INDIA: TOTAL OILMEALS PSD

OILMEALS ('000 Metric Tons)

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16

Revised

Estimate

Forecast

Crush

29,925

27,490

31,560

Beginning Stocks

377

381

381

Production

17,164

15,805

18,631

MY Imports

54

45

60

Total Supply

17,595

16,231

19,072

MY Exports

3,854

3,037

5,135

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

220

520

620

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

13,140

12,293

12,997

Total Dom. Cons.

13,360

12,813

13,617

Ending Stocks

381

381

320

Total Distribution

17,595

16,231

19,072

Production:

Indian oilmeal production in MY 2015/16 will rise by 18 percent over MY 2014/15 and reach 18.6 MMT. Increases in total oilseed production and growing consumption demand (both domestic and international) will support higher oilmeal production. However, oilmeal production in the current marketing year will drop by four percent from last year (MY 2013/14). This is due to slower sales from farmers, who anticipate of stronger bean prices ahead, a late harvest, and weaker processing margins caused by growing vegetable oil imports and/or limited availability of oilseeds for crush. Generally, an estimated 80 percent of India's total oilseed supply is crushed for oil and meal production. Although Indian oilmeal is commonly used for both livestock feed and human food products, specific end-use allocations for Indian oilmeal tend to vary based on supply availability and international demand during the marketing year.

Consumption:

Total oilmeal consumption in MY 2015/16 is forecast to rise by 6.3 percent to 13.6 MMT, to include 4.4 MMT of soymeal, 4.2 MMT of cottonseed (mostly used for livestock feed), 2.6 MMT of rapeseed meal, 1.8 MMT million tons of peanut meal, and 600,000 MT of other oil meals. Tight supplies in the current marketing year of MY 2014/15 will limit consumption to 12.6 MMT. Domestic and international sales will be marginal. Domestic feed use of oilmeal is moderated to reflect current industry estimates, although the poultry sector continues to grow modestly year-on-year.

Although India's poultry sector has struggled with high production costs and slim profit margins during the most recent two years, stable feed prices should support demand expansion for poultry products. Generally, high feed prices lead to demand compression and prompt feed manufacturers to shift to unconventional feed ingredients, which can put pressure on prices of daily protein staples such as eggs, milk, meat, etc. India's organized feed industry uses soybean and rapeseed meals, as well as peanuts and sunflower seeds, in various formulations. In addition to animal feeds, oil meals like soybean meal are increasingly used in processed food products, healthcare products, and also as low-cost, high-protein supplements. Soybean meal is widely used as texturized protein (chunks, flakes, and nuggets), to fortify other food products (wheat flours, biscuits etc.), or for soy protein isolates (which can achieve a protein content of 90 percent or more and is used as a substitute for animal protein).

Trade:

Assuming normal market conditions, Indian oilmeal exports in MY 2015/16 are forecast to rise by 2.1 MMT to 5.1 MMT. However, the potential to export will be limited by strong domestic demand and stiff competition from international oilmeal suppliers. During the first five months of MY 2014/15, oilmeal exports dropped by 56 percent, mainly due to reduced demand for Indian oilmeal, particularly soybean meal. Cheaper soybean meal from other international suppliers has cut into India's soymeal export prospects. Historically, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, and Iran have been major buyers of Indian oilmeals. Indian organic rapeseed and mustard meals continue to find new markets in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.

India: Oilmeal Exports, In Thousand Metric Tons

Soybean meal

Rapeseed meal

Peanut meal

Sunflower meal

Total

Oct-14

29,071

140,393

263

0

169,727

Nov-14

110,806

39,133

788

0

150,727

Dec-14

193,832

129,707

665

0

324,204

Jan-15

104,426

44,361

512

0

149,299

Feb-15

64,514

62,545

63

0

127,122

Mar-15

45,917

64,668

0

0

110,585

Road Transport*

220,000

23,500

0

0

243,500

Oct 14-Mar-15

768,566

480,807

2,291

0

1,251,664

Oct 13-Mar-14

2,268,654

544,382

1,343

0

2,814,379

% Change

-66

-12

71

-56

Source: Solvent Extractors' Association of India Includes soybean meal surface transport during corresponding period recorded at 406,150 MT

*: Estimated

Geographical proximity to Asia and the Middle East, the ability to ship in smaller vessels, high protein content (48 percent in soybean meal), and a marketing strategy focused on non-GE has enhance India's comparative advantage as an oil meal exporter.

Policy:

Last year, the GOI exempted certain oil cakes and oilmeals, including products like de-oiled soya extract, peanut oil cake and oil cake meal, sunflower oil cake and oil cake meal, canola oil cake and oil cake meal, mustard oil cake and oil cake meal rice bran and rice bran oil cake meal, and palm kernel cake from import duties through December 2014. However, to date, the GOI has not extended the exemption and these products have all reverted to an applied tariff rate of 15 percent. While there are no quantitative restrictions on oilmeal imports, the availability of other cheap substitutes continues to generally discourage imports (which were also true prior to December 2014 when these products entered duty free). Exports of rapeseed meal to China have not resumed, as there are persisting issues regarding the bilateral protocol.

In the Union Budget 2015/16, GOI-allocated funding for the Integrated Child Development Service (ICDS) and Mid-Day Meal was reduced from last year. However, the Minister of Finance noted in his February 2015 budget speech that the GOI will try to provide additional funding for these social welfare programs, provide that additional resources become available through tax revenues. ICDS and the Mid-Day Meal program, along with the National Nutrition Mission, Rashtriya Madhayamik Shiksa Abhiyaan (RMSA), seek to promote nutritious and protein-rich foods. Several state governments are also actively promoting increased consumption of low-cost, high-protein supplements derived from soybeans. The GOI in its most recently published foreign trade policy (2015-2020) merged all the export subsidies under the "Merchandise Export from India Scheme" (MEIS). The intent is to encourage value addition and strengthen the GOI's "Make in India" campaign. Previously, there were five different programs for subsidizing exports, along with different kinds of duty structure. Before the announcement, soybean meal fell under the focused product scheme with two percent export subsidy. With the introduction of MEIS, the GOI increased this reward percentage to five percent on many products including the soymeal. This was not done exclusively on soymeal only but some other soy products and almost all the oilseed meals. The export subsidy is payable as percentage of realized FOB value of the exported goods under this scheme and can be settled against other incurred import duties, excise taxes, service taxes, etc. and are freely transferable.

India: List of Oilseed Products with MEIS Reward

S.No

Description of Goods

MEIS Reward in %

Country Group Code A

Country Group Code B

Country Group Code C

1.

Flours and Meals of Soybean

5

5

5

2.

Soya Sauce

5

5

5

3.

Protein Concentrates And Textured Protein Substances

5

5

5

4.

Soya Milk Drinks W/N Sweetened or Flavored

5

5

5

5.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Of Soya Bean Expeller Variety

5

5

5

6.

Oil Cake Of Soybean, Solvent Extracted (Defatted) Variety

5

5

5

7.

Meal Of Soybean, Solvent Extracted (Defatted) Variety

5

5

5

8.

Other Solid Residues Resulting From Of Extraction Soybean Oil

5

5

5

9.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Of Ground-Nut Expeller Variety

5

5

5

10.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Of Groundnut Solvent Extracted Varity (Defatted)

5

5

5

11.

Other Solid Residues Resulting From Extraction Of Groundnut Oil

5

5

5

12.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Decorticated Expeller Variety Of Cotton Seeds

5

5

5

13.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Decorticated, Solvent Extracted (Defatted) Variety of Cotton Seeds

5

5

5

14.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Un-decorticated Expeller Variety Of Cotton Seeds

5

5

5

15.

Oil-Cake and Oil-Cake Meal Un-decorticated Solvent Extracted (Defatted) Variety of Cotton Seeds

5

5

5

16.

Other Residues Of Cotton Seed

5

5

5

17.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Of Linseed Solvent Extracted (Defatted) Variety

5

5

5

18.

Other Residues Of Linseed

5

5

5

19.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Of Sunflower Seed Expeller Variety

5

5

5

20.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Of Sunflower Seed Solvent Extracted (Defatted) Variety

5

5

5

21.

Other Residues Of Linseed

5

5

5

22.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal Of Mustard Seeds Expeller Variety

5

5

5

23.

Oil-Cake And Oil-Cake Meal of Seasamum Seeds Expeller Variety

5

5

5

24.

Oil Cake And Meal Of Castor Seeds Expeller Variety

5

5

5

25.

Glycerol Monostearate

2

2

0

26.

Lecithins

2

2

0

India: Commodity, Meal, Soybean, PSD (Units in 1000 MT, Extraction rate in Percent)

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

8,300

8,300

7,500

7,500

0

10,400

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.8000

0.8000

0.8000

0.8000

0.0000

0.8000

Beginning Stocks

347

347

202

202

0

302

Production

6,640

6,640

6,000

6,000

0

8,320

MY Imports

7

7

7

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,994

6,994

6,209

6,202

0

8,622

MY Exports

2,742

2,742

1,450

1,800

0

4,100

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

200

200

260

500

0

600

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

3,850

3,850

4,100

3,600

0

3,800

Total Dom. Cons.

4,050

4,050

4,360

4,100

0

4,400

Ending Stocks

202

202

399

302

0

122

Total Distribution

6,994

6,994

6,209

6,202

0

8,622

CY Imports

7

7

7

0

0

5

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2,950

2,950

3,000

3,800

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

4,050

4,050

4,360

4,100

0

4,400

India: Commodity, Meal, Rapeseed, PSD (Units in 1000 MT, Extraction rate in Percent)

Meal, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

6,300

6,300

6,200

6,100

0

6,300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.5905

0.5905

0.5903

0.5902

0.0000

0.5903

Beginning Stocks

30

30

20

179

0

79

Production

3,720

3,720

3,660

3,600

0

3,719

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,750

3,750

3,680

3,779

0

3,798

MY Exports

1,327

1,071

1,000

1,200

0

1,000

MY Exp. to EU

2

0

2

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

2,403

2,500

2,660

2,500

0

2,600

Total Dom. Cons.

2,403

2,500

2,660

2,500

0

2,600

Ending Stocks

20

179

20

79

0

198

Total Distribution

3,750

3,750

3,680

3,779

0

3,798

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

1,200

800

1,000

800

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

1,710

1,779

1,893

1,779

0

1,850

India: Commodity, Meal, Peanut, PSD (Units in 1000 MT, Extraction rate in Percent)

Meal, Peanut

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

3,700

4,600

3,500

3,500

0

4,500

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3905

0.4000

0.3900

0.4000

0.0000

0.4000

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

1,445

1,840

1,365

1,400

0

1,800

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,445

1,840

1,365

1,400

0

1,800

MY Exports

8

2

5

2

0

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

5

10

5

10

0

10

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,432

1,828

1,355

1,388

0

1,785

Total Dom. Cons.

1,437

1,838

1,360

1,398

0

1,795

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

1,445

1,840

1,365

1,400

0

1,800

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

7

2

5

3

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

1,615

2,066

1,529

1,571

0

2,018

India: Commodity, Meal, Cottonseed, PSD(Units in 1000 MT, Extraction rate in Percent)

Meal, Cottonseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

9,100

9,500

9,400

9,300

0

9,100

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4681

0.4691

0.4681

0.4691

0.0000

0.4691

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

4,260

4,456

4,400

4,363

0

4,269

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4,260

4,456

4,400

4,363

0

4,269

MY Exports

39

39

35

35

0

30

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

4,221

4,417

4,365

4,328

0

4,239

Total Dom. Cons.

4,221

4,417

4,365

4,328

0

4,239

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

4,260

4,456

4,400

4,363

0

4,269

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

33

33

35

35

0

30

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

3,420

3,579

3,537

3,507

0

3,435

India: Commodity, Meal, Sunflowerseed, PSD (Units in 1000 MT, Extraction rate in Percent)

Meal, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

585

520

460

380

0

545

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4786

0.4808

0.4783

0.4789

0.0000

0.4789

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

280

250

220

182

0

261

MY Imports

41

0

40

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

321

250

260

182

0

261

MY Exports

6

0

5

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

315

250

255

182

0

261

Total Dom. Cons.

315

250

255

182

0

261

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

321

250

260

182

0

261

CY Imports

44

27

40

30

0

30

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

6

0

5

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

297

236

241

172

0

246

India: Commodity, Meal, Copra, PSD(Units in 1000 MT, Extraction rate in Percent)

Meal, Copra

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

652

705

655

710

0

715

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3528

0.3660

0.3538

0.3662

0.0000

0.3664

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

230

258

230

260

0

262

MY Imports

47

47

40

45

0

60

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

277

305

270

305

0

322

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

0

10

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

267

295

260

295

0

312

Total Dom. Cons.

277

305

270

305

0

322

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

277

305

270

305

0

322

CY Imports

40

30

40

40

0

40

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

125

138

122

138

0

145