Canada: Total Oilmeals

2015/2016(f)

Canola (Rapeseed)

Soybean

Total

Crush

7,600

1,600

9,200

Production

4,300

1,260

5,560

Imports

12

1,000

1,012

Exports

3,690

240

3,930

2014/2015 (e)

Canola (Rapeseed)

Soybean

Total

Crush

7,100

1,600

8,700

Production

4,000

1,260

5,260

Imports

12

950

962

Exports

3,585

250

3,835

2013/2014

Canola (Rapeseed)

Soybean

Total

Crush

6,979

1,539

8,518

Production

3,966

1,206

5,172

Imports

11

933

944

Exports

3,425

113

3,538

All data in 1,000 metric tons.

Marketing year: Aug-July

Canola crush is forecast to rise in 2015/2016 due to increased domestic capacity, while soybean crush is forecast to remain at levels similar to those expected for 2014/2015. As a result, total meal production is forecast to increase to 5.56 MMT, an increase of 5 percent above year 2014/2015 anticipated levels of 5.26 MMT. This trend towards increased crush is reflective of the increased crush capacity that has been built up in Canada over the last 5 years, high domestic supplies and good crush margins. Exports of meal and domestic consumption of meal will be influenced by the outcome of the dispute settlement panel on Country of Origin Labelling (COOL) as it may impact the flow of livestock across the border and therefore affect feed demand. At this time, increased meal production and the depreciation of the Canadian dollar supports an increase in total meal exports in 2015/2016 to 3.93 MMT from 2014/2015 anticipated export levels of 3.84 MMT. Meal imports in 2015/2016 are forecasted to remain close to 2014/2015 levels due to ample domestic supplies.

CANOLA (RAPESEED) MEAL

Production Supply and Distribution Estimates:

Meal, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Canada

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

6,979

6,979

7,200

7,100

0

7,600

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.5639

0.5683

0.5639

0.5634

0

0.5658

Beginning Stocks

101

101

128

128

0

55

Production

3,925

3,966

4,060

4,000

0

4,300

MY Imports

11

11

10

12

0

12

MY Imp. from U.S.

9

9

8

9

0

9

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4,037

4,078

4,198

4,140

0

4,367

MY Exports

3,424

3,425

3,450

3,585

0

3,690

MY Exp. to EU

40

21

40

25

0

25

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

485

525

587

500

0

500

Total Dom. Cons.

485

525

587

500

0

500

Ending Stocks

128

128

161

55

0

177

Total Distribution

4,037

4,078

4,198

4,140

0

4,367

1000 MT, PERCENT

The Canola Council sees adding value to the canola meal as an opportunity to increase the profitability of the industry as a whole. The industry has been working on how canola could be used as a partial substitute for soybean meal. Canola meal has shown a great deal of success with increasing milk productivity in dairy cows; however, dairy in Canada is limited due to policies which restrict supply. In addition, high beef prices have meant that more Canadian cattle have been moving to export markets at a younger age resulting in fewer cows to feed. For these reasons, domestic usage for feed is expected to fall slightly in 2014/2015 and remain flat in 2015/2016. While there may be an opportunity to use canola meal as a substitute in animal feed, success in this will depend on Canada`s ability to convince consumers of the value of canola meal in animal feed. Nearly all canola meal is exported to the United States and has been growing year over year. Strong domestic supplies and a depreciated Canadian dollar is expected to support canola meal exports in 2015/2016. Canola meal exports are forecast to reach 3.69 MMT, an increase over 2014/2015 anticipated export levels of 3.59 MMT.

SOYBEAN MEAL

Production Supply and Distribution Estimates:

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Canada

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

1,537

1,539

1,675

1,600

0

1,600

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.7872

0.7836

0.7881

0.7875

0

0.7875

Beginning Stocks

37

37

18

113

0

33

Production

1,210

1,206

1,320

1,260

0

1,260

MY Imports

982

962

975

950

0

1,000

MY Imp. from U.S.

968

950

975

950

0

950

MY Imp. from EU

0

2

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,229

2,205

2,313

2,323

0

2,293

MY Exports

241

204

250

250

0

240

MY Exp. to EU

75

77

75

100

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,970

1,888

2,040

2,040

0

2,040

Total Dom. Cons.

1,970

1,888

2,040

2,040

0

2,040

Ending Stocks

18

113

23

33

0

13

Total Distribution

2,229

2,205

2,313

2,323

0

2,293

1000 MT, PERCENT

Soybean meal produced in Canada is for the most part consumed by the domestic livestock industry. Domestic consumption in 2015/2016 is forecast to remain close to anticipated 2014/2015 levels due to the fact that there is little indication that provincial policies in Western Canada restricting hog expansion are likely to change soon. The degree of uncertainty (COOL outcome, recovery of US hog industry) is making Canadian livestock producers in other provinces very cautious about expanding, despite attractive hog prices. For 2014/2015, export data to date (August to January) suggests soymeal exports are well above average, reflective of the depreciated Canadian dollar and the recovering hog industry in the United States.