General Information

NOTE: USDA unofficial data excludes Crimean production and exports. However, as of June 2014, Russian official statistics (ROSSTAT) began incorporating Crimean production and trade data into their official estimates. Where possible, data reported by FAS Moscow is exclusive of information attributable to Crimea.

Executive Summary:

Sunflowerseeds remain the primary oilseed crop in Russia, and thus crushers' main product is still vegetable oil, while meal remains a secondary product. Sunflowerseed oil dominates domestic human consumption of vegetable oils. FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia's total vegetable oil production in MY 2014/15 at 4.9 MMT, 0.2 MMT more than in MY 2014/15 due to, first of all, increased crush of sunflowerseeds. This production will include 3.7 MMT of sunflowerseed oil (FAS/Moscow estimates sunflowerseed oil production in MY 2014/15 at 3.5 MMT), 0.49 MMT of rapeseed oil (the same as last year), and almost 0.7 MMT of soybean oil (a 0.02 MMT increase from last year). Russia's imports of palm oil are forecast to remain at 0.7 MMT in MY 2015/16, the same as the previous year. Palm oil is the second largest vegetable oil consumed in Russia.

There is no official data on domestic consumption of vegetable oils by type of oil, but industry analysts estimate that sunflowerseed oil dominates in direct food use consumption (including the production of mayonnaise), while palm oil is gaining a larger share in the food processing sector (including in the confectionary industry, in spreads, in margarine, etc.). FAS/Moscow forecasts a further increase in Russia's exports of vegetable oils, to 2.25 MMT in MY 2015/16 from estimated 2.13 MMT in MY 2014/15. Sunflowerseed oil exports are forecast at 1.55 MMT (up 0.1 MMT from last year), soybean oil exports are forecast at 0.4 MMT (up 0.02 MMT from last year), and rapeseed oil exports are forecast at 0.3 MMT (the same as in MY 2014/15). Exports of sunflowerseed oil and rapeseed oil will be stimulated by the soft ruble. Soybean oil exports will depend primarily on imports of soybeans, because the major Russian importer of soybeans (company Sodruzhestvo located in Kaliningrad) sells most of its meal in the domestic market, and sells soybean oil in foreign markets.

Russia: Consolidated PSD for Major Vegetable Oils for MY 2015/16, 1,000 MT

POST MY 2015/16

Sunflowerseeds

Soybean

Rapeseed

Palm

TOTAL

Crush

9,000

3,900

1,250

14,150

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.413

0.1782

0.392

Beginning Stocks

82

33

30

68

213

Production

3,720

695

490

0

4,905

MY Imports

10

5

0

700

715

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,812

733

520

768

5,833

MY Exports

1,550

400

300

0

2,250

MY Exp. to EU

400

130

160

0

690

Industrial Dom. Cons.

370

35

20

150

575

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,850

260

180

550

2,840

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,220

295

200

700

3,415

Ending Stocks

42

38

20

68

168

Total Distribution

3,812

733

520

768

5,833

Production:

FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia's total vegetable oil production (sunflowerseed, soybean and rapeseed) in MY 2015/16 at 4.9 MMT, 0.2 MMT more than in MY 2014/15.

Sunflowerseeds remain the primary oilseed crop in Russia, and thus crushers' main product is still vegetable oil (sunflowerseed oil), while meal remains a secondary product. Production of sunflowerseed oil is forecast at 3.7 MMT, 0.2 MMT up from the production estimate of 3.5 MMT in MY 2014/15.

Production of soybean oil is increasing, along with the growth of domestic soybean production and imports. However, the share of soybean oil in domestic consumption does not exceed 9-10 percent of the total domestic consumption. Consumers prefer sunflowerseed oil to soybean oil and other vegetable oils in food consumption. FAS/Moscow forecasts production of soybean oil at 0.7 MMT, almost the same as estimated in MY 2014/15. Production of rapeseed oil is forecast at the same level as in MY 2014/15 - 0.49 MMT.

Consumption:

Russia's per-capita vegetable oil consumption (food and industrial) is estimated from 23 liters to 25 liters per capita per year, lower than in Europe and in the United States. However, both food use and industrial processing use have stabilized as of MY 2012/13 at approximately from 2.7 MMT to 2.8 MMT for food use and approximately 0.6 MMT for industrial use. The soft ruble in MY 2014/15 stimulated exports of vegetable oils, but domestic consumption still comprises almost 60 percent of Russian's total supply (production and imports) of vegetable oils. There is no official data on the domestic consumption of vegetable oils by type of oil, but industry analysts estimate that sunflowerseed oil dominates direct food use consumption (including in production of mayonnaise), while palm oil is gaining a bigger share in food processing use (including in the confectionary industry, in spreads, in margarine, etc.).

FAS/Moscow increased the forecast of domestic food consumption of sunflowerseed oil to 1.85 MMT. Russian tradition favors the use of sunflowerseed oil. However, food price inflation and the relatively poor economic situation, which according to estimates of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, will not improve in 2015, will stimulate consumers to use more vegetable oil in food.

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has indicated that the Russian economy will decline in 2015. With a presumption that the average annual petroleum oil prices will equal $50 per barrel, MED expects the GDP to contract by 3 percent, consumer prices to rise 12.2 percent, and real wages to decline by 9.6 percent over the course of 2015. Russian bank VTB Capital reportedly estimates that 40 percent of Russian income was spent on foodstuffs in 2014, up from 36 percent in 2013. However, MED forecasts disposable income to decline 6.3 percent over 2015. Given the economic volatility in the market, and the fact that food prices as of February 1, 2015, have increased 20.7 percent year-on-year, it remains to be seen to what extent Russian consumer demand will continue to contract.

FAS/Moscow forecasts vegetable oil domestic consumption in MY 2015/16, to increase to 3.4 MMT from the estimated 3.3 MMT in MY 2014/15 due to a slight increase in food consumption from 2.7 MMT to 2.8 MMT. Usually consumer prices of vegetable oils are lower than prices of animal fats and oils, and in tight economic conditions consumers prefer vegetable oils to animal fats, such as butter. Food processors also expand use of vegetable oils in food products, and replace animal fats and oils with vegetable oils where possible. With the poor condition of the Russian economy and the high food inflation in MY 2014/15, an increase in vegetable oil food consumption has already been stimulated. An increase has been seen from an estimated 2.6 MMT in MY 2013/14 to 2.7 MMT in MY 2014/15 and is forecast to increase further to 2.8 MMT in MY 2015/16.

Trade:

FAS/Moscow forecasts further increases in Russia's exports of vegetable oils, to 2.25 MMT in MY 2015/16 from an estimated 2.13 MMT in MY 2014/15. Sunflowerseed oil exports are forecast at 1.55 MMT (up 0.1 MMT from last year), soybean oil exports are forecast at 0.4 MMT (up 0.02 MMT from last year), and rapeseed oil exports are forecast at 0.3 MMT (the same as in MY 2014/15. Exports of sunflowerseed oil and rapeseed oil will be stimulated by the soft ruble. Soybean oil exports will depend primarily on imports of soybeans, because the major Russian importer of soybeans (company Sodruzhestvo located in Kaliningrad) sells most of its meal to the domestic market, and sells soybean oil to foreign markets.

Sunflowerseed oil

FAS/Moscow forecasts sunflowerseed oil exports in MY 2015/16 at 1.55 MMT, a 7 percent increase from MY 2014/15 due to bigger crush. Traders continue developing foreign markets for sunflowerseed oil, and in MY 2014/15 they may export 1.45 MMT of sunflowerseed oil despite the relatively low sunflowerseed crop. From September 2014 through February 2015, Russia exported almost 729,200 MT of sunflowerseed oil, including 512,100 MT of crude oil and 217,100 MT of refined oil.

Soybean oil

FAS/Moscow forecasts that soybean oil exports in MY 0215/16 will continue to increase steadily from 380,000 MT in MY 2014/15 to 0.4 MMT. The major driver of these exports will be company Sodruzhestvo which crushes imported soybeans and exports the oil. From September 2014 through February 2015, Russia exported 218,600 MT of soybeans. The major destinations of soybean oil exports were Algeria – 97,100 MT, Tunisia – 39,200 MT, Egypt – 19,000 MT, and Iran – 10,000 MT.

Rapeseed oil

FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia's exports of rapeseed oil in MY 2015/16 at 0.3 MMT, the same level as in MY 2014/15. From July 2014 through February 2015, Russia exported 255,400 MT of rapeseed oil. Russia's major markets for rapeseed oil were Norway (98,000 MT), Lithuania (38,600 MT), and Latvia (18,800 MT).

Palm oil

Imports of palm oil in MY 2015/16 are forecast at the same level as in MY 2014/15 – 0.7 MMT. Palm oil has become an important ingredient in many food products in Russia, replacing animal fats and oils, and some expensive vegetable oil. However, imports flattened in MY 2013/14, and in MY 2014/15. For MY 2015/16, Post forecasts that Russia's imports may be curbed by the soft ruble and by stricter labeling requirements for food products. Foods containing mostly palm oil cannot be labeled and sold as a "dairy product" in Russia.

Policy:

Beginning July 1, 2013, Russia began regulating production of vegetable oils via safety and quality requirements as stipulated in the Customs Union Technical Regulation (TR) on Oils and Fats adopted by the Customs Union Commission No. 883 on December 9, 2011

Oil, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Sep 2013

Sep 2014

Sep 2016

Russia

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

9,330

9,330

8,500

8,500

0

9,000

Beginning Stocks

199

199

172

172

0

82

Production

3,851

3,851

3,510

3,510

0

3,720

MY Imports

12

12

10

10

0

10

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4,062

4,062

3,692

3,692

0

3,812

MY Exports

1,750

1,750

1,450

1,450

0

1,550

MY Exp. to EU

450

450

400

400

0

400

Industrial Dom. Cons.

360

360

370

370

0

370

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,750

1,750

1,760

1,760

0

1,850

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

30

30

30

30

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,140

2,140

2,160

2,160

0

2,220

Ending Stocks

172

172

82

82

0

42

Total Distribution

4,062

4,062

3,692

3,692

0

3,812

1000 MT, PERCENT

Oil, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Sep 2013

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Russia

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

3,500

3,300

3,800

3,800

0

3,900

Beginning Stocks

52

52

40

14

0

33

Production

629

573

680

680

0

695

MY Imports

4

4

2

2

0

5

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

8

8

8

0

0

0

Total Supply

685

629

722

696

0

733

MY Exports

332

332

350

380

0

400

MY Exp. to EU

160

160

150

120

0

130

Industrial Dom. Cons.

33

33

33

33

0

35

Food Use Dom. Cons.

280

250

300

250

0

260

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

313

283

333

283

0

295

Ending Stocks

40

14

39

33

0

38

Total Distribution

685

629

722

696

0

733

1000 MT, PERCENT

Oil, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Russia

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

1,220

1,220

1,250

1,250

0

1,250

Beginning Stocks

45

45

29

29

0

30

Production

478

478

488

490

0

490

MY Imports

1

1

1

1

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

524

524

518

520

0

520

MY Exports

328

328

280

300

0

300

MY Exp. to EU

150

150

160

160

0

160

Industrial Dom. Cons.

20

20

20

20

0

20

Food Use Dom. Cons.

147

147

188

170

0

180

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

167

167

208

190

0

200

Ending Stocks

29

29

30

30

0

20

Total Distribution

524

524

518

520

0

520

1000 MT, PERCENT

Oil, Palm

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

May 2013

May 2014

May 2015

Russia

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

123

123

68

68

0

68

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

660

660

775

700

0

700

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

110

110

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

783

783

843

768

0

768

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

150

150

150

150

0

150

Food Use Dom. Cons.

565

565

550

550

0

550

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

715

715

700

700

0

700

Ending Stocks

68

68

143

68

0

68

Total Distribution

783

783

843

768

0

768

1000 HA, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT