247

3,247

0

3,397

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Sep 2013

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Russia

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

3,500

3,300

3,800

3,800

0

3,900

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

1

1

1

1

0

1

Beginning Stocks

10

10

46

43

0

93

Production

2,750

2,600

2,995

2,950

0

3,050

MY Imports

527

527

500

500

0

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

15

30

10

30

0

30

MY Imp. from EU

150

150

150

100

0

100

Total Supply

3,287

3,137

3,541

3,493

0

3,643

MY Exports

491

491

550

600

0

700

MY Exp. to EU

60

60

70

450

0

40

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2,750

2,603

2,900

2,800

0

2,900

Total Dom. Cons.

2,750

2,603

2,900

2,800

0

2,900

Ending Stocks

46

43

91

93

0

43

Total Distribution

3,287

3,137

3,541

3,493

0

3,643

1000 MT, PERCENT

Meal, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Russia

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

1,220

1,220

1,250

1,250

0

1,250

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

1

1

1

1

0

1

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

726

726

743

743

0

745

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

726

726

743

743

0

745

MY Exports

263

263

300

300

0

300

MY Exp. to EU

200

200

200

200

0

200

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

463

463

443

443

0

445

Total Dom. Cons.

463

463

443

443

0

445

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

726

726

743

743

0

745

1000 MT, PERCENT

Meal, Fish

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Russia

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Catch For Reduction

565

565

550

550

0

550

Beginning Stocks

4

4

2

2

0

2

Production

145

145

145

145

0

145

MY Imports

37

37

41

41

0

43

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

186

186

188

188

0

190

MY Exports

49

49

50

50

0

50

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

135

135

136

136

0

140

Total Dom. Cons.

135

135

136

136

0

140

Ending Stocks

2

2

2

2

0

0

Total Distribution

186

186

188

188

0

190

1000 MT, PERCENT