Area and production of grains

MY 2015/16

Total production of wheat, rye, mixed grains, triticale, barley, corn and oats in 2015/16 MY is forecast to decrease by about 7 percent to 29.4 million metric tons (MMT). This is a result of more average yield expectations in comparison with last year's much higher than average results. Weather conditions for winter grain development in Poland were good until the end of March 2015. The winter has been very mild and there have been no winterkill so far. Current planting health is assessed well. Soil moisture is reported to be well enough as well. Total acreage for winter grain plantings is estimated to be at the level of the 2014 year.

MY 2014/15

Poland's 2014 grain production is estimated at 31.7 million metric tons, the third consecutive year of very good grain crops. In 2014 total grain acreage remained on par with 2013 acreage. Favorable weather conditions during the vegetation period and the harvest led to record high yields producing the largest ever grain harvest in Poland. The general grain quality from the harvest 2014 is assessed well, without mycotoxin contamination, but with low protein and gluten content. Comparing with the year 2013, the average quality of grain is assessed lower. Supply of grain for human consumption is projected lower than for feed stuffs.

Area, yields, production of grains total in Poland*

Poland

Area

(million/Ha)

Yield

(MT/Ha)

Total Production (MMT)

2011

7.7

3.46

26.6

2012

7.6

3.73

28.4

2013

7.4

3.84

28.3

2014

7.4

4.30

31.7

2013=100

100.0

112

112.0

2015**

7.3

4.01

29.4

2014=100

0.99

0.93

0.93

Source: Main Statistical Office, Poland

* excluding buckwheat and millet

** FAS/Warsaw forecast

Area of grain sowings in Poland in the years 2012 – 2015, (000) HA

Poland

2012

2013

2014*

2015*

Structure of sowings in 2012

(%)

Structure of sowings in 2014

(%)

Wheat

2,077

2,138

2,339

2,300

27.3

31.7

Rye

1,042

1,173

885

1,000

13.7

12.0

Mixed grains

and triticale

2,270

2,189

2,186

2,100

29.8

29.6

Barley

1,160

820

808

820

15.2

11.0

Corn

544

614

678

660

7.2

9.2

Oats

514

434

480

450

6.8

6.5

Total

7,607

7,368

7,376

7,330

100.0

100.0

Source: Main Statistical Office, Poland

* FAS/Warsaw estimation and forecast

Production of grains in Poland in the years 2012 – 2015, (000) Metric Tons

Poland

2012

2013

2014*

2015*

Structure of production

in 2012

(%)

Structure

of production

in 2014

(%)

Wheat

8,608

9,485

11,600

10,600

30.3

36.6

Rye

2,888

3,359

2,800

2,850

10.2

8.8

Mixed grains

and triticale

7,270

7,295

8,100

7,300

25.6

25.6

Barley

4,181

2,934

3,200

2,950

14.7

10.1

Corn

3,996

4,040

4,500

4,400

14.1

14.2

Oats

1,468

1,190

1,500

1,300

5.2

4.7

Total

28,411

28,303

31,700

29,400

100.0

100.0

Source: Main Statistical Office, Poland

* FAS/Warsaw estimation and forecast

Trade

For 2015/16 Poland's grain export potential is expected to decrease in comparison with last year's, due to a lower crop forecast.

For 2014/15 MY total grain exports are expected to reach 4.8 MMT with the biggest share to soft wheat (64 percent of total grain export volume). In 2014/15 MY wheat export is expected to exceed last year's volume by almost 15 percent mostly due to the relatively good quality of grain and competitive pricing. Saudi Arabia, Germany, Algeria and Morocco are the main export destinations for Poland. The share of non EU exports in total grain export sales from Poland has continued to increase each year with wheat exports developing fastest. Exports of other grains like rye, barley, triticale and corn is forecast to decline for 2014/15 in comparison with 2013/14 MY. A sharp decline of rye exports is predicted for 2014/15 MY. Higher than average yields did not offset the lower acreage of plantings that decreased domestic supply and export potential for rye for Poland.

Poland's main grain and cereal products suppliers are the EU states. Their share of total Polish grain imports is estimated to reach 87 percent in MY 2014/15. For 2014/15 it is forecast that total grain import, including intra EU trade, will amount to 1.1 MMT, less in comparison with last year.

Grain Exports from Poland, (000) MT

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15*

Total exports

Non EU-28 exports

Total exports

Non EU-28 exports

Total

exports

Non EU-28 exports

Wheat

1,472

394

2,685

1,345

3,100

1,950

Rye

574

0

1,046

19

565

15

Corn

1,307

31

925

24

775

25

Barley

412

88

194

114

180

0

Mixed grains & triticale

144

0

264

0

180

0

Oats

75

0

33

2

40

0

Total

3,984

513

5,147

1,504

4,840

1,990

Source: Global Trade Atlas

Grain Imports to Poland, (000) MT

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15*

Total imports

Non EU-28 imports

Total imports

Non EU-28 imports

Total

imports

Non EU-28 imports

Wheat

494

10

759

17

615

15

Rye

15

3

11

5

18

3

Corn

189

87

402

246

250

120

Barley

116

0

268

0

200

0

Mixed grains & triticale

4

0

6

0

3

0

Oats

7

0

17

0

7

0

Total

825

100

1,463

268

1,093

138

MY= Poland's local marketing year of July to June except for corn which follows on October to September calendar