2015/16 Rice Supplies:In 2015/16 rice production area is estimated at 2.4 mHA, the same as the previous year. Production is also expected to remain the same at 8.3 mmt (milled). Prices have been steady over the past year and it's likely that farmers will neither expand nor reduce area.

2015/16 Rice Consumption: Rice consumption in 2015/16 is expected to be marginally higher based on population growth. There have been media reports that the slow-down of the economy and resulting increase in prices will force consumers to buy more rice, as opposed to wheat based products. However, Brazilians of all social classes already consume a lot of rice and it's unlikely that they will consume more, even if wheat prices increase. The average Brazilian consumes 43kg of rice per year and it is generally served for both lunch and dinner.

2015/16 Rice Trade: In 2015/16 rice exports are expected to decrease to 900,000 metric tons due to economic uncertainty in Venezuela, the largest market for Brazilian rice in 2014, and competition with the United States in Cuba, it's third largest market. Venezuela is prioritizing paying down its national debt and restricting the distribution of dollars to importers. Imports for 2015/16 are expected remain the same as the previous year at 700,000 metric tons. Brazil's main rice suppliers are other Mercosul countries, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina.

2014/15 Rice Supplies: Production for 2014/15 is forecast to be the same as the previous year at 8.3 mmt (milled). There was a slight delay in planting in the largest producing state of Rio Grande do Sul, but the majority of the crop was planted before the ideal planting window closed on November 20. There have been some instances of blast, but the damage will likely be mitigated by favorable weather. The reduction in area in the drought stricken region of the Southeast was offset by increases in productivity in nearly other every region.

2014/15 Rice Consumption:In 2014/15 rice consumption is forecast to remain stable at 7.9 mmt (milled). Rice continues to be a staple in the Brazilian diet. The growing middle class may consume less rice, but population growth continues to offset this trend.

2014/15 Rice Trade: Exports for 2014/15 are forecast to increase to 1 mmt, up 10 percent from the previous year due to the depreciating Brazilian currency making exports more competitive. In 2014, Venezuela was the largest buyer of Brazilian rice, followed by Senegal and Cuba respectively. The Brazilian rice industry has showed concern over warming economic relations between the United States and Cuba, fearing that U.S. rice could take market share away from Brazilian rice. Brazil has made significant investments in Cuban infrastructure to enhance trade with the Caribbean nation

S&D Rice, MilledBrazil

Rice, Milled

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Apr 2014

Apr 2015

Apr 2016

Brazil

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

2,400

2,400

2,400

2,400

0

2,450

Beginning Stocks

528

528

728

728

0

828

Milled Production

8,300

8,300

8,300

8,300

0

8,300

Rough Production

12,206

12,206

12,206

12,206

0

12,206

Milling Rate (.9999)

6,800

6,800

6,800

6,800

0

6,800

MY Imports

700

700

700

700

0

700

TY Imports

610

610

700

700

0

700

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

9,528

9,528

9,728

9,728

0

9,828

MY Exports

900

900

900

1,000

0

900

TY Exports

850

850

800

900

0

800

Consumption and Residual

7,900

7,900

7,900

7,900

0

7,950

Ending Stocks

728

728

928

828

0

978

Total Distribution

9,528

9,528

9,728

9,728

0

9,828

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Brazil Rice Imports

Brazil Import Statistics

Commodity: Rice, Group 58 (2012)

Partner Country

Quantity (Units: 1,000 mt)

CY2012

CY2013

CY2014

World

740.37

757.18

624.40

Paraguay

204.22

309.94

326.53

Uruguay

229.85

179.83

126.90

Argentina

281.43

239.54

96.15

Thailand

0.55

0.38

60.88

Guyana

0.00

0.04

6.56

Chile

0.00

0.00

4.46

Italy

3.18

3.66

2.21

Pakistan

0.08

0.00

0.31

Vietnam

19.97

19.94

0.17

United States

0.52

0.59

0.14

France

0.03

0.05

0.05

India

0.53

0.06

0.03

Spain

0.01

0.01

0.02

Portugal

0.00

0.00

0.01

Brazil Rice Exports

Brazil Export Statistics

Commodity: Rice, Group 58 (2012)

Partner Country

Quantity (Units: 1,000 mt)

CY2012

CY2013

CY2014

World

1152.71

918.05

929.92

Venezuela

103.42

148.07

141.52

Senegal

116.39

95.18

112.24

Cuba

116.02

107.47

105.02

Sierra Leone

98.75

74.84

84.59

Gambia

50.39

70.28

78.23

Nicaragua

47.03

105.43

65.74

Bolivia

10.13

25.79

50.68

Peru

29.94

14.81

32.46

Switzerland

51.07

20.30

31.53

Turkey

0.00

0.00

31.50

Benin

85.40

73.98

31.41

Iraq

28.65

0.00

30.00

Costa Rica

0.00

20.00

24.33

Netherlands

19.62

56.39

22.32

Angola

19.65

16.93

21.12

United States

7.39

8.41

14.60

Trinidad & Tobago

12.26

9.49

9.01

Saudi Arabia

1.86

3.91

8.73

Panama

10.45

27.86

7.81

Cape Verde

1.65

3.25

6.45

Chile

1.95

0.50

4.91

Netherlands Antilles

1.09

0.89

1.80

Barbados

1.08

1.45

1.52

Libya

0.75

1.20

1.43

Puerto Rico (U.S.)

1.03

1.54

1.18

Belgium

5.92

2.00

1.16

United Kingdom

5.45

3.12

1.04

Namibia

1.50

1.00

0.93

Colombia

0.00

0.03

0.92

Bahamas

0.60

0.48

0.78

Argentina

1.31

0.98

0.76

Equatorial Guinea

0.39

0.65

0.71

Paraguay

0.64

0.62

0.65

Algeria

0.25

0.43

0.65

Canada

0.48

0.29

0.33

Uruguay

2.01

2.12

0.28

South Africa

43.72

5.37

0.23

Antigua & Barbuda

0.15

0.18

0.20

Lebanon

0.20

0.14

0.20

Israel

0.33

0.33

0.17

Mozambique

0.08

0.16

0.14

Haiti

0.00

0.00

0.10

Guatemala

0.00

7.20

0.10

Lithuania

0.22

0.17

0.10

Portugal

1.28

0.09

0.08

Nigeria

221.60

0.00

0.05

Mexico

0.00

0.00

0.05

New Zealand

0.05

0.05

0.05

Guinea-Bissau

0.05

0.00

0.03

Aruba

0.07

0.08

0.03

Martinique

0.00

0.00

0.03

Italy

0.01

0.22

0.02

Denmark

0.00

0.00

0.02

France

0.03

0.01

0.01

Brazil Rice Prices

Monthly Rice Prices in Rio Grande do Sul

Prices in R$ per 50 kg bag (type 1, Rio Grande do Sul)

discounted by the CDI/CETIP tax

CY

2011

2012

2013

2014

Jan

22.63

26.31

34.50

36.61

Feb

22.27

27.17

33.79

35.65

Mar

21.29

25.91

31.71

33.83

Apr

19.33

27.02

31.30

35.02

May

19.08

28.15

33.39

36.37

Jun

19.53

28.70

33.84

36.61

Jul

21.80

29.44

34.46

35.96

Aug

23.58

33.05

34.64

36.22

Sep

23.21

37.93

34.21

36.80

Oct

24.36

38.95

33.73

36.74

Nov

25.57

38.32

34.11

37.30

Dec

25.60

36.35

36.01

37.99

Government Support for Commercialization and Export:

In 2013/14 rice production received no government support and neither PEP nor PEPRO are expected to be used in 2014/2015. No government support programs have been used for rice since 2010.

Government Support for Rice(Quantity Unit: 1,000 mt)

Program GOB Year

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

USDA MY

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

Acquisition (AGF)

0.3

0

396.3

0

0

0

PEP

0

143.0

1,538.2

0

0

0

PROP

0

0

0

0

0

0

PEPRO

0

0

64.4

0

0

0

Options

- Round 1

- Round 2

0

0

982.8

385.1

0

0

0

Total

0.3

143.0

2,981.7

0

0

0

Production

12,602.5

12,059.9

13,613

11,599.5

11,750

12,206

Participation %

0%

1%

21.9%

0%

0%

0%