INDIA: TOTAL OILSEEDS PSD

OILSEEDS ('000 metric tons)

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16

Revised

Estimate

Forecast

Beginning Stocks

2,218

1,750

1,666

Production

37,780

35,845

40,175

MY Imports

21

1

0

Total Supply

40,019

37,596

41,839

MY Exports

764

677

805

Crush

29,925

27,490

31,560

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,900

2,080

2,250

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

5,680

5,685

5,700

Total Dom. Cons.

37,505

35,255

39,510

Ending Stocks

1,750

1,664

1,524

Total Distribution

40,019

37,596

41,839

Production:

Assuming a normal 2015 southwest monsoon, total MY 2015/16 oilseed production will increase by 12 percent and reach 40.2 MMT. This forecast includes soybeans, rapeseed, mustard, peanuts, sunflower, cottonseed, and copra. Post anticipates that farmers will return acres diverted in the current marketing year back into oilseed production, which will make the out-year and area planted and production levels more consistent with India's five-year average. Additionally, strong market prices for peanuts, rapeseed, and mustard, as compared to the corresponding period last year, should support more planting and lead to higher production. Precipitation during the 2014 southwest monsoon was 12 percent below the long period average (LPA) of 886.9 mm. Last year's deficit rainfall resulted in lower than anticipated levels of oilseed production in MY 2014/15. Note: Minor oilseed crops such as niger, sesamum, and safflower seeds are not broadly covered in this report.

In its current (12th) Five-Year Plan (Indian fiscal year 2012/13 to 2016/17), the National Mission on Oilseeds and Oil Palm (NMOOP) is targeting vegetable oil production to reach 9.51 MMT, a 35-percent increase over the previous Five-Year Plan's average (7.06 MMT). This was initiated in response to India's growing reliance on imported palm oil from Southeast Asia. NMOOP claims that India can achieve greater levels of independence in vegetable oils if it can boost production in various oilseeds, oil palm, and tree borne oilseeds (TBOs). NMOOP implemented three Mini Missions with specific target in Indian fiscal 2014/15:

Mini Mission (MM)

Target of XIIthPlan

MM I (for Oilseeds)

Achieve production of 35.51 MMT and productivity of 1.328 metric tons (MT)/hectare of oilseeds from the present average production & productivity of 28.93 MMT and 1.081 MT/hectare during the Eleventh Plan period respectively.

MM II (for Oil Palm)

Bring additional 125,000 hectares under oil palm cultivation through area expansion in the states, include degraded lands, increase in productivity of fresh fruit brunches (FFBs) from 4,927 kg per hectare to 15,000 kg per hectare.

MM III (for TBO)

Enhance seed collection of TBOs from 0.9 MMT to 1.4 MMT and to augment elite planting materials for area expansion under waste land.

The GOI also seeks to bolster Indian oilseed production through the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) program, which seeks to incentivize states by allocating additional agricultural resources for their respective State Plans. Although in the current fiscal year the GOI allocated INR 45 billion for RKVY, which represents a significant decline from the previous five fiscal years when the GOI allocated INR 79 billion for the program. Provisions under RKVY include the enhanced development of pulses and oilseeds, particularly in rainfed areas, the development of oil palm, and a national mission to promote livestock, dairy, fishery and related sectors. The RKVY program is further supplemented by the states in an effort to enhance oilseed production and productivity. Agriculture remains a state subject in India and the individual states maintain significant autonomy in developing their own agricultural policies.

Consumption:

Food consumption of oilseeds in MY 2015/16 will rise by more than eight percent to 2.3 MMT and will be largely driven by India's growing demand for value-added foods which contain ingredients derived from oilseeds. Examples of these products include vegetarian and non-vegetarian nuggets, snacks, curries, and sauces made from soybeans, rapeseed, mustard, sesamum, and other oilseeds. Oilseed feed waste consumption is also expected to rise marginally to 5.7 MMT, driven largely by cottonseed and soybean waste, which are forecast at 3.4 and 1.3 MMT, respectively. "Waste" broadly includes seeds retained for planting/replanting, as well as feed and industrial uses.

Trade:

India annually exports upwards of $1.5 billion of oilseeds, which include high-value HPS peanuts, soybeans, sesame, niger seed, cottonseed, safflower seed, rapeseed, and mustard. Oilseed exports in MY 2015/16 will grow by 19 percent to 805,000 MT, to include 600,000 MT of peanuts and 200,000 MT of non-genetically engineered (GM) soybeans. Indian Hand Picked Select (HPS) peanuts are seeing strong demand peanuts in Southeast Asia and India's neighboring countries. Indian soybeans are finding niche markets in the United States, Canada, France, South Korea, and Europe. Although oilseeds can technically be imported into India without quantitative restrictions, they typically face high tariffs and onerous phytosanitary restrictions. The Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) and Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC) are jointly working to raise international awareness of Indian oilseeds (namely peanuts) among different stakeholders and address quality-related concerns. APEDA has issued export guidelines for peanuts and peanut products, including information on registration for peanut units and/or warehouse, as well as issuance of export certificates by IOPEPC. Details can be accessed from APEDA website.

Stocks:

India's total oilseed inventory in MY 2015/16 will contract by 8.4 percent to 1.5 MMT as domestic consumption growth is outpacing production. Except for commercial buying, oilseed stocks held by the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) will likely remain low, as market prices in MY 2014/15 have trended above the minimum support price (MSP). Privately-held stocks are also expected to be modest. The GOI Commission for Agriculture Costs & Prices has recommended an increase in the oilseed MSP for crop year 2014/15 (July-June) as to boost output.

India: Open Market Prices vis-à-vis Minimum Support Price

Commodity

Minimum Support Price#(Rs/100 kg)

Market Price* in 2014/15

2014-15

2013-14

2012-13

Soybean

2,500 (black) 2,560 (yellow)

2,500 (black) 2,560 (yellow)

2,200 (black) 2,240 (yellow)

2,900–3,300 [-9%]

Rapeseed/mustard

3,100

3,050

3,000

3,300-3,500 [5.2%]

Peanut (in shell)

4,000

4,000

3,700

4,000-4,300 [11%]

Sunflower seed

3,750

3,700

3,700

3,200-3,300 [-1.6%]

*Average wholesale market price (Rs/quintal) across major centers during 2014/15

#: Minimum Support Price

Figures in square brackets reflect prevailing market prices versus corresponding period last year.

Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics and Directorate of Agricultural Marketing, GOI.

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Soybean, PSD(Area in 1000 HA and production in 1000 MT)

Oilseed, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

12,200

12,200

11,000

10,908

0

11,500

Area Harvested

12,200

12,200

10,908

10,908

0

0

Beginning Stocks

1,135

1,135

606

606

0

776

Production

9,500

9,500

9,800

9,800

0

12,500

MY Imports

4

4

2

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

10,639

10,639

10,408

10,406

0

13,276

MY Exports

183

183

250

200

0

200

MY Exp. to EU

21

21

18

20

0

25

Crush

8,300

8,300

7,500

7,500

0

10,400

Food Use Dom. Cons.

550

550

650

630

0

700

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,000

1,000

1,300

1,300

0

1,300

Total Dom. Cons.

9,850

9,850

9,450

9,430

0

12,400

Ending Stocks

606

606

708

776

0

676

Total Distribution

10,639

10,639

10,408

10,406

0

13,276

CY Imports

5

5

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

200

10

200

200

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

127

0

130

140

0

0

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Rapeseed, PSD(Area in 1000 HA and production in 1000 MT)

Oilseed, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

6,800

7,130

6,600

6,517

0

7,000

Area Harvested

7,130

7,130

6,600

6,517

0

7,000

Beginning Stocks

569

569

618

539

0

109

Production

7,300

7,300

7,100

6,800

0

7,500

MY Imports

0

20

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

7,869

7,889

7,718

7,339

0

7,609

MY Exports

1

0

0

0

0

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

6,300

6,300

6,200

6,100

0

6,300

Food Use Dom. Cons.

650

750

650

800

0

850

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

300

300

250

330

0

350

Total Dom. Cons.

7,250

7,350

7,100

7,230

0

7,500

Ending Stocks

618

539

618

109

0

104

Total Distribution

7,869

7,889

7,718

7,339

0

7,609

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Peanut, PSD (Area in 1000 hectares and production in 1000 MT)

Oilseed, Peanut

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

5,400

5,400

4,600

4,560

0

5,200

Area Harvested

5,400

5,400

4,600

4,560

0

5,200

Beginning Stocks

18

18

137

139

0

215

Production

5,650

6,500

4,800

5,200

0

6,300

MY Imports

1

1

0

1

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5,669

6,519

4,937

5,340

0

6,515

MY Exports

787

580

525

475

0

600

MY Exp. to EU

20

20

20

20

0

30

Crush

3,700

4,600

3,500

3,500

0

4,500

Food Use Dom. Cons.

630

600

600

650

0

700

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

415

600

275

500

0

550

Total Dom. Cons.

4,745

5,800

4,375

4,650

0

5,750

Ending Stocks

137

139

37

215

0

165

Total Distribution

5,669

6,519

4,937

5,340

0

6,515

CY Imports

1

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

885

477

525

400

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Cottonseed, PSD (Area in 1000 hectares and production in 1000 MT)

Oilseed, Cottonseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted (Cotton)

11,700

11,700

12,700

12,700

0

12,000

Area Harvested (Cotton)

11,700

11,700

12,700

12,700

0

12,000

Seed to Lint Ratio

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

496

496

595

470

0

568

Production

12,950

13,175

12,700

12,900

0

12,540

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

13,446

13,671

13,295

13,370

0

13,108

MY Exports

1

1

2

2

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

9,100

9,500

9,400

9,300

0

9,100

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

3,750

3,700

3,400

3,500

0

3,425

Total Dom. Cons.

12,850

13,200

12,800

12,800

0

12,525

Ending Stocks

595

470

493

568

0

583

Total Distribution

13,446

13,671

13,295

13,370

0

13,108

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1

0

2

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Sunflowerseed, PSD(Area in 1000 HA and production in 1000 MT)

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

830

685

550

525

0

750

Area Harvested

750

680

550

525

0

750

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

670

600

500

435

0

620

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

670

600

500

435

0

620

MY Exports

4

0

4

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

585

520

460

380

0

545

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

81

80

36

55

0

75

Total Dom. Cons.

666

600

496

435

0

620

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

670

600

500

435

0

620

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

4

0

4

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oilseed, Copra, PSD (Area in 1000 HAand production in 1000 MT)

Oilseed, Copra

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

1,940

2,160

1,940

2,185

0

2,210

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

670

705

670

710

0

715

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

670

705

670

710

0

715

MY Exports

10

0

15

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

660

705

655

710

0

715

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

660

705

655

710

0

715

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

670

705

670

710

0

715

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

18

1

20

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0