Wheat Production, Trade, Consumption

Poland

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15*

2015/16*

Marketing Year Begin

July, 2012

July, 2013

July, 2014

July, 2015

Area

2,077

2,138

2,339

2,300

(000) HA

Production

8,608

9,485

11,600

10,600

(000) MT

MY Imports

494

759

615

715

(000) MT

MY Imp. From U.S.

0

0

0

0

(000) MT

MY Exports

1,472

2,685

3,100

2,700

(000) MT

Feed

3,000

3,150

3,300

3,500

(000) MT

FSI Consumption

5,405

5,353

5,511

5,364

(000) MT

Total Consumption

8,405

8,503

8,811

8,864

(000) MT

Source: FAS/Warsaw, Global Trade Atlas, Main Statistical Office, Poland

*FAS/Warsaw estimation and forecast

MY 2015/16

For 2015/16 wheat production in Poland is forecast at 10.6 MMT. The acreage of wheat plantings for the harvest 2015 is expected to diminish by 2 percent in comparison with the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to increase due to forecasted growth in feed use. Good weather conditions during a mild winter allow for good yield prospects and for assumption that there will be 3 percent higher yield than the last six years' average.

MY 2014/15

Wheat harvest for 2014 is estimated at 11.6 MMT, 22.3 percent higher than in 2013. High prices for wheat and good profitability of wheat production were the main drivers for growing acreage of wheat sowings in MY 2014/15. Wheat acreage is estimated at 2.3 million hectares. In the season 2014/15, due to a record harvest in 2014, the total supply of wheat is much higher than last year's, even despite the very low initial stocks level. Feed use is expected to show a growing tendency, mostly due to poultry industry development. In 2014 falling prices of feedstuffs created an incentive for hog production. The demand for feed quality wheat increased from both the feed industry and swine producers who prepare on-farm feedstuffs. Human consumption of wheat is forecast to stabilize on last year's level. For 2014/15 Poland is expected to be a meaningful exporter of wheat. The good 2014 harvest of relatively good quality grain created a large surplus of grain for export. In the first five months of MY 2014/15 non EU exports increased by over 70 percent in comparison with last season. Growing demand for soft wheat from Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Morocco was the main driver for such fast export growth dynamics.