INDIA: TOTAL OILS PSD

OILS ('000 Metric Tons)

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15

MY 2015/16

Revised

Estimate

Forecast

Crush

29,925

27,490

31,560

Beginning Stocks

1,393

1,775

1,650

Production

7,765

7,102

8,086

MY Imports

11,393

12,700

12,920

Total Supply

20,551

21,577

22,656

MY Exports

6

7

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

685

735

865

Food Use Dom. Cons.

18,085

19,185

20,250

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

18,770

19,920

21,115

Ending Stocks

1,775

1,650

1,541

Total Distribution

20,551

21,577

22,656

Production

Total vegetable oil production in MY 2015/16 will increase by 14 percent to 8.0 MMT. An anticipated increase in production and crushing, particularly for rapeseed, mustard, and peanut oil, will contribute to an increase in total vegetable oil production. However, for MY 2014/15 Post estimates vegetable oil production will fall to 7.1 MMT, an 8.5 percent decline from MY 2013/14 due to limited availability of oilseeds for crush. The production basket includes 2.5 MMT of rapeseed oil, 1.3 MMT of soybean oil, 1.3 MMT for cottonseed oil, 1.2 MMT of peanut oil, and 800,000 MT of coconut, palm and sunflower oils.

Consumption:

Vegetable oil consumption in the forecast year will increase by six percent to 21.1 MMT. The anticipated higher consumption is based on rising demand among households, restaurants, food-based industries usage, as well as higher levels of disposable income and India's growing population. India's per capita edible oil consumption is currently estimated at 15.53 kg in MY 2014/15. While this reflects an increase, it remains below the world average consumption rate of 23.73 kg per capita. Vegetable oil consumption in MY 2014/15 is estimated at 19.9 MMT, which includes 8.8 MMT of palm oil, 3.4 MMT of soy oil, 2.7 MMT of rapeseed and mustard oil, 1.8 MMT of sunflower, 1.4 MMT of peanut oil, and 1.8 MMT of other available oils. Palm oil will continue to be the largest consumed vegetable oil because of price competitiveness, versatility in blending, and broad uses among food (margarine, biscuits, breads, breakfast cereals, instant noodles, chocolate, and ice cream) and non-food (shampoo, cosmetics, candles, and detergents) sectors.

Healthier Cooking Oils for Diverse Consumer Preference

Given India's diversity and consumer tastes, preferences vary widely from one region to the next. Coconut, peanut and sunflower oils are widely consumed in south India, peanut and cottonseed oils are more prevalent in Gujarat and Maharashtra, rapeseed oil in Northeast and Northwest India, while soybean oil prevails in central India, and rice bran oil in eastern India.

Most edible oils are purchased by households or by institutional users (food processors, restaurants and hotels) and are sold in loose form or as vanaspati, a partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Vegetable oil sold in loose form is often repacked and re-sold under different private labels. However, the percentage of refined oils that are directly branded and packaged by the refiners is also growing, as consumers increasingly perceive branded oils to be of better quality and more healthful. According to industry sources, 35 to 40 percent of the edible oil currently sold in India is branded. Branded edible oils sold in low-volume, low-priced packages or sachets are selling well, a development which indicates a growing preference among consumers for branded products. Given India's young, more educated, and affluent population, some edible oil manufacturers are promoting fortified refined palmolein, safflower, olive, and rice bran oils as more healthful products. These same manufactures blend the abovementioned oils with palm and/or other traditional oils to create new marketing opportunities. Cottonseed oil is also becoming more popular due to its light color, neutral odor, and blending characteristics with other oils.

Trade:

India will import 12.9 MMT of vegetable oil in MY 2015/16, consisting of 9.4 MMT of palm oil, 1.8 MMT of soybean, and 1.7 MMT of sunflower seed oils. Since consumption is outpacing production, the demand for imports is also rising annually. Incidentally, India is the world's largest importer of edible vegetable oil, followed by the EU-27 and China. During first five months of the current marketing year, vegetable oil imports rose 23 percent to 5.4 MMT. Based on current import trends, vegetable oil imports in MY 2014/15 are estimated at 12.7 MMT, 12 percent above last year. Total imports surged due to large inflows of (mostly) crude palm oil (CPO). Indian importers were encouraged to stock up on their vegetable oil inventories due to lower than anticipated domestic oilseed production and the uncertain availability of low-cost palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. The zero export duties imposed on value-added palm products by Indonesia and Malaysia, coupled with reduced demand for CPO as a feedstock by Indian biodiesel refiners, has encouraged shipments of value-added palm products to India. Notably, import growth between the current and forecast years is incremental, as higher oilseed production and a larger oilseed crush will offset some imports. Sesame seed oil is a premium product and is exported in small but increasingly significant quantities. According to industry sources, Indian sesame oil exports in MY 2013/14 were worth $16 million, an increase of 24 percent over previous year. Mexico, China, Taiwan, Singapore, and the United States constitute the major buyers of Indian sesame oil.

India: Edible Oil Imports, In Thousand Metric Tons

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Oct 14- Feb 15

Oct 13 - Feb14

% Change

RBD Palm olein

143

56

45

70

81

395

860

-54

Crude palm oil

712

713

779

581

423

3,208

2,462

30

Crude palm olein

0

779

0

0

0

0

0

-

Crude Palm kern oil

10

581

13

8

6

64

57

12

Total palm oil

866

797

836

659

510

3,667

3,379

9

Crude soybean oil

219

121

97

224

240

901

436

107

Refined soybean oil

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total soy oil

219

121

97

224

240

901

436

107

Crude sun oil

101

194

152

156

63

666

540

23

Refined sun oil

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total sun oil

101

194

152

156

63

666

540

23

Canola Rape oil

45

37

36

44

32

194

69

180

Cottonseed Oil

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Safflower oil

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

-100

Coconut oil

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-

Grand Total

1,230

1,149

1,122

1,083

845

5,429

4,426

23

Source: Solvent Extractors' Association of India

Policy:

Policy Developments

  • As per Customs Notification No. 34/2014 dated December 24, 2014, import tariffs on crude and refined vegetable oils are raised by five percent, to 7.5 percent and 15 percent, respectively.
  • As per, Customs Notification No. 37/2014, the GOI seeks to amend notification No. 53/2011-Customs dated July 01, 2011, as to provide deeper tariff concessions for certain specified Malaysian goods under the India-Malaysia Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (IMCECA) w.e.f. 01.01.2015. The agreement also covers crude and refined palm oils (S. No 129 and 130) and will give more leeway to exports from Malaysia.
  • As per Commerce Notification No. 108(RE-2013) 2009-2014 dated February 6, 2015, the minimum export price for exports of edible oils in branded consumer packs up to five kg has been reduced from $1,100 to $900 per MT.

The only biotech food product currently authorized for import into India is soybean oil derived from glyphosate-tolerant soybeans. On June 22, 2007, the Genetically Engineered Appraisal Committee (GEAC) permanently approved for imports of soybean oil derived from glyphosate-tolerant soybeans for human consumption after refining. Also, as Bt cotton now accounts for over 90 percent of the total cotton produced in India, most of the cottonseed oil produced and consumed in India is derived from Bt cotton.

India: Import Duty Structure on Edible Oils, In Percent

Vegetable Oils

Duty

E.C

S.A.D

Effective Duty

Vanaspati (Partially hydrogenated fat)

7.5

3

4

12.03

Crude Palm Oil and Crude Olein

7.5

3

0

7.73

Crude Soy Oil (degummed)

7.5

3

0

7.73

Crude Sunflower Oil

7.5

3

0

7.73

Crude Rapeseed oil

7.5

3

0

7.73

RBD Palmolein

15

3

0

15.48

Refined Rapeseed Oil

15

3

0

15.48

Refined Sunflower Oil & Other Oils

15

3

0

15.48

Refined Soybean Oil

15

3

0

15.48

(E.C- Educational Cess, S.A.D. – Special Additional Duty) Source: Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance, Government of India

India: Vegetable Oil Reference Price as on March 13, 2015

Vegetable Oils

$/Metric Ton

Crude Palm Oil

686

RBD Palm Oil

703

Other-Palm Oil

695

Crude Palmolein

707

RBD Palmolein

710

Other-Palmolein

709

Crude Soybean Oil

800

Note: Tariff values are revised from time to time by the GOI to reflect changes in international prices

The import duty is applied to the current tariff value rather than to the actual invoice value

India: Commodity, Oil, Soybean, PSD (Units in 1000 MT and Extraction rate in Percent)

Oil, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

8,300

8,300

7,500

7,500

0

10,400

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.1781

0.1761

0.1773

0.1760

0.0000

0.1760

Beginning Stocks

248

248

255

339

0

259

Production

1,478

1,462

1,330

1,320

0

1,830

MY Imports

1,830

1,830

2,000

2,000

0

1,800

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

2

2

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,556

3,540

3,585

3,659

0

3,889

MY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3,300

3,200

3,400

3,400

0

3,600

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Ending Stocks

3,300

3,200

3,400

3,400

0

3,600

Total Distribution

255

339

185

259

0

289

CY Imports

3,556

3,540

3,585

3,659

0

3,889

CY Imp. from U.S.

1,600

1,000

2,000

1,100

0

0

CY Exports

0

15

0

15

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

1

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oil, Rapeseed, PSD (Unit in 1000 MT and Extraction rate in Percent)

Oil, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

6,300

6,300

6,200

6,100

0

6,300

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3968

0.4097

0.3952

0.4103

0.0000

0.4103

Beginning Stocks

113

113

165

284

0

355

Production

2,500

2,581

2,450

2,503

0

2,585

MY Imports

160

160

250

300

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,773

2,854

2,865

3,087

0

2,940

MY Exports

3

0

3

2

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

70

70

80

80

0

80

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2,535

2,500

2,650

2,650

0

2,700

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,605

2,570

2,730

2,730

0

2,780

Ending Stocks

165

284

132

355

0

160

Total Distribution

2,773

2,854

2,865

3,087

0

2,940

CY Imports

260

0

250

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

3

0

3

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oil, Peanut, PSD (Unit in 1000 MT and Extraction rate in Percent)

Oil, Peanut

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

3,700

4,600

3,500

3,500

0

4,500

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3297

0.3400

0.3286

0.3400

0.0000

0.3400

Beginning Stocks

10

10

10

254

0

24

Production

1,220

1,564

1,150

1,190

0

1,530

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,230

1,574

1,160

1,444

0

1,554

MY Exports

5

5

15

5

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

15

10

15

0

20

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,205

1,300

1,125

1,400

0

1,500

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,215

1,315

1,135

1,415

0

1,520

Ending Stocks

10

254

10

24

0

34

Total Distribution

1,230

1,574

1,160

1,444

0

1,554

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

15

0

5

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oil, Cottonseed, PSD (Unit in 1000 MT and Extraction rate in Percent)

Oil, Cottonseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

9,100

9,500

9,400

9,300

0

9,100

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.1434

0.1434

0.1436

0.1434

0.0000

0.1434

Beginning Stocks

48

48

58

110

0

99

Production

1,305

1,362

1,350

1,334

0

1,305

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,353

1,410

1,408

1,444

0

1,404

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

45

40

45

45

0

45

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,250

1,260

1,300

1,300

0

1,300

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,295

1,300

1,345

1,345

0

1,345

Ending Stocks

58

110

63

99

0

59

Total Distribution

1,353

1,410

1,408

1,444

0

1,404

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oil, Sunflower seed, PSD (Unit in 1000 MT and Extraction rate in Percent)

Oil, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

585

520

460

380

0

545

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3590

0.3615

0.3543

0.3553

0.0000

0.3541

Beginning Stocks

116

116

172

232

0

167

Production

210

188

163

135

0

193

MY Imports

1,528

1,528

1,550

1,600

0

1,700

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,854

1,832

1,885

1,967

0

2,060

MY Exports

2

0

2

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1,680

1,600

1,775

1,800

0

1,900

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,680

1,600

1,775

1,800

0

1,900

Ending Stocks

172

232

108

167

0

160

Total Distribution

1,854

1,832

1,885

1,967

0

2,060

CY Imports

1,628

1,084

1,600

1,200

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oil, Coconut, PSD (Unit in 1000 MT and Extraction rate in Percent)

Oil, Coconut

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

652

705

655

710

0

715

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.6150

0.6199

0.6137

0.6197

0.0000

0.6196

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

2

0

12

Production

401

437

402

440

0

443

MY Imports

3

0

3

0

0

20

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

404

437

405

442

0

475

MY Exports

7

0

5

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

182

210

185

195

0

220

Food Use Dom. Cons.

215

225

215

235

0

250

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

397

435

400

430

0

470

Ending Stocks

0

2

0

12

0

5

Total Distribution

404

437

405

442

0

475

CY Imports

4

2

3

15

0

15

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

7

5

5

5

0

5

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

India: Commodity, Oil, Palm, PSD(Unit in 1000 MT and Extraction rate in Percent)

Oil, Palm

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

858

858

528

554

0

734

Production

50

171

50

180

0

200

MY Imports

7,820

7,875

8,900

8,800

0

9,400

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8,728

8,904

9,478

9,534

0

10,334

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

350

350

400

400

0

500

Food Use Dom. Cons.

7,850

8,000

8,600

8,400

0

9,000

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

8,200

8,350

9,000

8,800

0

9,500

Ending Stocks

528

554

478

734

0

834

Total Distribution

8,728

8,904

9,478

9,534

0

10,334

CY Imports

8,200

7,100

8,700

7,100

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0