Global Rice Production Below Consumption

Rice production is projected at a new record. Consumption is forecast to surpass production for the third year in a row, drawing down stocks to the lowest since 2007/08. Trade is projected to decline marginally, but still near-record. U.S. exports are projected higher on ample supplies and improved price competitiveness in the Western Hemisphere.

HIGHLIGHTS OF 2015/16

Global production is projected at a record 482 million tons. East and South Asia production rises driven by China, India, and Bangladesh. Southeast Asia is projected to harvest a record crop, boosting supplies and reducing import needs in the region. Africa's crop is expected to reach a record. In South America, production increases moderately for Argentina and Colombia, while unchanged for Brazil. The U.S. crop is forecast to be slightly smaller than a year ago based on reduced area. Global consumption continues to rise in all regions, except for the Caribbean, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Global ending stocks are projected to decline for the third consecutive year, and are the lowest since 2007/08. Combined ending stocks for Thailand and India, the top 2 exporters, are down 26 percent.

Selected Importers for 2016

Global trade declines marginally, but is still projected to be at a near-record level. China is forecast up 200,000 tons to a record 4.7 million, as lower prices in neighboring countries continue to make imports competitive. Nigeria is expected to decrease 1.0 million tons to 3.0 million as the country works down large carryover stocks. The Philippines is projected down 300,000 tons to 1.4 million, a result of record production as the country continues to move towards self-sufficiency.

Selected Exporters for 2016

Thailand is projected at 11.0 million tons, maintaining its place as the top exporter. The government continues to lower stocks via government-to-government sales and open tenders. India is forecast at 8.5 million tons, substantially lower than 2015 mainly due to smaller carryover stocks. Vietnam is steady at 6.7 million on continued demand from China and the Philippines. Pakistan is down slightly at 3.8 million tons. The United States is forecast at 3.5 million tons, marginally higher than 2015, on larger supplies and improved price competitiveness.

OVERVIEW OF 2014/15

Global production is up from last month as gains for Burma, Cote d'Ivoire, Japan, and Nigeria more than offset reductions for Bangladesh, Madagascar, and Thailand. Global consumption and trade are estimated higher with record imports for Nigeria. U.S. exports are unchanged.

Trade Changes in 2015

  • Burma's exports are up 250,000 tons to 1.85 million on a larger crop and demand from China.
  • India's exports are up 800,000 tons to 9.8 million reflecting a stronger pace to date.
  • Cote d'Ivoire's imports are cut 300,000 tons to 900,000 on larger production.
  • Nigeria's imports are up 500,000 tons to a record 4.0 million reflecting larger purchases before the April election.
  • Senegal's imports are trimmed 100,000 tons to 1.1 million on a larger crop.
  • Brazil's imports are down 100,000 tons to 600,000 on large supplies.